Head to Head: Split opinions on juveniles in Breeders’ Futurity

Laurie

Ashley

1. Blackout Time (10-1)

Blackout Time improved considerably in his second start, professionally capturing a one-mile maiden event at Ellis Park by 9 3/4 lengths over 11 rivals while under a hand ride the entire way. The pace was moderate, and the Ken McPeek trainee completed the distance in 1:37.12 with a strong 12.78 final furlong. His Brisnet rating improved slightly to 92, and his 97 late-pace figure is one of the Breeders' Futurity's top three. Not This Time's son is the third foal out of the Grade 3-winning turf router Beauty Parlor. Blackout Time's female family is turf-oriented and, besides numerous European group winners, includes Enola Gay, who set a stakes record of 1:33.97 in the Appalachian Stakes. McPeek gave Blackout Time a pair of 1:00 five-furlong moves for this event. Contender.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Blackout Time was second on debut after brushing the gate at the start. Three from that field have become winners, with one switching to turf and another dropping into maiden-claiming company. Blackout Time won at second asking, taking a one-mile race by 9 3/4 lengths. Four from that field were next-out winners, two who switched to turf, and two others who finished in the superfecta in their next start. The colt earned a 90 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut and a 92 for his victory last out. Cristian Torres takes over for the injured Brian Hernandez Jr. Contender.

2. Big Dom (4-1)

Big Dom takes on more experienced runners after eking out a neck victory in his Saratoga debut. Racing without blinkers, he was green in the stretch, wandering with his head turned and unfocused even when he gained ground on his rival. The Tom Amoss trainee won the six-furlong event on talent. Big Dom stopped the clock at 1:09.47 with a sharp 12:12 final furlong. By second-leading second-crop sire McKinzie, Big Dom is half to a pair of black-type earners, Canadian Derby (G3) hero Abeliefinthislivin and multiple stakes-placed sprinter-miler Fully Living, who bore Grade 3-winning turf router Ballet Dancing and the multiple graded-placed handicap horse Untreated. Big Dom's dam Half A.P. is a half-sister to the 2003 2-year-old champion filly Halfbridled. Big Dom was more professional in a pair of recent five-furlong works at Churchill while working inside mates. He was pushed to stay with the older multiple graded-placed Quickick and was outfinished by the older Crisis Manager, who is still a maiden after five starts. Not inspiring. Pass.

Trained by Tom Amoss, Big Dom was a debut winner in a six-furlong event at Saratoga. As Laurie pointed out, it wasn’t a very professional race, and he was lucky he won it. But he did receive a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. It was contested on Aug. 23, and none from that field have made subsequent starts. Amoss is 7% wins with a 31% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners in the last year and 3% wins with a 24% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over from his brother Jose, and although he infrequently rides for Amoss, the pair have a 60% win rate together. Pass.

3. Diciassette (20-1)

Diciassette ships from Gulfstream Park for a class test over fast dirt. Undefeated in two starts, he showed athleticism, winding his way through horses in the stretch to hold on for a one-length victory in the six-furlong Proud Man Stakes over a sloppy track. Patrick Biancone's charge was timed in 1:11.96 with a 13.27 final furlong. His Brisnet ratings are in the high 80s. By second-leading third-crop sire Mitole, Diciassette is half to stakes-placed sprinter Global Legend. Their dam is half to multiple Grade 1 winner Mor Spirit. Diciassette is distantly related to American Pharoah Stakes entrant Plutarch through the mare Sequins, who is Diciassette's fourth dam and Plutarch's third. The Proud Man field was primarily composed of maidens who are still hunting for victory. Pass.

Trained by Patrick Biancone, Diciassette, Italian for the number 17, is undefeated in two starts, both at Gulfstream Park. He faced Florida-breds only in his debut, and third-place finisher Wayne’s Law won his next two starts, including the Aventura Stakes. From the Proud Stakes field, fourth-place finisher Trelawny was third in the FTBOA Florida Sire Dr. Fager Stakes next out, and fifth-place finisher Fourth and Central won the Dr. Fager. Biancone is 2% wins with a 13% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years with his sole graded victory during that time coming when Diamond Oops won the Phoenix (G2) in 2020. Regular jockey Jonathan Ocasio, who has never won a graded stakes and last rode in a graded stakes in August 2021, has the return call. Pass.

4. Spice Runner (12-1)

Spice Runner ran down Comport late in the Iroquois (G3) despite wandering around the track and switching to the wrong lead. The Steve Asmussen trainee won by a head on talent, completing a mile in 1:36.59 with a 13.25 final furlong. Spice Runner's full brother Gunite is a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and was second in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Sprint. He placed once in three tries at a mile. Their dam, Simple Surprise, is a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Although he's won or placed in three of four starts, Spice Runner's speed ratings are in the high 80s, and his late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the field. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Spice Runner won the Iroquois (G3) in his last start. He also was second in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes but a disappointing fifth in the Bashford Manor. Spice Runner has been a head scratcher for me. I had him for the win in the Bashford Manor and was burned. Then I used him underneath in the Iroquois (G3), which he won. I feel like either way I play him I’m going to be wrong. Spice Runner did equal the 89 he received for the Ellis Park Juvenile in the Iroquois (G3), but that won’t be good enough against this field. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from regular rider Jose Ortiz, who will ride Ewing instead. Exotics.

5. Litmus Test (8-1)

After beating maidens, Litmus Test failed to live up to his name in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). The Bob Baffert trainee was four to five wide the entire way. In the stretch, He ducked from the crop and bumped hard with Civil Liberty, who nosed Litmus Test out for third place. Neither was in the class of Desert Gate or Brant. By Nyquist, Litmus Test is out of the Malibu Moon mare Study Hard. The mare is a full sister to the multiple graded winning sprinter Sweet August Moon. The third dam, Silent Turn, was a multiple stakes winner at distances of up to 1 1/16 miles and was Grade 1 placed at 1 1/8 miles. Litmus Test is a large, long-striding colt, but he wings or "paddles" with his left foreleg. He kept morning company with Desert Gate and had a recent six-furlong move with Buetane. Litmus Test's Brisnet rating improved slightly in his second start, but his late-pace figures are at the low end of the Futurity field. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Litmus Test ships east in the hopes of picking up Kentucky Derby points while his better-regarded stablemates Desert Gate and Kristofferson along with two additional stablemates stay home for the American Pharoah (G1). Although Baffert continues to dominate the California racing circuit, he has not been nearly as successful when shipping out of state. In the past year he’s just 8% wins with an objectively good 52% in-the-money rate in graded stakes outside California. None from Litmus Test’s debut race have won since, though a few hit the board in their next outing while dropping in class, and Laurie summed up the Del Mar Futurity (G1) nicely. Flavien Prat, who will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts, has the mount. Exotics.

6. Ted Noffey (4-5)

In his second start, Ted Noffey was on his toes in the Hopeful (G1), breaking on top, but content to tailgate the pace on the outside. He was a little uneven at the top of the stretch, drifting out while listening to the rivals behind him, not wanting to detach. Once sorted out, Ted Noffey got into gear and opened up by 8 1/2 lengths. The Todd Pletcher charge completed seven furlongs in 1:22.35 with a sharp 12.17 final furlong. Into Mischief's son is the second foal out of the multiple graded-placed turf miler Streak of Luck. Class skips to the third dam, multiple stakes-winning miler Lindsay Jean. Ted Noffey is undefeated in both starts and earned a dazzling 102 speed rating for his Hopeful performance. His 108 late-pace figure is the highest in the field. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Ted Noffey won the Hopeful (G1) last out as the third betting choice. I wasn’t on board with him for that race, opting to go with his stablemate Emphasis instead. The last-place finisher from Ted Noffey’s debut was a next-out winner on turf, and two others landed in the superfecta next out. The colt’s Brisnet Speed Rating made a significant jump from his first start to his second, going from an 85 to a 102. Pletcher is 18% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip in the last year with sprint to route runners and 20% wins with a 54% in-the-money rate with first-time routers. Regular jockey John Velazquez retains the mount. Contender.

7. Ewing (9-2)

Ewing jumped into the spotlight with a 12-length maiden score at Saratoga over an outclassed short field. He grabbed the lead shortly after the start of the Saratoga Special (G2) and turned back a challenge by Obliteration, the 10-length winner of the Sanford Stakes. Despite wandering slightly in the stretch, Ewing won by a measured length. The Mark Casse trainee completed 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:18 with a slow 7.03 final furlong. Ewing's speed rating decreased 10 points, and his 75 late-pace figure is the lowest in this field. By third-leading first-crop sire Knicks Go, Ewing is the sixth foal out of the unraced Indian Charlie mare Sassy Ali Joy. Ewing's half-sister, Tuscan Queen, is a stakes-placed turf sprinter. Ewing compiled a record of sharp breezes, including a second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 59 flat outside of the 2-year-old maiden Reckless. Ewing started several lengths behind, drew about even around the 1/8 pole, but stayed slightly behind until his momentum carried him in front late in the gallop out. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, Ewing is undefeated in two starts, including the Saratoga Special (G2). None from Ewing’s debut race have become winners, but fourth-place finisher She’s On a Roll hit the board in her next two starts after switching to turf. Obliteration and Camigol, the second- and third-place finishers of the Saratoga Special (G2), ran second next out in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Sprint on turf and the FTBOA Florida Sire Dr. Fager Stakes for Florida-breds, respectively. I don’t like that Ewing’s speed rating dropped in the Saratoga Special (G2), but I also don’t think he emptied the tank either. Regular rider Jose Ortiz retains the mount. Contender.