Head to Head: Who has the edge in the Kentucky Jockey Club?

Laurie

Ashlen

1. Spice Runner (12-1)

I liked Spice Runner to hit the board in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), but the Steve Asmussen trainee faceplanted at the start and had to steady. Then he had to steady hard again while in last place as a horse came over on him, causing Spice Runner to fall farther behind. So toss that effort. Previously, Spice Runner closed to win the one-mile Iroquois (G3) by a head. Spice Runner’s full brother Gunite is a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and was second in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Their dam, Simple Surprise, is a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Spice Runner’s Brisnet ratings aren’t spectacular, but he’s the most experienced and has tactical speed. Live long shot.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Spice Runner had a nightmare trip last out in the Breeders’ Futurity. The speedster kissed the dirt exiting the gate and then was steadied in the first turn, leaving him at the rear of the field. That was where he stayed, finishing fifth of six, 12 3/4 lengths behind winner Ted Noffey. The colt already has two wins over the Churchill oval, including in the Iroquois two starts back. Spice Runner’s speed figures have so far peaked at 89, and full brother Gunite never won at a mile, let alone beyond. Joel Rosario has the call. Pass.

2. Cherokee Nation (3-1)

Still a maiden, Cherokee Nation just missed having his picture taken by a nose in his last start. Who beat him? Mr. A. P., who returned to finish second, a length behind Ted Noffey. Trained by Bob Baffert, Cherokee Nation was aggressive from the start and fought the entire length of the stretch but never put a head in front of his rival. Cherokee Nation was on the inside and gave up valuable experience to his rival. Not This Time’s son is the third competitor out of Believe in Charlie (Indian Charlie), a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Race Lens shows that her foals are 0-for-12, although three have placed. Believe in Charlie is half to multiple stakes winning turf router Shamrocket. Cherokee Nation is still learning. He’s a big, one-paced colt who is often pushed to stay with his workmates in the morning while his ears stay half-cocked and twitching. Cherokee Nation is shipping and facing more accomplished runners. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Cherokee Nation was fourth on debut at Del Mar after bumping at the start and being steadied early. Only one from that field has become a winner, and that came after a switch to turf. In the colt’s second start, he dueled throughout the entirety of the race and could not hold off Mr. A. P., who was all out, and lost by a nose. Mr. A. P. lit up the tote board next out, getting up for second at 21-1 odds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Cherokee Nation received a 99 Brisnet Speed Rating in his second start, the highest number in the field. Flavien Prat takes over from J.J. Hernandez. Contender.

3. Dr. Kapur (8-1)

On the engine the entire race in a maiden special event at Keeneland, Dr. Kapur put away his rivals and opened up by 2 3/4 lengths. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:23.71, with a 13.39 final furlong. The effort was good enough to earn a 94 Brisnet rating and 92 late-pace figure. By the second-leading second-crop sire McKinzie, Dr. Kapur is the third foal out of the stakes-winning turf miler Ava’s Kitten (Kitten’s Joy), a full sister to 2014 champion turf horse Real Solution. Dr. Kapur had a second-to-last four-furlong move in company with the older stakes-placed Souper Tuscan. The pair were timed in a sharp 47.60. Dr. Kapur was very competitive, keeping a neck in front the entire way, his ears pinned flat. The colt is professional, but can he rate or sustain his speed going two turns? I predict speed and fade. Pass.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Dr. Kapur was second by a neck in his debut to Big Dom, who was subsequently sixth next out in the Breeders’ Futurity. Fourth-place finisher My World was a next-out winner who then doubled down with a victory in the Nashua Stakes. Dr. Kapur won at second asking, taking a seven-furlong event at Keeneland by 2 3/4 lengths. Two from that field were next-out winners, with another finishing third. Dr. Kapur earned a 96 speed rating in his debut and a 94 last out. Joseph has 22% wins with a 61% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. Jose Ortiz, who will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts, has the mount. Exotics.

4. Soldier N Diplomat (4-1)

Soldier N Diplomat sandwiched a 12-length loss in the Hopeful (G1) between two victories. He earned a 94 Brisnet rating while scoring by nine lengths against optional-claiming allowance runners at Churchill in his last start. The Steve Asmussen trainee completed a mile in 1:36. 70, with a sharp 12.29 final furlong while under a hand ride. His 100 late-pace figure is the field’s highest. By Army Mule, Soldier N Diplomat is out of the unraced Violence mare Diplomatic Miss. Soldier N Diplomat’s second dam is the multiple graded-winning sprinter Miraculous Miss. Soldier N Diplomat has sprinter-miler breeding and runs upright, he doesn’t lower his head when he runs. But he has tactical speed and might handle two turns. Contender.

Also from the Asmussen barn, Soldier N Diplomat enters off a nine-length triumph in a mile optional claimer under the twin spires. The Army Mule colt also won his debut but was a distant fourth in the Hopeful after setting the early pace. Two rivals from Soldier N Diplomat’s most recent race are stakes placed, one on turf and one on dirt. The 94 Brisnet Speed Rating the colt earned last out is close to the average winning speed. Tyler Gaffalione has the return call. Exotics.

5. Very Connected (15-1)

The lone closer in the field, Very Connected lingered at the back of the pack in the Street Sense (G3), then followed the winner Incredibolt down the lane in one-paced fashion while passing horses to gain third place. It was an even effort for his first start against winners. The Kenny McPeek trainee earned a career-best 88 Brisnet rating and a decent 94 late-pace figure. Connect’s son is a full brother to Hidden Connection, winner of the 2021 Pocahontas Stakes (G3). Grade 1-winning sprinter Capo Bastone is a distant relative. Very Connected had a sharp second-to-last, four-furlong move in 47.40 and could earn a check with a similar move here. Long-shot chance.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Very Connected was last seen finishing third in the Street Sense, four lengths behind winner Incredibolt. The colt was a distant fifth on debut at Colonial and third in his second start, a one-mile turf affair at Kentucky Downs. He won his third start, an off-the-turf, 1 1/16-mile maiden event at Churchill Downs. Half of that field has made subsequent starts, but none have won. Very Connected’s speed ratings have improved with each start, topping out at 88 in the Street Sense. Emmanuel Esquivel has the return call. Pass.

6. Further Ado (7-5)

In his third start and first around two turns, Further Ado grabbed the lead just before the quarter pole and opened up in a Secretariat-like move. Galloping under Keeneland’s first wire 20 lengths in front. Brad Cox’s charge stopped the clock at 1:43.52, with a 6.39 final half-furlong. The move was good enough for a 98 late-pace figure and overall Brisnet rating. Gun Runner’s son is the sixth foal out of Grade 2-placed Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa). Further Ado is half to Kimbear, a multiple graded-winning sprinter in the U.S. and Dubai. The extended family includes Grade 1-winning turf heroine Dream Dancing, and the third dam is 1999 champion older mare Beautiful Pleasure. Further Ado’s speed ratings have improved in each start. In his last start, he was very professional but didn’t beat much, so questions remain. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, it took Further Ado three attempts to break his maiden. He was fifth, 3 1/2 lengths behind Soldier N Diplomat, in his debut. He was third in his second start, with his first two starts being in sprints at Saratoga. He found his calling when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in his third start, jetting off to a 20-length victory at Keeneland. Talkin, the winner of Further Ado’s second race, was second in the Champagne (G1) next out, and three others became eventual winners. One from his most recent race, who was also in his second race, has become a winner, with a couple others hitting the board next out. Further Ado earned a smart 98 speed rating to go along with that 20-length victory, and his ratings have improved with each start. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return call. Contender.

7. Universe (9-2)

Universe comes in with a pair of graded-stakes placements under his girth. He faced winners for the first time in the Champagne. Things didn’t go as planned, and he bumped hard at the start then settled behind the pace. While his mind was figuring out the horses around him, the body was going up and down instead of forward. Universe got on track late and made up a lot of ground to grab third place. Tactics changed in the Street Sense. Ken McPeek took the blinkers off, put a shadow roll on, and Universe pressed the pace instead of the previous tactic of settling behind the lead. Down the lane, Universe got busy fighting with the rival to his inside. Once he got clear, Universe’s stride lengthened, but he was passed late by Incredibolt. By second-crop sire Global Campaign, Universe is the second foal and first winner out of the unplaced Quality Road mare, Equalityforall. Class skips to the third generation to Grade 3-winning handicap horse Called to Serve. Despite his struggles against rivals, Universe’s speed ratings improved in each start. But he received an 88 late-pace figure, while Very Connected, who got up for third-place, earned a 94. Exotics. 

Also from the McPeek barn, Universe is 3: 1-1-1 lifetime so far. He won a seven-furlong event at Saratoga in his debut. None from that race have become winners, but several hit the board in their next race. Universe then was third in the Champagne, 7 1/4 lengths behind winner Napoleon Solo, and second in the Street Sense, 1 3/4 lengths behind winner Incredibolt, who does not return for this race. Neither the Champagne winner nor the runner-up started in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Universe’s speed ratings have improved with each start culminating with a 91 in the Street Sense. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the mount. Exotics.