Fair odds: Outside speed is value proposition at Turfway

The synthetic championships on Saturday at Turfway Park features an all-stakes Pick 4 involving the stakes quartet, and the most competitive of the four races is the Holiday Inaugural for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the Tapeta surface.

My fair odds have a third of the field at 8-to-1 or less with only one true outsider at 100-1. Each of my top four contenders has her own merits, but I am most excited about Love Appeals. She is is making her synthetic debut, so that is a wildcard, but this is an in-form filly who has tactical speed to be in the mix early before kicking on similar to her stakes win last out.

Love Appeals is my second choice on fair odds, but my most likely winner, Love to Shop, has connections who I think will attract money plus graded-stakes form on synthetic. I think Love Appeals will be a better bet, and she figures to get a better trip.

It is nice to see Nice As Pie back at Turfway, where she was perfect in four starts last winter-spring. As she has progressed in the class ranks she has adopted a more closing style, and I do not think that is her best chance here. I am intrigued by Luis Saez taking the mount for trainer Kelsey Danner.

Rolling doubles will give us an opportunity to see how this race is going to get bet when the all-stakes pick 4 begins with the preceding race. My expectation is that Nice As Pie and Love Appeals will be the horses I most want on my tickets.