Head to Head: Which Baffert to pick in American Pharoah?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Desert Gate (3-2)

Desert Gate looked like a good thing in his first two starts, winning by a combined 11 lengths. But he had a nightmare trip in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He stumbled badly at the start and then had to steady, costing him a few lengths. Juan Hernandez wisely took Desert Gate to the rail, where he was able to make up ground with long strides. He tipped out around the turn and closed within one length of Brant without being aggressively ridden, and bested Civil Liberty by 3 1/4 lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee completed his final furlong in a decent 12.98 and earned a 95 Brisnet late-pace figure. Omaha Beach’s son is out of the multiple stakes-winning Curlin mare Theogony, who won at up to 1 1/2 miles. Desert Gate’s second dam is multiple Grade 3-placed Upcoming Story. Baffert gave Desert Gate a series of five- and six-furlong moves in racehorse time. He’s bred for distance and is a win contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Desert Gate won his first two career starts. He beat three rivals in his debut, a five-furlong event at Santa Anita. Only third-place finisher Proletariat has made a subsequent start, and he won at second asking when switching to the turf and was most recently third in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3). Desert Gate then won the Best Pal (G3) by 8 3/4 lengths in his second start. Second- and third-place finishers Pavlovian and Brigante finished off the board next out in the I’m Smokin Stakes for California-breds and the Del Mar Futurity, respectively. Desert Gate was most recently a troubled second in the Del Mar Futurity. The colt has earned consistent Brisnet Speed Ratings in the mid-90s, and the rail post is winning at a 27% clip. Regular jockey J.J. Hernandez has the mount. Contender.

2.  Intrepido (6-1)

Intrepido had trouble in his debut, checking in fourth behind Civil Liberty and Balboa at 5 1/2 furlongs. In his second start, Intrepido found a mile a better fit. He relaxed fearlessly on the lead, ears twitching despite being in an early speed duel. He turned back a tepid challenge from the favorite and opened up by 3 1/4 lengths over a late-closing Plutarch despite Hector Berrios losing his crop in the stretch. The Jeff Mullens trainee was comfortable and professional throughout the race with a high cruising speed. He completed a mile in 1:35.71 with a 12.53 final furlong. His 101 late-pace figure is the field’s highest. By third-leading third-crop sire Maximus Mischief, Intrepido is the fourth foal and third winner out of the Pleasantly Perfect mare Overly Indulgent, who placed twice in five starts as a sprinter. There are no black-type earners in the first two generations of the distaff line. The third dam, Fortunate Faith, won the Demoiselle (G2), and her son Z Fortune, captured the Lecomte (G3). Mullins gave Intrepido a second-to-last bullet five-furlong move outside 2-year-old maiden Whole Shebang. Intrepido set off in front but soon was joined by his mate. Intrepido was pushed to complete the work while his stablemate stuck with him and wasn’t asked. Intrepido shut down around the turn, but his mate continued out. Intrepido never passed but was credited with a bullet 58.00 while Whole Shebang was given a 59.20 time. Perhaps Intrepido is just a laid-back sort, but I wasn’t impressed with the work and question the breeze times. Exotics.

Trained by Jeff Mullins, Intrepido got the job done in his second start, winning a mile maiden race by 3 1/4 lengths. He was fourth in his debut behind Brant, who won the Del Mar Futurity next out, Civil Liberty, who was third next out in the Del Mar Futurity, and Balboa, who was a next-out winner against maidens and then fifth in the Del Mar Futurity. In his second start, he beat Plutarch, who was second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf next out, and Provenance, who beat maidens next out. Intrepido’s speed rating jumped from a 79 to an 89 from his first start to his second. Mullins is 20% wins with a 44% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Hector Berrios has the return call. Exotics.

3. Plutarch (10-1)

The well-bred Plutarch is still a maiden. In his debut, he settled a few lengths behind in the early stages but was slow to get going through the middle stages. Plutarch went widest of all around the far turn, slightly bumping with a rival, and he kept turning his head to the right. He took aim on Intrepido but ran out of real estate. Plutarch recorded a 102 late-pace figure for that performance. He returned to finish second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, where he did everything wrong. He was off slow, rank and hard to handle, was six-wide around the turn and ducked in repeatedly through the stretch while turning his head and running sporadically. He still made up 10 lengths and finished just 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Into Mischief’s son is the third foal out of 2015 champion 3-year-old-filly Stellar Wind. Plutarch’s full sister In the Stars won at a mile on the lawn, her only victory in six tries. Half-brother Magnify won at a mile over the main track in his third start. Baffert gave Plutarch a pre-race six-furlong move outside of Kristofferson and was timed in 1:12.60. Plutarch behaved himself and stalked his mate before drawing even, the pair finishing as a team. Exotics.

Also from the Baffert barn, Plutarch remains a maiden, though he did finish second in both of his previous starts. He finished 3 1/4 lengths behind Intrepido in his debut while beating next-out winner Provenance. He faced a large field in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, and undefeated winner Hey Nay Nay was the only one to beat him to the wire. So far, the rest of that field hasn’t been anything to write home about. Plutarch earned speed ratings in the mid-80s in both starts. After the colt’s erratic run in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, Baffert decided to put the blinkers back on for this start. Baffert is 25% wins with a 75% in-the-money clip with that angle in the last year and is 22% wins with a 56% in-the-money rate with turf to dirt runners during the same time frame. Kazushi Kimura, who is just 7% wins when riding for Baffert in the last year, has the mount and will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts. Pass.

4. Civil Liberty (5-1)

The cleverly named Civil Liberty had the misfortune to meet up with Brant in both starts. He finished a distant second in their debut, beating Balboa by 3 1/2 lengths. In his second start, Civil Liberty was third, bested by Desert Gate for second. The Doug O’Neil trainee’s Brisnet rating improved five points in his second start, and he owns a middling 90 late-pace figure. Independence Hall’s son is out of the Tiznow mare Love and Respect. She’s a half-sister to the multiple graded sprinter Miss Behaviour. The second dam, Successful Romance, was a stakes-placed sprinter. Doug O’Neill gave Civil Liberty a pre-race, easy five-furlong maintenance move in 1:04.80. Civil Liberty is professional, has tactical speed and has shown ability against quality rivals. Exotics.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Civil Liberty is a maiden after two starts. He was part of a hot pace in his debut against Brant and Balboa. While Brant swallowed up Civil Liberty and Balboa in the stretch, it was Civil Liberty who prevailed in their private duel on the lead, finishing 5 1/4 lengths behind Brant but 3 1/2 lengths clear of Balboa. Civil Liberty then was third in the Del Mar Futurity. The colt has a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed Rating and has run two good races. O’Neill is 7% wins with a 32% in-the-money rate with sprint to route runners in the last year and 8% wins with a 32% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years. Regular rider Antonio Fresu has the mount. Exotics.

5. Balboa (8-1)

Balboa has also seen the tail of Brant plus the tail of Civil Liberty in two of his three starts. After beating maidens, the fight went out of Balboa in the Del Mar Futurity, and he placed a distant third. His 77 late-pace figure is the lowest in this field. Not This Time’s son is out of the winning War Front mare Tap of War. The mare is half to the Grade 1 winning turf miler Halladay, and the second dam, Hightap, is a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1 1/16 miles. Balboa will be in the mix early and will have to improve to have a shot. Pass.

Also from the Baffert barn, Balboa was third on debut, finishing 8 3/4 lengths behind stablemate Brant in a maiden race that was less than a second off the track record and contained Civil Liberty and Intrepido. He returned in his second start to easily win a 6 1/2-furlong event by 7 3/4 lengths. Last-place finisher A. P. Again since has won two starts after dropping into claiming company. Balboa most recently was fifth in the Del Mar Futurity. His Brisnet Speed Rating increased from an 81 to a 91 and then dropped to an 84. The blinkers come off, and Baffert is 32% wins with a 63% in-the-money rate with that angle over the past year. Umberto Rispoli, who will be the colt’s third jockey in four starts, has the mount. Pass.

6. Kristofferson (9-5)

Kristofferson set the pace in his debut and was passed slightly in the stretch but came back to win by 3/4 length. He completed six furlongs in a sharp 1:08.83 with a strong 12.15 final furlong. His 96 late-pace figure is the field’s second-highest. Nyquist’s son is the third foal and only winner out of minor stakes winner Impasse. Her half-sister Majestic River is a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/16 miles. Kristofferson’s third dam was the multiple stakes-winning miler Tempus Fugit, a veteran of 32 starts. Kristofferson is professional and owns a series of quick four- and five-furlong breezes. He also had a six-furlong move with Plutarch. Contender.

The fourth runner from the Baffert barn, Kristofferson just debuted on Aug. 31 and won the six-furlong affair by three-quarters length. He beat eight rivals, and fifth-place finisher and stablemate Rio Grande and sixth-place finisher Plagarist faced off again in their next start, with Plagarist running second and Rio Grande nabbing third. Kristofferson received a field-best 99 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut. Baffert is 38% wins with a 69% in-the-money rate with sprite to route runners over the last year. Mike Smith takes over from J.J. Hernandez, who rides Desert Gate instead. Contender.