Holy Bull Stakes 2022: Odds and analysis

Gulfstream Park kicks off their series of three official qualifying races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby with the Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull. The nine 3-year-olds that drew into the field will have to go around two turns at a distance of 1 1/16 miles. The top four finishers will earn qualifying points (10-4-2-1).

Here is a full-field analysis for the Holy Bull with the morning line odds from Gulfstream Park. The Holy Bull is carded as race 11 out of 12 with post time scheduled for 5:10 p.m. EST. 

1. Galt (15-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado– 3: 1-0-0 - $31,800) After debuting at Saratoga on the main track, Galt was switched to the turf at Belmont Park and both resulted in sixth-place finishes. He broke his maiden by three lengths at Gulfstream on Dec. 26 with a ground-saving trip racing around two turns. He has continued to train for Bill Mott at his Florida base at Payson Park. Toss.

2. Mo Donegal (5-2 – Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz, Jr.– 3: 2-0-1 - $197,800) Todd Pletcher sent Mo Donegal to Florida to prepare for the Holy Bull after winning the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct earning 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points after coming out on top in that tight stretch duel with Zandon. In the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 2, Mo Donegal got a lot of attention closing at odds of 23-1. Pletcher has been dominating the Gulfstream championship meeting. Top choice.

3.  Eloquist (20-1 – Nyquist – Robert Reid, Jr. / Frank Pennington – 5: 1-0-0 - $36,490) Eloquist needed three tries to break his maiden at Parx and then tried the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct where he broke last, raced wide, and finished a distant fifth. In his first start of this year, he was sixth in an allowance at Gulfstream. Toss.

4.  Simplification (4-1 – Not This Time – Antonio Sano / Javier Castellano – 4: 2-0-1 - $125,270) This Florida-bred broke his maiden at his Gulfstream base by 16 lengths against state-breds in October. Simplification was then third in an allowance as the odds-on favorite. Veteran trainer Antonio Sano kept moving forward with the son of Not This Time when he stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Mucho Macho Man which he won on the lead by four lengths. Racing out of his stall will certainly help as he makes his first start going two turns on the Derby trail. It looks like Simplification has a distinct advantage as the main early speed in the field. Win contender.

5. Cajun’s Magic (8-1 – Cajun Breeze – Michael Yates / Jesus Rios – 5: 2-3-0 - $232,900) This Florida-bred has never finished worse than second in his five career starts. The last four were at Gulfstream in restricted races which include a state-bred maiden win and then three starts in Florida Stallion stakes where Cajun’s Magic had a win going six furlongs. His races increased in distance to seven furlongs and then a route around two turns. Toss.

6. Tiz the Bomb (6-1 – Hit It a Bomb – Kenny Mc Peek / Brian Hernandez, Jr. – 5: 3-1-0 - $617,841) Tiz the Bomb will make his 2022 debut as he returns to racing on the dirt after running on the turf in three stake. He was fabulous on the grass with a pair of wins in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile and then the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland. Tiz the Bomb further impressed when he was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). He began his career on the dirt for Kenny McPeek when he made an early debut in May under the Twin Spires. In July, he broke his maiden by 14 lengths on a sloppy track in a race that was meant for the turf at Ellis Park. Tiz the Bomb was a surprising second choice amongst the individual betting interests in KDFW pool 2 at odds of 10-1. Hard to know what to expect against this field of Derby contenders and those KDFW odds mean that he may be an underlay in this race. Wild card.

7.  Spin Wheel (20-1 – Hard Spun – Rusty Arnold / Julien Leparoux – 3: 1-0-0 - $74,660) This son of Hard Spun broke his maiden in his third try. He debuted on the turf at Saratoga and then was fourth at Keeneland in a race that meant for the grass but he was run on a fast track. His maiden-breaker came at Churchill in November where he rallied from last using a rail trip to get the win by a nose. Clearly, he can handle the distance of the Holy Bull but the move up to stakes company is a big concern. Toss.

8. White Abarrio (6-1 – Race Day – Saffie Joseph, Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 2-0-1 - $92,050) White Abarrio was an impressive winner of his first two starts at Gulfstream last year with combined margins of almost 11 lengths. His maiden victory was followed by a front-end allowance win going the one-turn mile. In the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill he broke alertly, dropped back a bit, and rallied to get third. He picked up 2 Kentucky Derby qualifying points from that show finish. White Abarrio was part of KDFW pool 2 and was basically ignored by the bettors, closing at 99-1. Racing at his home base will certainly help but he will have to prove that he can handle two-turns. Use underneath.

9. Giant Game (7-2 – Giant’s Causeway – Dale Romans / Luis Saez – 3: 1-0-2 - $242,400) Giant Game will make his first start of 2022 after racing three times last year in a campaign that lasted only 48 days. He was third in his debut at Churchill Downs in September and came right back to get his first victory at Keeneland by three lengths after he stretched out to race around two turns. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), he ran a noteworthy third which earned him 4 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. He has been training at Gulfstream for Dale Romans turning in three bullet workouts in January. Giant Game was included in the recent KDFW pool 2 where he closed at odds of 28-1. He gets a noteworthy rider change to Luis Saez. Use underneath.

Summary: With the way trainer Todd Pletcher has dominated the championship meeting at Gulfstream, Mo Donegal is likely to be a heavy favorite as the horse to beat in the Holy Bull. He is proven around two turns having already won at nine furlongs in the Remsen.

Simplification, who did all of his racing at Gulfstream and won the Mucho Macho Man by four-lengths, has an opportunity to get loose on the lead once again without any other true frontrunners in the field. That makes him a threat to win.

Tiz the Bomb is the wild card in the field as Kenny Mc Peek moves him back to the dirt to see if he belongs on the Kentucky Derby trail. If he can transfer the grass form that lead to a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf to the main track then he will be a win contender also.