Big jackpot grows at Parx for mandatory Pick 5 payout
Any thought of taking a “year-end break” to “recharge the batteries” was shot out of a cannon after nobody picked 5 on Christmas Eve at Tampa Bay Downs, and Parx Racing announced a mandatory payout of its Philly Big 5 for the final day of its 2021 season.
In total, Wednesday is a Pick 5 players’ delight with more than $400,000 in added money up for grabs at the two tracks nearly connected by Interstate 95. With apologies to legendary sportswriter Red Smith, to get to Tampa Bay Downs from Parx, go south 1,000 miles on I-95 and turn right at the defunct dog track in Jacksonville.
Anyway, the only drive I’ll be making on Wednesday is to the office, which gives me plenty of opportunity to play these fantastic sequences, and first things first: Get to Horse Racing Nation’s picks page for essential handicapping information for all tracks running Wednesday (and beyond).
I’m not a big fan of doing a lot of heavy lifting on cards without knowing track condition and scratches, but with a historic amount of combinations to this Pick 5 before scratches and a zest for some carryover eve clout, I figured there are some nuggets to mine.
And we hit pay dirt in leg 1 with No. 1 Double the Heart, an Alternation colt who is somehow making his dirt debut in the waning days of his fifth year after 16 lifetime starts, and if the track is wet then he has the potential to move up even more.
Another feather in Double the Heart’s cap is the inside post position, which seems to be advantageous going seven furlongs at Parx, especially in bigger field sizes (this one is 14 before scratches). Outside posts aren’t bad either, as posts 10-12 won three of six sprints this week at Parx.
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As for a strategy, it’s too early to tell other than I think most players will be taking a caveman approach (as usual), so some principled stands throughout the sequence could be the difference between getting to that 30-to-1 eighth choice and trying to survive with a bunch of first through fifth choices.
To paraphrase professional handicapper @insidethepylons, you’re better off going 1x2x4x4x8 than 3x3x3x3x3.
UPDATE: Scratches are in, and we still have 144,144 combinations. Sucks that we lost more than 60 percent of the combos, but that's still a stout amount of permutations given that it's more than if there 5 10-horse fields.
Anyway, that's a long way of saying this should be a great opportunity given the added money and just a 15% takeout on new money.
Between the scratches and my dubiousness of the Parx morning line in general, it's tough to know where my separating opinion is.
In leg 1, No. 13 is the 2-to-1 morning line favorite, which could mean 1 and 16 are good leans, but what to do if they all open up at 3-to-1?
In leg 2, No. 6 is the 2-1 morning-line favorite, but I expect she and No. 12 Piquet to be much closer than the latter's 6-1 ML would suggest.
In leg 3, the first and fourth choices in a field of 12 scratched, leaving Nos. 8 and 10 as the obvious.
In leg 4, No. 8 Script is the 3-1 morning line favorite. Given he's a lone "B" against a pair of 6-1 As this is definitely a spot I'm targeting to use just the 6 and 7.
In leg 5, the morning line favorite in a field of 13 scratched. I liked No. 1 before the scratch, and while he's still the co third choice, 6-1 is a pipe dream now. Still, I think most people will spread following the scratch so a single here on a horse who will only be co favored at best makes sense.
Thus, 6, 7 with 1 to close things out is definitely my strategy. All the As and Bs leading to that late double is $252.
Good luck.