Holiday Cheer fair odds: My Buddy B is the bettor's friend
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With $36,490.75 already in the pool and a mandatory payout, the Pick 6 on Saturday, Dec. 30, at Turfway Park could balloon to a total pool of $150,000. The challenging sequence begins at 7:25 p.m. EST with the fourth race. All six races in the sequence drew at least 10 entries, including four full fields of 12, three of which are overdrawn.
The feature of the sextet is the $125,000
Holiday Cheer Stakes for older sprinters going six furlongs on the
Tapeta synthetic surface.
Using the Horse Racing Nation Track Trends Tool, we can see that this configuration has played fairly so far this meeting.
There is speed on the inside and outside at the start of this race with no. 11 Olazabal a complete wildcard given his tailed-off form on dirt, but he does have two local wins and has placed in a stakes here.
Still, I have a tough time seeing him sticking around against this group. I'm hoping my top pick, no. 5 My Buddy B, gets a tucked in trip and first run on the rest of the field.
Trainer Paulo Lobo, who on Friday upset the second leg of the penultimate Pick 6, had enough confidence in this one to try a Grade 3 at Woodbine,. While that did not work out, the allowance victories at Mountaineer and a win at Turfway earlier in his career give me enough confidence at the 15-1 morning line.
No. 9 Fortin Hill is the most likely winner and comes from the same Lobo barn as our top selection. The 7-2 morning line actually provides value, but I cannot imagine he starts at that price.
For Pick 6 purposes, I'm comfortable leaning on just the Lobo entries. For betting this race specifically, my own post-time odds projections have My Buddy B the better win bet value, but a Dolly Parton exacta (9-5) will also be in the playbook.
Coverage of the Turfway Park winter meet at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.
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