Head to Head: Turf queens clash in the Jockey Club Oaks

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Scythian

Trained by Bill Mott, Scythian has two races over Aqueduct’s turf course, a win as a juvenile in the Miss Grillo (G2) and a third-place effort last out in New York-bred optional claiming company. Her most recent outing was just her second start in 2025. After finishing 12th in last year's Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Scythian received a 10-month vacation. She made her 2025 debut on dirt, finishing third, also in New York-bred optional-claiming company, beaten by just 3/4 lengths. She was beaten by just a length last out and was the favorite in both races. Mott has 17% wins with a 48% in-the-money clip with runners third off the layoff. But Scythian’s best Brisnet Speed Rating is the 87 she received when finishing 12th of 14 at the Breeders’ Cup. Sahin Civaci, a multiple graded-stakes-winning jockey in Canada, has the mount. Pass.

Scythian won the Miss Grillo (G2) last year but had trouble in both starts this year in a pair of state-bred optional-claiming events. She faceplanted in her first start back on the dirt. Then she was boxed in the entire way in her next start, had to check sharply and almost went over the rail when the pacesetter came over. Scythian found a seam strides from the wire but missed by a surging length. Despite the trouble, the Bill Mott trainee earned an 84 Brisnet rating and 86 late-pace figure. Now she stretches out for the first time, but her half-sibling Dancing Dean won over this course and distance. Scythian has back class and a tactical running style. Other than her six-furlong debut and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she also had trouble, Scythian has gained ground in each start. This is her third start off the layoff, but she needs to improve to be competitive. Pass.

2.  Hereforagoodtime

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Hereforagoodtime has not finished outside the trifecta since getting off to a 3: 0-0-0 start to kick off her career. It took the filly six attempts to find the winner’s circle, finally doing so in a 1 1/8-mile off-the-turf event at Keeneland in April. She then won an optional claimer before finishing third in the Regret (G3), second in the Pucker Up (G3), and third in the Blackwood Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational (G3) last out. She’s had no answer for Fionn the last two times they have met, but she can be counted on to pick up a minor award. Hereforagoodtime earned a career high 91 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Regret (G3) and a second-best 89 last out at Kentucky Downs. John Velazquez takes over from Tyler Gaffalione. Exotics.

Hereforagoodtime has seen the tail end of Fionn twice, including the Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational (G3) at Kentucky Downs. Although she isn’t in that one’s league, Hereforagoodtime was even through the uphill stretch in her last, getting the photo for third. It was her initial start at 1 5/6 miles over an undulating course. The Brendan Walsh trainee earned an 89 Brisnet rating and a career-best 94 late pace figure. Justify’s daughter has tactical speed, and she can set, press or close, as needed. She rarely wins but can be counted on to pick up a check. Exotics.

3.  National Archive

Trained by Miguel Clement, National Archive is 6: 3-1-0 with two wins coming against New York-bred company. But she won her most recent race in open company and did so at the 1 3/8-mile distance of the Oaks despite Flavien Prat losing his crop. She also was second at the same distance two starts back. But the filly’s speed ratings have slowly declined in her last couple of starts. Manny Franco takes over from Prat, who sticks with Fionn. Pass.

National Archive is the only filly in the field who owns a pair of starts at this distance, and she benefited from taking the short way around both times. She finished third in her first attempt at the distance but had to alter course in the late stretch while the winner had a straight course. Flavian Prat lulled them to sleep in her next start, then sprinted for home, safeguarding her position and holding off rivals by a head. The Miguel Clement trainee’s Brisnet E1, E2 and late-pace figures were a steady 76 throughout, with an overall 83 rating. National Archive is stepping up in class and has tactical speed, but she needs to improve to beat this group. Pass.

4.  Fionn

Trained by Brad Cox, Fionn was last seen finishing fourth as the favorite in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. It was just her second lifetime loss; her first came against the brilliant Nitrogen in the Appalachian (G2) earlier in the year. Fionn has victories in the Regret (G3), Belmont Oaks Invitational, and Dueling Ground Oaks Invitational, in which she earned a career-high 93 Brisnet Speed Rating. Cox is removing the blinkers for this start and has 35% wins with a 62% in-the-money clip with the blinkers off angle. Flavien Prat, who was aboard for her last three starts, has the return call. Contender.

Grade 1 heroine Fionn flew from the back of the pack to capture the Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational by a half-length, earning the hat trick. However, the streak was snapped in the Queen Elizabeth II. The Brad Cox trainee was off a step slow, wide the entire way and left with too much to do in the stretch. Fionn checked in fourth, 4 3/4 lengths back and bested 3 1/2 lengths by runner-up Laurelin. It was Fionn’s only off-the-board finish, and she might have regressed from the Dueling Grounds Oaks effort. Contender.

5.  Evershed

Trained by Arnaud Delacour, Evershed finished second in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational and the Old Dominion Oaks in her last two starts. In the Saratoga Oaks, she finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Laurelin as the 14-1 longest shot in the field. She earned a field second-best 98 speed rating for her runner-up effort to Laurelin, but that number dropped to an 83 last out at Colonial Downs. The Saratoga Oaks was an outlier of an effort, and Delacour has 4% wins with a 28% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years. Dylan Davis, who was aboard at Saratoga, has the mount. Exotics.

Evershed was keen inside Laurelin in the early stages of the Saratoga Oaks Invitational. Laurelin made the first move down the stretch, and Evershed didn’t have the speed to go with her. Evershed ran with the fillies to her inside until breaking clear late, 1 3/4 lengths behind her rival, earning a career-high 98 speed rating. The  Arnaud Delacour trainee set an unpressured pace in the Old Dominion Oaks over the soft turf at Colonial but offered no resistance to the eventual winner, finishing 3/4 length behind. Her speed rating regressed to 83. Evershed likes to set or press the pace and does well off the layoff. Exotics.

6.  Don’t Jinx It

Also from the Clement barn, Don’t Jinx It was second as the tepid favorite last out in the Christiana Stakes at Delaware Park. Overall, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy has two wins from seven starts, including a victory at Saratoga over the summer in optional claiming company. Don’t Jinx It’s best speed rating is the 80 she received when breaking her maiden four starts back. Jaime Rodriguez has the call. Pass.

Don’t Jinx It steps up in class and distance after hitting the board in Delaware Park’s Christiana Stakes, winning an optional-claiming event at Saratoga. Although the Miguel Clement trainee earned a pair of 79 speed ratings, her late-pace figure for both races was 102, the only filly in this field to score triple digits twice in her career. Don’t Jinx It likes to be part of the pace scenario. Exotics. 

7.  Laurelin

Trained by Graham Motion, Laurelin was most recently second in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, her first defeat in six career starts. She won a trio of listed stakes before taking her graded debut, the Saratoga Oaks Invitational, by 1 3/4 lengths. Lush Lips, who won the QEII Cup, is not in this field. Laurelin received a career- and field-high 100 Brisnet Speed Rating for the Saratoga Oaks. Regular rider Kendrick Carmouche has the return call. Contender.

Laurelin tasted defeat for the first time in the QE II, unable to catch Lush Lips over a course rated good. Previously, she bested Evershed in the Saratoga Oaks and earned a 101 Brisnet rating. The Graham Motion-trained Ireland-bred is the field’s sole entrant with a triple-digit speed rating. Contender.

8.  Unmerited Favor

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Unmerited Favor needed an extra-long route of ground to get the job done. The daughter of Summer Front went 0-for-4 in her first four starts before finally finding the winner’s circle when stretching out to 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs. She beat a quartet of older runners in doing so. She made it two in a row when she captured a 1 3/16-mile allowance race at Keeneland, once again beating older runners. Unmerited Favor’s speed ratings have improved over her last three starts, topping out with an 85 last out. Christopher Elliot, who has 0% wins with a 33% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years, takes over from Jose Ortiz. Exotics.

Now a winner of two starts, Unmerited Favor found her calling as a turf router in her fifth start, holding on to beat maidens by a nose at 1 5/16 miles. She was off slowly in her last start, a 1 3/16-mile allowance event at Keeneland, passed rivals like they were tied to the rail and won by two lengths. Ken McPeek’s charge has rising Brisnet ratings, and her last two speed ratings are competitive with this field. She showed tactical speed in both starts and is improving. Exotics.