History says this week’s preps will not produce Derby winners

It used to be that December races for eventual Kentucky Derby winners were practically unheard of. Between 2001 and 2018, only Giacomo and California Chrome had past performances in the last month of their 2-year-old seasons before they wore roses at age 3.

Then came the last four years, when December runners went on to finish first in the Derby a few times. Even though Maximum Security and Medina Spirit would be disqualified, Country House and Rich Strike remained the big-priced exceptions to resting through the holidays.

Still, this week’s points preps at Los Alamitos and Remington Park have yet to produce Derby winners. At least not in their current incarnations.

The Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) has had only eight years of history since it was moved after the closing of Hollywood Park. Dortmund and Firing Line, who made up the exacta of that first running in 2014, would finish the other way around in second and third, right behind American Pharoah the following year in the Derby. That was as close as the latter-day version of the race came to producing a May winner in Kentucky.

The higher the number in Quirin Speed Points, the more likely a horse is to move forward early. The E for early is equivalent to mid-race speed, the P for presser is for mid-pack horses, and the S for sustaining is for closers.  

At its old home, the race that was established as the Hollywood Futurity graduated six horses who would win the Derby. It has been 18 years since Giacomo, who won at 50-1 odds in Louisville, did it most recently. Real Quiet was the only horse to pull off the Hollywood Futurity-Kentucky Derby double, the first of trainer Bob Baffert’s 13 winners in the combined history of the Southern California races.

Until Doug O’Neill won with Slow Down Andy last year, Baffert had won every Los Alamitos running of the futurity. One thing all eight victors have had in common was their being close to the pace, a trait certainly typical of Baffert horses. None ever was more than 2 3/4 lengths off the lead at any call, according to charts archived by Equibase.

That same history, though, revealed no gate-to-wire leaders among the winners. Mastery came closest six years ago, when he never was more than a head off the early lead. Conversely, the nearest thing to a winning closer was Mor Spirit, who was as far back as sixth before he scored in 2015.

Fort Bragg, Arabian Lion and Carmel Road, the three Baffert colts who were listed by the Los Al racing office as possible to start Saturday, have been forward early in their best races.

Where being near the early lead has been the way to win the Los Alamitos Futurity, the opposite historically has held true with the Springboard Mile. The two-turn race has been held every fall since 2001, when it began as the Remington Mile.

Twelve of the 21 winners came from at least four lengths off the lead. But like the December-to-May pattern, exceptions have crept in through recent years with four of the last six victors being close or on the lead.

Giant Mischief, Practical Move, Prove Right and Giroovin, all probable for Saturday, have looked like closers. Release McCraken was on or near the early lead on the way to winning his last two races.

Anyone looking for Derby horses to come out of Oklahoma has been left wanting. Only six starters have emerged from the Remington Mile or Springboard Mile to start in America’s biggest race.

The best May finish came from Suddenbreakingnews, who was second in Oklahoma and fifth in Kentucky.

The Springboard Mile’s 0-for-21 drought in producing Derby winners is the fourth longest of any current points prep. Only the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs with 42, the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs with 41 and the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan with 22 have gone longer.