Head to Head: Who of Baffert’s 4 is choice in Del Mar Futurity?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Brigante (15-1)

In his debut Brigante looked good, finishing a clear second over the lawn. He had good leg extension and a smooth gate. That wasn’t the case in his second start when he switched to dirt for the six-furlong Best Pal (G3). Brigante was pushed the entire way, and his stride through the stretch was choppy. The Doug O’Neill trainee’s late-pace figures are in the 70s, the lowest in the Futurity. Although some of Brigante’s half-siblings hit the board on dirt, only 1 of 5 won on the surface, and the rest were happier on turf and all-weather. More than Ready’s son is out of A.P. Indy mare Cheeky Charm. Although he is the only black-type earner in his immediate family, the roll call of winners from his second generation is impressive. His second dam Caress is a multiple graded winner at 1 1/8 miles. Other notables include Grade 1 winners and sires Sky Mesa and Maxfield. I predict Brigante will be a decent turf horse when he gets older. Pass.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Brigante is still a maiden after two starts and a turf debut. He tracked the pace in second but was turned away in the stretch, finishing second by 1 1/2 lengths. It was a productive race in that the winner Hey Nay Nay won the Tyro Stakes next out, and two others also were next-out winners. Brigante then tried dirt in his next start, finishing a distant third to Desert Gate in the Best Pal (G3). Brigante actually earned a higher Brisnet Speed Rating on the turf, pulling in an 81 vs. the 77 he received for the Best Pal. O’Neill is 7% in wins with a 32% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years, numbers that dip to 3% and 20% when constrained to 2-year-old graded stakes. Héctor Berrios has the return call. Pass.

2. Brant (1-1)   

The hyped $3 million Ocala Breeders’ Sales 2-year-old Brant had his debut set up perfectly for victory. He tracked dueling Civil Liberty and Balboa through a sizzling 21.56-second opening quarter and a 44.78 half-mile. The pair was exhausted and offered no resistance as Brant swept by. He completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:02.63 with a final 6.17-second half-furlong. Baffert gave the pretty gray colt a pre-race, six-furlong solo breeze timed at 1:11.4, good enough to win many races. Gun Runner’s son is out of winning Liam’s Map mare Tynan. The mare’s full brother is the precocious sprinter Pappacap, who captured the 2021 Best Pal (G1) and placed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and two other Grade 1 events. Tynan’s half-brother Boppy O won the 2022 With Anticipation (G3) and placed in five other stakes as a turf miler. Brant’s leg action isn’t pretty. He has a high-knee gait, turfy action, and wings or paddles with his left foreleg. Brant had the benefit of passing tired horses without being challenged, so we’ll see what he does for an encore. Contender.

Trained by Baffert, highly touted Brant did exactly what he was supposed to do in his debut, a 5 1/2-furlong affair at Del Mar. With Flavien Prat up, Brant sat right behind a hot pace set by Civil Liberty and Balboa and then ranged up to their outside at the top of the stretch. He easily put them away and cruised off to a 5 1/4-length victory, stopping the clock at 1:02.63, just 0.77 seconds off the track record. Brant received a field-best 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. Third-place finisher Balboa and fourth-place Intrepido were open-lengths, next-out winners. Prat has the return call. Contender.

3. Balboa (6-1)

After getting into a speed duel in his debut and fading to third, Balboa returned to knock out a group of maidens at 6 1/2 furlongs by 7 3/4 lengths after setting more relaxed fractions. Baffert’s charge completed the distance in 1:17.48 with a 6.74-second sixteenth. He had a decent 10-point jump in his speed ratings, and his 86 late-pace figure fits with the field. Not This Time’s son is out of winning War Front mare Tap of War. The mare is half to Grade 1-winning turf miler Halladay, and the second dam Hightap is a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1/16 miles. Balboa had a pre-race, five-furlong spin in 1:10.2 outside of Saturday’s Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Bottle of Rouge. The pair moved as a team in a maintenance work, although Balboa is a larger horse with a longer stride. The filly was pushed slightly to keep up with him through the gallop out. Exotics.

Trained by Baffert, Balboa was third on debut, finishing 8 3/4 lengths behind stablemate Brant in that maiden race that was less than a second off the track record. He returned in his second start to easily win a 6 1/2-furlong event by 7 3/4 lengths. His Brisnet Speed Rating increased from an 81 to a 91. It was a nice improvement, but there are several in the field with better numbers. Kazushi Kimura takes over from Juan Hernández, who will be aboard Desert Gate. Exotics.

4. Civil Liberty (9-2)

Cleverly named Civil Liberty was part of the drag-race duo who raced against Brant. However, Civil Liberty outlasted Balboa by 3 1/2 lengths for second place. He was a tired boy, recording an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating, second lowest in the Futurity field. Independence Hall’s son is out of Tiznow mare Love and Respect. She’s a half to the multiple graded sprinter Miss Behaviour. Second dam Successful Romance was a stakes-placed sprinter. Doug O’Neill gave Civil Liberty a four-furlong gate work that went in 46.6 seconds inside a colt by Accelerate out of Urbane Legend. Civil Liberty was bumped out of his lane by the very green, unnamed workmate but kept to his task and soon outdistanced his rival with speed to spare. Exotics.

The second of the O’Neill duo, Civil Liberty also is still a maiden. He was part of that hot pace in his debut against Brant and Balboa. While Brant swallowed up Civil Liberty and Balboa in the stretch, it was Civil Liberty who prevailed in their private duel on the lead. While Civil Liberty finished 5 1/4 lengths behind Brant, he was 3 1/2 lengths clear of third-place finisher Balboa. Civil Liberty received an 87 Brisnet Speed Rating for his effort. Antonio Fresu has the return call. Exotics.

5. Desert Gate (4-1)

Desert Gate dominated the Best Pal (G3) by 8 3/4 lengths, trouncing Brigante in the process. He completed six furlongs in 1:10.37 with a 12.59 final eighth of a mile. That finishing time was impressive since he wasn’t asked, and his 88 late-pace rating is the second highest in the Futurity. Omaha Beach’s son is out of multiple stakes-winning Curlin mare Theogony, who won going up to 1 1/2 miles. Desert Gate’s second dam is multiple Grade 3-placed Upcoming Story. Desert Gate had a pre-race, bullet, six-furlong move outside Litmus Test. Desert Gate settled off his stablemate’s flank in the early stages and then little separated them through the stretch, although Litmus Test was urged past the wire to stay even. Contender.

Also from the Baffert barn, Desert Gate is undefeated in two career starts. He beat three rivals in his debut, a five-furlong event at Santa Anita. Only third-place finisher Proletariat made a subsequent start, and he won at second asking when switching to the turf. Desert Gate then took the Best Pal (G3) by 8 3/4 lengths in his second start. Runner-up Pavlovian was a non-threatening seventh next out in the I’m Smokin Stakes for California-breds. The Omaha Beach colt earned a 95 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut and a 94 for the Best Pal (G3). Regular rider Hernández has the call. Contender.

6. Litmus Test (6-1)

Litmus Test was professional in his debut, settling behind horses before taking aim on and passing the pacesetter and keeping a straight path. However, he wings or paddles with his left foreleg. The Baffert charge completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.64 with a final sixteenth in 6.33 seconds. His 86 late-pace figure equals Balboa’s. By 2015 Del Mar Futurity hero Nyquist, Litmus Test is out of Malibu Moon mare Study Hard. The mare is a full sister to multiple graded-stakes-winning sprinter Sweet August Moon. His third dam Silent Turn was a multiple stakes winner at distances of up to 1 1/16 miles and was Grade 1 placed at 1 1/8 miles. Litmus Test had a final breeze with Desert Gate and was pushed late to keep up. Exotics.

The fourth colt from the Baffert barn, Litmus Test was a debut winner Aug. 16. He tracked a quick early pace before making a three-wide bid coming off the turn. He seized command while being chased by stablemate Falcon Jet and held steady to win by three-quarters length. It wasn’t the flashy type of victory we saw from his three stablemates in this field, but it was professional and strong enough to receive a 90 Brisnet Speed Rating. Baffert has a 28% win rate and is 65% in the money when runners race off a 21- to 30-day turnaround. Tyler Gaffalione, who hasn’t ridden for Baffert in the last year, takes over from Hernández. Exotics.