Hirsch fair odds: A shipper has the value against Adare Manor

Winning streaks are on the line in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes on Saturday at Del Mar.

Adare Manor will be heavily favored to win her third race in a row while stymieing the three-race win streaks of Scylla and Sugar Fish, and champion Pretty Mischievious hopes to snap her three-race losing streak.

Adare Manor certainly is the most likely winner, but she has a chance to be odds-on for the third time in as many starts. I have a hard time finding that she wins this race more than half the time, so she's an underlay.

Scylla is unquestionably the choice for me. I see no way she is not at least my fair odds given the presence of Adare Manor and Pretty Mischievous. Her Ragozin numbers are as consistent as the favorite's and much faster than Pretty Mischievous's. I'm a little concerned that the favorite gets away from her here, but I think the discrepancy in price compensates for that.

Pretty Mischievous is impossible to use, even at the inflated 8-1 morning line price. She just has not remotely come close to her best races of last year. Maybe the change of venue wakes her up, so to speak, but I need to see a rounding back into form before I use her at all.

Scylla to win and a straight exacta beneath Adare Manor.