Head to Head: Disco Time tries to stay undefeated in Dwyer

Laurie

Ashley

1. Tip Top Thomas (2-1)

A winner of four lifetime, including his last three, Tip Top Thomas cuts back to a mile for his first start since August, when he held on to win the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx by a head in 1:42.50. His rising Brisnet ratings, speed from the rail and hot trainer-jockey combo make Tip Top Thomas a serious contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Tip Top Thomas is riding a three-race win streak and has finished outside the exacta only once. As a juvenile, Tip Top Thomas was second to Chancer McPatrick, who most recently was third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, in the Champagne (G1). In his most recent two starts, the son of Volatile won the Indiana Derby (G3) by a half-length and the Smarty Jones Stakes by a head. Tip Top Thomas’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start this year, culminating with a 98 last out. John Velazquez, who was aboard for his last two starts, retains the mount. Contender.

2. Disco Time (6-5)

Undefeated Disco Time hopes to make it five in a row. The Brad Cox trainee had a setback after winning an exciting edition of the Lecomte (G3) in January. In his first start back, Disco Time boogied his way to a 5 1/2-length victory in the St. Louis Derby at Fairmont Park over a field of well-regarded allowance and graded-placed runners. Disco Time has tactical speed and can set, press or close. He recorded a 103 showstopping Brisnet rating in his return, so there’s a potential for regression. Still, I can’t argue with perfection. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Disco Time is undefeated in four starts. He has won every race by open lengths except the Lecomte, which he won by a head after having to rally from the back of the field after breaking a step slow. The Lecomte produced graded-stakes-placed Built and Maximum Promise; Grade 1-placed Golden Afternoon; graded-stakes winner and Grade 1-placed Magnitude; stakes winners Jolly Samurai and Tough Catch; and stakes-placed Dapper Moon and Optical. Disco Time suffered an unspecified setback after the Lecomte and popped back up in September to win the St. Louis Derby. Cox is 27% wins with a 62% in-the-money rate with runners second off the layoff. Regular rider Florent Geroux has the call. Contender.

3. Dream On (15-1)

Mark Casse hopes to wake up Dream On’s form after off-the-board finishes in his last three starts as a turf sprinter-miler, although he closed in his last start to just miss third place. Not This Time’s son is out of Mama Kimbo, winner of the 2012 Fantasy Stakes, and four half-siblings are winners on dirt, including Baladeen, who won a minor stakes and placed in the 2016 Street Sense. Dream On has good leg extension when running on turf, and given his pedigree, he should handle dirt well. The concern is a 14-day turnaround while shipping. Live long shot. 

Trained by Mark Casse, Dream On has only one prior dirt start, a 19 3/4-length loss while finishing ninth of 10 in his debut. As a turf runner, the colt won the Woodhaven Stakes and the Penn Mile (G3) and was a close third in the Summer Stakes (G1). Casse is 16% wins with a 51% in-the-money clip in turf to dirt runners in the last year and is 16% wins with a 53% in-the-money rate with runners off a one- to 14-day layoff in the last five years. Regular rider Javier Castellano has the mount. Good stats for Casse, but I say dream on. Pass.

4. Stars and Stripes (3-1)

Stars and Stripes showed push-button acceleration in his first start against winners at Saratoga in July. He paraded home a 7 1/4-length winner, getting 1 1/8 miles in 1:51.22 with a tepid 13.58 final furlong. But he captured his second start at the same distance at Aqueduct in 1:49.19 with a sharp 12.25 final furlong, winning by 10 1/2 lengths. Bill Mott gave Not This Time’s son a pre-race 48.83 four-furlong move, second best of 26. Contender.

Trained by Bill Mott, Stars and Stripes did not debut until May of this year and was third as a 31-1 outsider in his initial start. Most in that race hit the board next out, and two of those became winners. Stars and Stripes won his next two starts by 17 3/4 lengths combined. Two rivals from his second start became winners at the claiming level, although the field he faced last out was nothing to write home about. The son of Not This Time enters off a 3 1/2-month layoff, and Mott is 15% wins with a 44% in-the-money clip with that angle. That layoff was caused by a muscle strain, so we might not see his peak form here. Stars and Stripes’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, topping off at a 95 last out. Given the lack of serious competition he’s faced, I’m not terribly impressed. Regular rider Jose Lezcano has the return call. Exotics.

5. Light Forever (30-1)

Light Forever takes another shot at stakes competition after a pair of failed attempts, the latest a 15-length defeat in the restricted Discovery Stakes. Previously, he stopped suddenly in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Pass.

Trained by Guadalupe Preciado, Light Forever was beaten by a total of 52 1/2 lengths in his last two starts. He was sixth behind Tip Top Thomas in the Smarty Jones two starts back and third in the Discovery Stakes last out. Preciado is 0% wins with a 31% in-the-money rate in stakes races over the last year, according to Race Lens. Jockey Andy Hernandez has only one career graded victory, and that came in 2022 in the Turf Monster Stakes (G3). Light Forever’s best speed rating is a 92, but he averages a 64. Pass.

6. Crudo (6-1)

Crudo drops in class, switches back to dirt and shortens up after losing ground in his last four starts. He beat up on Maryland-breds in the restricted Sir Barton earlier this year at 1 1/16 miles, so a mile should be a good fit. The speedy pacesetter has Brisnet ratings in the 90s and has one style of running: go to the front and stay there as long as he can. Maybe he’ll surprise, but I’ll pass.

Also from the Pletcher barn, Crudo returns to dirt after a pair of fourth-place finishes on the turf in the restricted Saranac Stakes and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational (G2). In addition to that Sir Barton win Laurie mentioned, Crudo also was eighth in the Belmont Stakes, beaten by 19 1/2 lengths, and fourth in the restricted Curlin Stakes, beaten by 5 3/4 lengths. Pletcher adds blinkers to the colt’s equipment and is 16% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip with the first time blinkers angle. Kendrick Carmouche has the return call. Pass.