Fair odds: Big scratch means big value in Holiday Cheer

The Holiday Cheer Stakes anchors the all-stakes Pick 4 on synthetic championships night Saturday at Turfway Park, and there is a great opportunity to beat the favorite to close out the sequence.

Patches O'Houlihan is expected to scratch from the six-furlong dash, which leaves the race much more competitive without the five-time graded-stakes winner.

Howard Wolowitz is the 5-2 morning line favorite, which makes sense given his Grade 1 win in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes. Granted, that was on turf. But bettors will notice his class, and he did break his maiden with a flash score on Gulfstream's Tapeta surface. All that said, I still see this one as being too short a price against a competitive field.

I am most intrigued by Senbei, a beaten favorite last out in a turf-sprint stakes. I'm not sure how the class compares between those New York turf sprints and the synthetic championships, but part of my intrigue here is I think with the surface switch Senbei can be a little closer to the pace.

Mo Stash has never tried synthetic, and the surface switch intrigues me for the son of Mo Town especially considering trainer Vicki Oliver is 17% with that move with a huge return on investment. 

Run Carson also will try synthetic for the first time. Trainer Kelsey Danner is not as adept at that move as Oliver, but 13% is fine and Luan Machado taking the mount is a positive.

I would love to be live to Senbei, Mo Stash and Run Carson to close out this all-stakes Pick 4.