Holy Bull Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis
Tiz the Law lost for the fist time last November, but the buzz surrounding this colt has remained heading into Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The 1 1/16-mile race is for 3-year-old horses on dirt and kicks off the local series of points-paying 2020 Kentucky Derby preps.
Tiz the Law owns a world of talent, though, and only needs to iron out his mechanics to win against this bunch. Expected second choice Caracaro did not enter, making this a great opportunity for Tiz the Law to pick up his second graded stakes victory in four starts.
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The Holy Bull is carded as Race 11 with post time set for 5:04 p.m. ET. Here's a look at the field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:
1. Toledo, 9/2 (Into Mischief – Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 1-2-0): While Toledo did break his maiden at Aqueduct by 3 ¾ lengths, he disappointed in his next start when failing to mow down Ete Indien in a local Dec. 20 Gulfstream optional claimer. Ete Indien accomplished most of the hard work and began to drift out late, yet a hard-ridden Toledo could not get it done. With that race etched in memory, Toledo looks like a horse to use, but not in the win spot. Use underneath.
2. Uncork the Bottle, 30-1 (Colonel John – Saffie Joseph Jr./Edgard Zayas – 3: 3-0-0): In most instances, a horse coming off two starter optional claiming wins is an automatic toss out in a graded stakes race. But with a red-hot trainer behind this colt, throwing him out of the superfecta is tough. For what it is worth, the Tampa Bay race did come over a one-mile route, albeit on turf. Until he proves himself on this level, Uncork the Bottle is out with some reservations. Toss.
3. Tiz the Law, 4/5 (Constitution – Barclay Tagg/Manuel Franco) – 3: 2-0-1): Last summer at Saratoga, Tiz the Law flashed his ability early with a 4 ¼-length victory in his career debut. While he only defeated a field restricted to New York-breds, his speed figures on all scales came back high, and he backed up those numbers by capturing the Champagne Stakes (G1) by four lengths over previously unbeaten Green Light Go. But there were some flaws, such as his inability to break well or relax behind horses. Those mistakes led to a third-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). If Tiz the Law can return in a more professional manner, he will win. With that said, his value is questionable as an imperfect favorite attempting two turns again. The pick.
4. Ete Indien, 7/2 (Summer Front – Patrick Biancone/Luca Panici) – 3: 2-0-0): As stated above, Ete Indien endured the pace and held off Toledo in the previous allowance meeting. He also ran on his wrong lead in the stretch and drifted out late. Tose are red flags when stepping up against a talented runner such as Tiz the Law. He stretches out from one mile to 1 1/16 miles, too, and his bottom side pedigree favors sprinting. Notice the dam is a half-sister to six-figure earners Piquant and Flavor, both of whom stuck to sprint distances in their careers. The fast pace is a concern. Use underneath.
5. Clear Destination, 30-1 (Seek Again – Ashlee Brnjas/Paco Lopez – 9: 2-3-0): Given his two wins came at Woodbine while sprinting on turf and synthetic, it is impossible to endorse him. At least he will provide a pace challenge for Ete Indien and soften him up for a stalker or closer. The unknown trainer does not help. Toss.
6. Relentless Dancer, 12-1 (Midshipman – Michael Maker/Jose Ortiz – 3: 2-0-0): With two wins at sprint distances as well, it is difficult to endorse Relentless Dancer on top, either. But it is notable he dead-heated with Silver State in a Sept. 27 Churchill Downs maiden race. In fairness, the sprint distance was too short for Silver State. Relentless Dancer’s lack of route experience hurts, and the pedigree does not provide strong clues. Expect him to contest the lead. Whether he lasts or not is unknown, but he is usable in the second or third slots. Use underneath.
7. Mayberry Deputy, 10-1 (Majesticperfection – Ken McPeek/Julien Leparoux – 3: 1-1-0): While this Majesticperfection colt did break his maiden locally over one mile, he only earned a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Two starts back, he finished seven lengths behind the eventual Smarty Jones Stakes winner Gold Street with a 90 at Churchill Downs. Some bettors may find him useful underneath. But on speed figures, he is too slow in this spot. Toss.
Conclusion: Now is the time for Tiz the Law. He could sit behind more than one speed horse with Ete Indien, Clear Destination, Relentless Dancer and possibly Mayberry Deputy setting up the pace and giving the favorite a perfect striking position.
Unfortunately, the price is low without Caracaro entered as expected.
If playing a straight exacta, Tiz the Law over Relentless Dancer might pay. Replace Relentless Dancer with Toledo or Ete Indien if the value is too low.
Plays: 3/6, 3/1 or 3/4.