Hollywood Derby 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Few hot horses retain fair value when aiming for a third win in a row. But when Mr Dumas goes Saturday in the Grade 1, $300,000 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar, his price should remain playable given the presence of some shippers from the Chad Brown barn. Brown shows up with both Digital Age and Standard Deviation, two horses guaranteed to take some money

Mr. Dumas recently won a Grade 3 event at Churchill Downs and shows a consistent record overall, but his trainer, John Ortiz, is not a known figure to casual bettors. He could at nice odds.

The Hollywood Derby is carded as Race 8 with post time set for 6:30 p.m. ET.

1. Mo Forza, 10-1 (Uncle Mo – Peter Miller/Paco Lopez – 7: 2-3-1): His win in the Twilight Derby (G2) was almost too good, as he pressed the speed Kingly early on, put him away and held off the stretch runners, including Succeedandsurpass, Neptune's Storm and Henley's Joy. The turf course did tilt toward favoring speed on Breeders' Cup Saturday. Now he draws the inside post, and it could become harder to settle. Toss.

2. Kingly, 20-1 (Tapit – Bob Baffert/Mario Gutierrez – 11: 3-2-2): Longer distances are not supposed to stop this full brother to Mohaymen and 2-year-old winner Enforceable. But with his front-running style, he is liable to come up short just as in the nine-furlong Twilight Derby. Expect Mo Forza to stay close to Kingly early. From there, he will put up a a bit of a fight and give in late. Toss. 

3. Uncle Bull, 20-1 (Uncle Mo – Mark Casse/Joe Talamo – 5: 3-0-0): With his last three races at Woodbine, it is difficult to judge this horse. He did win two of those starts in that span, with one of the wins coming in a turf route and the other on synthetic. But this is still a wild card until he could prove his form against a higher level of competition. Notice the runner-up in the Nov. 10 win, Malibu Uproar, previously lost a claiming race. Toss. 

4. Digital Age, 7/2 (Invincible Spirit – Chad Brown/Javier Castellano – 7: 3-1-0): At 1 1/16 miles or less, this Chad Brown-trained colt packs an explosive late punch. At nine furlongs or farther, though, he has not been as impressive. Granted, he experienced a troubled trip in the nine-furlong Hill Prince Stakes (G2) by taking up more than once around the first turn. Bettors are not likely to leave him alone though due to the Brown factor. Use underneath.

5. Neptune's Storm, 12-1 (Stormy Atlantic – Richard Baltas/Abel Cedillio – 13: 5-2-4): This hard-trying gelding shipped east to win the Hill Prince before running a somewhat flat race in the Twilight Derby, finishing third to Mo Forza. The card's turf speed bias is a weak excuse, too, because Neptune's Storm ran relatively close to the leaders in third early. Regardless, his best run can hit the board, and that makes him useful here. Use underneath

6. Nolde, 8-1 (Pioneerof the Nile – John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza – 9: 3-2-1): His off-the-board finish in the Twilight Derby is a mystery after winning the Del Mar Derby (G2) and finishing a game second in the Oceanside Stakes. Most horses deserve a break from handicappers if they show one oddball clunker in their form. Therefore, he gets another chance to show his real late punch. Win contender.

7. Proud Pedro, 20-1 (Pedro the Great – Leonard Powell/Tiago Pereira – 6: 1-2-2): He ran a close second in the Let It Ride Stakes against a short field. But Nolde proved at least a length better in a June 21 optional claiming race at Santa Anita. It is possible Proud Pedro matured and improved since then, but he is a board hitter for now. Use underneath.

8. Henley's Joy, 10-1 (Kitten's Joy – Michael Maker/Drayden Van Dyke – 15: 4-3-0): Ever since winning the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) in July, he has been running so-so races. For example, he finished fifth in the Saratoga Derby and Jockey Club Derby before running fourth in the Hill Prince and Twilight Derby. As mentioned previously, a speed bias affected him in the latter race. Regardless, he is better as an option to fill out exotics. Use underneath.

9. Standard Deviation, 5-1 (Curlin – Chad Brown/TBA – 9: 3-1-3): Because Brown trains him, expect the odds to fall slightly lower than fair value. Still, as a son of Curlin out of an A.P. Indy mare, he should appreciate the distance better than his stablemate Digital Age. Plus, he draws a cozy outside post where he can settle a few lengths off Kingly in the clear. There are some factors to like about him. Win contender.

10. Moody Jim, 20-1 (Moohaajim – Jeff Mullins/Flavien Prat – 5: 2-0-1): He ran a decent race in winning an Oct. 12 optional claimer at Santa Anita. But what happened in the Del Mar Derby? He ranged up on the outside and offered nothing late. It is difficult to toss any turf horse that Prat rides, but he needs to show his good form at this level. Toss.

11. Mr Dumas, 6-1 (Majesticperfection – John Ortiz/TBA – 6: 3-0-3): This one won the Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3) at 9-1 after a beautiful stalking trip off the speed horses from an outside post. In this spot, he projects for almost the same trip, with the option to either press Kingly or lay a few lengths off him. The distance is not an issue, as his Commonwealth win came at nine furlongs. He is a rising player.  The pick.

12. Originaire, 30-1 (Zoffany – Jeff Mullins/TBA – 12: 2-2-4): This late-closing plodder did not make a dent in the Twilight Derby, only picking up seventh late. The speed bias possibly affected him. With some pace and luck, he might complete the superfecta late. But it is unreasonable and too expensive to choose every horse underneath. Toss.

13. Succeedandsurpass, 12-1 (Exceed and Excel – Richard Baltas/Rafael Bejarano – 5: 1-3-0): He did run well to finish second in the Twilight Derby. This is a tough post position, though, as he does not own the same tactical speed as Mr Dumas. If he can negotiate the trip from this post, he might find his way into the exotics. Use underneath.

Conclusion: Mr Dumas, who I selected last time at Churchill Downs gets the nod again. This is not a case of bettors' bias. Rather, he is a sharp horse whose odds will stay fair.

If Bs or Cs must be used, then Nolde and Standard Deviation are the best options.

Proud Pedro, Henley's Joy and Succeedandsurpass are interesting underneath, as all three figure to offer value. It is better to study the live tote board before deciding.