Head to Head: Split opinions on Risen Star favorites
The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes is the fourth stop on the Fair Grounds road to Kentucky Derby 2026. The 1 1/18 mile race also is the first of the next round of preps in which the ante is upped to 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers.
Gun Runner Stakes winner Chip Honcho, Lecomte (G3) winner Golden Tempo and two other Fair Grounds preps alumni are four of the eight entries. Remsen (G2) winner Paladin and fourth-place finisher Courting ship south to try deeper waters, and Universe attempts to return to form after a poor showing in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
The Risen Star is the 12th and final race on Saturday’s card. Post time is slated for 6:30 p.m. EST. There is a 30% chance of showers beginning around noon on Saturday, but wind could be the bigger factor. The forecast calls for a southeast wind of 5 to 15 mph and increasing to 15 to 25 mph as the afternoon progresses.
We examine all the angles, looking for a sweetheart of a winner to cap the Valentine’s Day card.
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Ashley |
Laurie |
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1. Universe (8-1) |
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Trained by Kenny McPeek, Universe failed as the favorite last out in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He was last away and never seriously involved, finishing seventh of eight and beaten by 11 1/4 lengths. Winner Strategic Risk was 10th next out in last weekend’s Southwest Stakes (G3), but runner-up Silent Tactic improved to win the Southwest. Others who ran back from the Smarty Jones included Baytown Dreamer (third then 11th), Sleepingonfreedom (fourth then seventh), and Rancho Santa Fe (fifth then fourth). It was a puzzling effort after Universe finished third in the Champagne (G1), second in the Street Sense (G3), and second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). But then again, Street Sense (G3) winner Incredibolt was sixth and last, beaten by 25 1/4 lengths, in the Holy Bull (G3) in his next start. McPeek puts the blinkers back on and has 13% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip with that angle over the last year. Christopher Elliott has the mount. Exotics. |
Sent off as the favorite, Universe broke slowly in the Smarty Jones stakes and decided it wasn’t his day, checking in an uncharacteristic seventh, his first time out of the money. Joel Rosario later remarked that Universe had a hard time handling the track, so I’m willing to draw a line through the race. 1 1/8 miles might be at the top of Universe’s distance range. So far, his second-crop sire, Global Campaign, has five starters at 1 1/8 miles, and one checked in third. Universe is the second foal and first winner out of the unplaced Quality Road mare Equalityforall. Class skips to the third generation to Grade 3-winning handicap horse Called to Serve. The Kenny McPeek trainee has been breezing consistently at the Fair Grounds, so we should see a better result. Lower exotics.
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2. Golden Tempo (3-1) |
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Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Golden Tempo is undefeated in two career starts, including a three-quarter-length triumph last out in the Lecomte. With Jose Ortiz up, the son of Curlin broke a bit slow and settled at the rear of the field, spotting the leaders more than 10 lengths at one point. The colt started picking off foes on the far turn, initially splitting rivals before moving down to a wide-open rail. He made steady progress, finally nailing Mesquite and Carson Street late inside the final sixteenth. He received an 88 Brisnet Speed Rating and remained undefeated at Fair Grounds. It was a professional effort, but also very one-paced. Regular rider Jose Ortiz has the return call. Exotics. |
Golden Tempo made history as the first horse since 1974 to win the Lecomte Stakes in his second career start. He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.98 with a 6.73 final furlong, in a thrilling finish, besting his stablemate Mesquite by 3/4 length, with Carson Street a neck back in third. The Cherie DeVaux trainee’s Brisnet rating improved by four points, and his speed ratings showed steady progression. Curlin’s son is the second competitor out of Carrumba (Bernardini), a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Class skips to the third generation and includes Grade 1-winning turf router Dancing Forever. Golden Tempo has classic breeding and should relish the extra distance. Contender.
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3. Carson Street (8-1) |
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Trained by Brendan Walsh, Carson Street looked like a winner in the stretch of the Lecomte, but he just couldn’t hang on inside the final sixteenth, losing it all by just a length while finishing third to Golden Tempo and Mesquite. Carson Street has never been worse than third but has only one win, which he managed two starts ago when he romped in the slop by 11 1/4 lengths. Maybe mud was the key? Ben Curtis, who was aboard for the colt’s lone win, has the mount. Exotics. |
Carson Street looked like a winner in the Lecomte stretch after setting a moderate pace but couldn’t hold off the top pair. The Brendan Walsh trainee’s Brisnet rating improved to a career high 87, but his late-pace figures are in the 70s. Street Sense’s son is half to multiple Grade 3-winning turf miler Canoodling. Their unraced dam, Miz Kella, is a full sister to 2012 champion 2-year-old colt,Shanghai Bobby. Carson Street has the pedigree to handle the stretch out, but he has lost ground in three of four starts, and his forwardly placed running style doesn’t help. Perhaps he can hold on for a piece. Exotics.
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4. Paladin (8-5) |
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Trained by Chad Brown, Paladin crossed the wire second by a head in his debut but was awarded the win because of interference from “winner” Renegade. The Gun Runner colt proved he didn’t need help to win by scoring by two lengths over Renegade in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen. Renegade has since flattered his rival by winning the Sam F. Davis by 3 3/4 lengths. Remsen third-place finisher Balboa was second in the Jerome next out, and fifth-place finisher Grittiness was second in the Withers. Paladin has the two highest Brisnet ratings in the field, with a debut 91 (tied with Universe) and a 98 in the Remsen. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Flavien Prat, who will be riding Nysos in the Saudi Cup. Contender. |
Like Golden Tempo, Paladin captured a stakes in his second start. He cleared late in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen to win by two authoritative lengths. Chad Brown noted that Paladin lost his front right shoe during the running, yet the colt never took a misstep. He handled the 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.97, closing with a solid 12.72 final furlong. Paladin’s speed rating jumped seven points to 98, and he earned a solid 92 late-pace figure. Gun Runner’s son is the third foal out of the unraced Secret Sigh (Tapit), and he has classic-distance breeding. Paladin’s second dam India was a multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler and a half-sister to Pilfer, dam of Grade 1 winner To Honor and Serve, plus his half-sister Grade 1 heroine Angela Rene. Paladin is proven at 1 1/8 miles and has classic distance breeding. Contender.
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5. Chip Honcho (6-1) |
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Trained by Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner Stakes winner Chip Honcho most recently was fourth in the Lecomte, beaten for it all by just 1 3/4 lengths. Chip Honcho was prominent early in the race and was second in the stretch. But he fell victim to the infamous long Fair Grounds stretch as Golden Tempo and Mesquite rallied from the rear of the field, and Carson Street refused to yield third after being passed for the top two spots. Asmussen will take the blinkers off and has 14% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip over the last year with that angle. Luis Saez replaces Paco Lopez, who does not have an alternate mount in the field. Exotics. |
As Ashley noted, Chip Honcho was a casualty of the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Lecomte after holding previously to win the Gun Runner at the same distance. But the Gun Runner Stakes final half-furlong was 7.48 compared to the Lecomte’s 6.73. The Steve Asmussen trainee’s E1 and E2 figures showed his speed was evenly distributed at 96 and 97, yet his late-pace fiture dropped to 75, the lowest in the Risen Star field. Connect’s son is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Miss My Rose. There isn’t much black type in the first three generations of the family. Although Race Lens shows Connect’s offspring have a 21% win rate at 1 1/8 miles, Chip Honcho hasn’t shown positive signs that he’ll handle the extra distance. Exotics.
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6. Colt Forty Seven (20-1) |
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Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Colt Forty Seven’s debut came in an off-the-turf race at Indianapolis, where he finished ninth and last in the five-furlong affair, beaten by 20 3/4 lengths. His next four starts were on turf, and he went 4: 1-0-1 with his sole victory coming in a mile maiden claiming event. Desormeaux moved him back to dirt, and he responded with a 4 1/2-length victory going seven furlongs against claimers. He has since finished fourth in a starter race and second in an optional claimer on the Lecomte undercard. James Graham gets the return call. Pass. |
Colt Forty Seven won a pair of claiming races at 2, but his pedigree suggests he’ll improve with maturity, and he did that in his first start of the year in an optional claimer. Colt Forty Seven had zero early speed and lingered about eight lengths behind the field. He motored five wide around the far turn and picked off runners, finishing a clear second best to the loose-on-the-lead winner. Keith Desormeaux’s charge earned a career-best 81 speed rating and an 83 late-pace figure. Bolt d’Oro’s son is the first foal out of the winning miler Getting Lucky (by Pioneerof the Nile). Colt Forty Seven’s pedigree is all stamina-oriented, with Smart Strike and Deputy Minister as his second and third damsires. Class skips to the third generation of the distaff line, and his second dam’s half-sister, Got Lucky, won the Spinster (G1) at 1 1/8 miles. She bore the long-winded Slip Mahoney, who won the 1 3/16-mile Bourbon Trail Stakes and placed second in the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone Stakes. Colt Forty Seven could improve in his second start off the layoff and should love the extra distance. Long-shot exotics.
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7. Courting (6-1) |
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Trained by Todd Pletcher, Courting has sandwiched a victory between a fourth-place debut effort and a fourth-place finish in the Remsen, in which he was seven lengths behind winner Paladin. So far, the full-brother to Clairiere has done his best running on the lead, and Pletcher will add blinkers for this race. Pletcher has 13% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with runners with first-time blinkers and 14% wins with a 47% in-the-money rate with blinkers on over the past year, according to Race Lens. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Contender. |
Courting bumped and had slight interference around the first turn in the Remsen while racing near the back of the pack. He went three wide the entire way, methodically picked off horses and finished fourth. Todd Pletcher’s charge improved his Brisnet rating to 90, with an 80 late-pace figure. Curlin’s son is out of the multiple Grade 1 heroine Cavorting, and he is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Clairiere, multiple graded-placed Judge Miller and half to stakes winner La Crete. As an interesting note, although Courting is a chestnut and big sis Clairiere a bay, they have similar facial markings. Todd Pletcher gave Courting a pre-race breeze at Palm Beach Downs in company with the maiden Mapped Flight, timed in 48.32 for four furlongs. Wearing blinkers, Courting flanked his mate, then passed him near the wire without being asked and galloped out strongly. Courting has tactical speed and, as Ashley remarked, won as a pacesetter. Contender.
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8. Quality Mischief (10-1) |
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Trained by Brad Cox, Quality Mischief was fourth in the Gun Runner Stakes and fifth in the Lecomte. He was beaten by just a length in the Gun Runner and three lengths in the Lecomte, so he has been putting in good efforts, just not good enough. Considering that he’s facing several of the same rivals plus another two talented colts, I’m predicting that he doesn’t come quite as close to the win this time, even with the switch to Florent Geroux. Pass. |
Quality Mischief broke slowly from the rail and lingered at the back of the Lecomte with Golden Tempo. The pair parted ways around the sweeping far turn; Golden Tempo took the overland route while Quality Mischief hugged the rail. But Quality Mischief tipped out in the stretch and got stuck in rush-hour traffic, came out and bumped, then straightened out with clear running room and picked off horses. Into Mischief’s son is half to 2023 Saratoga Special (G2) runner-up Market Street. Quality Mischief’s dam is half to Grade 3 winner Super Ninety Nine, and his second dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1 heroine Exogenous. The Brad Cox trainee’s speed rating stayed steady at 84, with the same late-pace figure. Exotics.
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Final thoughts
Ashley: Look for Carson Street, Paladin, Chip Honcho and Courting to be prominent early. I know Courting’s past performances indicate a more sustained to pressing-type style, but his best race finish-wise came when he dictated his own terms. Incidentally, that race was also his worst in terms of speed rating, but you really can’t expect any different for a race that was run at nearly a perfect 12-second clip.
It’s not often that I would look so highly on a runner exiting a prep at Aqueduct, but Paladin is bred to be something special, and so far, he’s looking good. He has the two highest speed ratings in the field, and, by virtue of the Remsen, he already has a victory at 1 1/8 miles. The only other runner in the field with prior experience going nine furlongs is Courting, who finished seven lengths behind Paladin in the Remsen.
Circling back to Courting, I like the addition of blinkers. In watching his past races, I have noticed that he is slow to build momentum once he’s set down for the stretch drive. In his debut and the Remsen, he was coming on at the end but left himself too much to do in racing off the pace. Hopefully, the addition of blinkers will get him back in the race early. The long Fair Grounds stretch also should be to his advantage, even if he isn’t as forwardly placed as I feel he should be.
We don’t typically see a Lecomte-Risen Star double. War of Will was the last to do it, and that was in 2019. International Star (2015) and Friesan Fire (2009) managed the feat in the last 10 years. So, with that history in mind, I’m not going to take Golden Tempo on top, though I will use him in my selections.
Carson Street couldn’t hang on in the Lecomte and will be asked to go an extra sixteenth this time. The same goes for Chip Honcho. So, I’m taking the two Remsen runners on top. Golden Tempo is undefeated at Fair Grounds and is a must-play. After that, you might as well throw darts.
Laurie: Over the last 15 years, including the two divisions in 2020, only last year’s winner, Magnitude, finished worse than fourth in his previous start. Only two winners entered the race off a layoff, and only three had lost ground in the stretch of their most recent outing.
No particular running style is favored. But pace pressers, within two lengths of the lead, and closers fare best.
Favorites are hit or miss. Nine of 15 placed in the top four, but only four won. Sierra Leone (2024) was the last. The average win payout over the last 15 years was $35.64. Last year, Magnitude rewarded his backers to the tune of $88.40.
Posts 4 and higher are the place to be. The rail position won twice.
Chip Honcho is a historic favorite based on his press-pacing style and a close fourth-place finish in the Lecomte. But although Connect’s offspring handle 1 1/8 miles, Chip Honcho has lost ground in three of four starts. Not inspiring confidence. I might regret those words after the race.
Tossing the historical profile for a moment, will it be Paladin vs. Golden Tempo, or will someone pull the upset? Only two Risen Star winners in 15 years won after a two-month or longer layoff.
Sierra Leone was second in the 2023 Remsen. Incidentally, he and Paladin have a lot in common. Both are one-run closers, conditioned by Chad Brown and owned by the same connections. Things that make you go hmm.
So, I’m giving Golden Tempo the nod off his more recent race here. Ashley and I like the same top three, but I’m tossing Quality Mischief into the mix.
If I were playing the field, I’d make a ticket with Colt Forty Seven on it. Keith Desormeaux lit the tote in 2013 when Ive Struck a Nerve won and paid $272.40. I like Colt Forty Seven’s pedigree, and there’s no doubt that he should improve with distance and maturity. We’ll see if he has the class.
Selections
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Ashley |
Laurie |
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4. Paladin (8-5) |
2. Golden Tempo (3-1) |
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7. Courting (6-1) |
4. Paladin (8-5) |
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2. Golden Tempo (3-1) |
7. Courting (6-1) |
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5. Chip Honcho (6-1) |
8. Quality Mischief (10-1) |