Head to Head: Split decision on wide open Wood Memorial

Laurie

Ashley

1. Napoleon Solo (7-2)

Napoleon Solo ran out of oats in the Fountain of Youth (G2), checking in fifth. He ducked the tougher competition in Florida and Arkansas in favor of returning to Aqueduct, where he won the Champagne (G1) last year. Napoleon Solo might find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range. Sire Liam’s Map gets the occasional winner at 1 1/8 miles and beyond; Race Lens shows 11% winners. Napoleon Solo has a turf-oriented distaff line. He is the first foal out of the stakes-winning turf sprinter-miler Atomic Blonde. Class skips to the third generation of this female family and contains several European and Australian Group winners. Napoleon Solo has a high knee gait with a “turfy” rocking horse action. Chad Summers gave the pretty gray colt a second-to-last bullet five-furlong gate breeze in 1:00.40 at Palm Meadows. He gets to take the short way around and should be fit against a lesser group. Exotics.

Trainer Chad Summers has become quite adept at avoiding legit competition with this colt. He opted to skip the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after Napoleon Solo ran too fast in his Champagne win. More recently, Summers scratched this son of Liam’s Map from last weekend’s Arkansas Derby (G1), which he was using to avoid the Florida Derby (G1) after Napoleon Solo finished fifth in the Fountain of Youth (G2), because it came up a bit tough. But if the goal is to get to Kentucky, the path of least resistance is a good one to follow. Commandment doubled down in the Florida Derby, and Renegade dominated the Arkansas Derby. There is no one of that caliber in this field, and Napoleon Solo clearly loves the New York tracks. The 98 the colt earned when winning the Champagne is tied for the second-best speed rating in the field. Summers is 21% wins with a 55% in-the-money clip with runners second off a layoff over the last five years, according to Race Lens. The returning Paco Lopez, who has not ridden for Summers in the last year, has the mount. Contender.

2. Talk to Me Jimmy (6-1)

Talk to Me Jimmy had it his own way in the Withers, walking through slow early fractions and winning by 11 lengths in 1:51.68 with a 13.80 final furlong. He earned a career-best 96 Brisnet rating, but his 84 late-pace figure is at the lower end of the Wood field. By Modernist, a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles, Talk to Me Jimmy is already a winner at 1 1/8 miles. There’s little black type in his distaff line. His dam’s half-sister bore Marckie’s Water, a multiple stakes-winning turf router. Talk to Me Jimmy has speed to his inside but is proven at the distance. Contender.

Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, Talk to Me Jimmy enters off an 11-length score in the Withers Stakes, where he earned a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. It was a 21-point jump from his previous best, a 75 when finishing third against New York-bred maidens. The winner of Talk to Me Jimmy’s debut race is now multiple-stakes placed. The runner-up of the colt’s second race, Sunday Boy, broke his maiden in the New York Stallion Series Stakes next out. In the Withers, Talk to Me Jimmy beat Grittiness, who was second in the Virginia Derby next out; Ottinho; Star Sweeper, who was a distant second in the City of Brotherly Love Stakes; and multiple New York-bred stakes-placed Fourth and One. Rodriguez hasn’t saddled a graded winner since sending out Hot Peppers in the 2022 Victory Ride (G3). Jockey Ruben Silvera has only one career graded-stakes win: the 2023 Westchester (G3) with Repo Rocks. Exotics.

3. Right to Party (20-1)

In his one-mile maiden victory, Right to Party had zero early speed and benefited from a moderately fast early speed duel. He was green down the stretch and passed the tired, dueling pacesetters, getting his final furlong in 13.95. He was squeezed and had to steady at the start of the Gotham, which left him six lengths behind his closest rival. He circled the field several wide around the far turn and looked good passing tired horses. Right to Party has a stamina-over-speed pedigree, but his running style suggests he’ll handle 1 1/8 miles. Constitution’s son is out of a mare by Grade 1 winning sprinter Emcee. Emcee’s dam Surf Club is Constitution’s second dam. The second generation of Right to Party’s second dam is Grade 3-winning miler Chimichurri. Her descendants include 2017 Canadian horse of the year Wonder Gadot, Grade 1-winning miler Secret Spice and Grade 1-winning sprinter Hard Not to Love. The Ken McPeek trainee’s speed ratings are improving, but his late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the field. Odd for a one-run closer. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Right to Party was last seen finishing third, 7 1/2 lengths behind winner Iron Honor, in the Gotham. The son of Constitution was also third to Iron Honor in their debut race. Sandwiched between those losses is a maiden win, with four of six rivals having not raced since. The other two were off-the-board next out. The Beastie Boys said you gotta fight for your right to party. Well, this colt can party all he wants so long as he doesn’t expect to do so in the winner’s circle. Christopher Elliott has the mount. Pass.

4. Steel (12-1)

Steel had a thrilling last-to-first debut at Gulfstream. He was off slow, then circled the field and wore them down, winning by a nose in a slow 1:39.93 with a 13.93 final furlong. Maybe not so thrilling after all. Steel has a miler’s pedigree, borderline for 1 1/8 miles. By Tapit out of the multiple winning miler, Snuggs and Kisses, Steel is half to the stakes-winning sprinter O Besos, who was third in the 2021 Louisiana Derby (G2), and to stakes-placed sprinter Transatlantic Kiss. The Bill Mott trainee’s Brisnet pace figures show an even, one-paced energy distribution of 84, 85 and 84, with an overall 83 rating. He’ll need to step it up to have a shot. Pass.

Trained by Bill Mott, Steel was a debut winner at Gulfstream, getting up by a nose while racing a mile. He was sent off as the third longest shot in the field of nine. Only two from that field have made subsequent starts, and they both finished off-the-board. Junior Alvarado was aboard for that race but will be replaced by Sahin Civaci. Mott and Civaci are just 5% wins together over the past year. Steel obviously isn’t part of Mott’s “A Team,” but I understand him taking a shot here. Pass.

5. Ocelli (20-1)

Still a maiden, Ocelli has fallen apart like a soggy taco in his last three starts, beaten 17 3/4 lengths. Connect’s son is out of a winning sprinter. His half-sibling is also 0-4 on the track. Surprisingly, the Whit Beckman trainee’s speed ratings are pretty good, and they improved to 92 with a 100 late-pace rating in the Virginia Derby. Go figure. Still not enough for me to like him here or at Keeneland. Pass.

Though cross-entered in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), trainer Whitworth Beckman confirmed Wednesday that Ocelli will run in New York. Ocelli is still a maiden after five tries. The son of Connect was competitive against non-winners, going 3: 0-1-2 in maiden races. But Beckman has tried to kickstart the colt’s career by throwing him on the Triple Crown trail. He subsequently finished sixth in both the Sam F. Davis and the Virginia Derby. Beckman is removing the blinkers in hopes of an equipment change doing … something. He’s 0% wins with a 13% in-the-money clip with the blinkers off angle over the last year. Joseph Ramos gets the return call from Colonial Downs. Pass.

6. Minorinconvenience (30-1)

Minorinconvenience finished a good second in his first start of the season in the Gander Stakes, after a three-wide trip. Nobody was going to catch the loose-on-the-lead pacesetter, but Minorinconvenience gained ground in the one-mile event, a positive sign. Now the Amelia Green trainee takes on the big leagues. The Mendelssohn might find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range. His sire has an average 13%, winners at the distance, and his damsire Mission Impazible won the 2010 Louisiana Derby. Mendelssohn’s son is out of a winning turf sprinter. His dam’s half-brother is a restricted-stakes-winning turf sprinter. Pass.

Trained by Amelia Green, Minorinconvenience has raced exclusively in New York-bred company, compiling a 4: 2-1-0 record. His only off-the-board finish came on turf in his debut. He then broke his maiden at second asking, skipping off to a 10 1/2-length victory in the mud at Saratoga. He then won the Funny Cide Stakes by four lengths and was most recently second, beaten by 5 3/4 lengths, in the Gander Stakes off a six-month layoff. Minorinconvenience did bobble at the start of the Gander, and it was his first attempt around two turns. Green is 24% wins with a 59% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff over the last five years, but she is 0% across the board in graded stakes over that same period. Jaime Rodriguez picks up the mount for the first time. Long-shot exotics.

7. Albus (12-1)

Albus is coming along the right way. He didn’t show much as a 2-year-old, but he matured to win his 3-year-old debut, galloping home by 6 3/4 lengths. Albus may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range. So far, Yaupon’s offspring are distance-challenged, with one winner from six starters at 1 1/16 miles and none beyond that. Albus is a half-brother to Song of Spring, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. His dam Adream (Bernardini), is a half-sister to Grade 1 winning sprinter Dream Rush, who bore 3 black-type earners, including Grade 1 heroine Dreaming of Julia, who, in turn, bore two-time champ Malathaat.  Albus scratched from the Fountain of Youth and finds a less challenging herd here. Exotics.

Trained by Riley Mott, Albus scratched from last weekend’s Florida Derby (G1) in favor of this spot. He earned his first victory in his third start after finishing fourth at Keeneland and third at Churchill Downs. The victory came with a drop in class and a trip to Tampa Bay Downs, and Albus won the 1 mile, 40 yard race by 6 3/4 lengths. The colt’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, culminating with an 87 last out. Confessional, the winner of Albus’s debut race, most recently was third in the Virginia Derby after a disappointing seventh in the Sam F. Davis. Liberty National, the winner of Albus’s second race, was second in the Gun Runner next out and most recently fifth in the Southwest (G3). Regular rider Jaime Torres has the mount. Pass.

8. Courting (8-1)

Courting finished a disappointing sixth in the Risen Star (G2) in his first start of the season. He has a classic-distance pedigree. Curlin’s son is out of the multiple Grade 1 heroine Cavorting, and he is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Clairiere, multiple graded-placed Judge Miller and half to stakes winner La Crete. As an interesting note, although Courting is a chestnut and big sis Clairiere a bay, they have similar facial markings. In mid-March, Todd Pletcher gave Courting a pair of five-furlong breezes with decent gallop outs, so Courting should be fit for the Wood. So far, this $5 million Keeneland yearling purchase isn’t living up to his pedigree or price tag, but he’s bred to improve with maturity. Exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Courting had the misfortune to run into former Derby favorite Paladin in his last two starts. Courting closed his juvenile season with a fourth-place finish in the Remsen (G2), seven lengths behind winner Paladin. Sam F. Davis and Arkansas Derby winner Renegade also exited that race. Courting then kicked off 2026 with a sixth-place finish in the Risen Star, beaten by 11 lengths by Paladin. Pletcher takes the blinkers off the son of Curlin and is 22% wins with a 78% in-the-money clip with that angle over the last year, according to Race Lens. Kendrich Carmouche replaces regular jockey John Velazquez, who will ride Class President for Pletcher in the Blue Grass instead. Exotics.

9. Bravaro (8-1)

Bravaro returns to the scene of his last victory after tangling with heavyweights in the Holy Bull (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2). He didn’t embarrass himself in his last start, checking in fourth after being bumped and steadied at the start, taking him out of his preferred pace-pressing running style.  Bravaro may handle 1 1/8 miles. Although his sire has an average 13% winners at the distance, there’s stamina in his distaff line. His damsire was a sprinter with a middle-distance pedigree, and Bravaro’s second through fourth dams all won at classic distances. Upstart’s son is the first foal out of the unraced Opera Star (by Tamarkuz). She is half to a pair of stakes-winning turf sprinter-milers. Bravaro paddles or “wings” his right foreleg. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee loves Aqueduct and faces a softer field. Contender.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Bravaro won his first two while racing against New York-breds. He then hit the Triple Crown trail in January, running a distant second to Nearly in the Holy Bull and fourth, beaten by 11 lengths, in the Fountain of Youth. Nearly just returned in the Florida Derby, where he was fourth, beaten by just 3 1/4 lengths, behind Commandment. The Fountain of Youth and the Tampa Bay races have held their form, so Bravaro has kept solid company. Joseph will outfit the colt with a set of blinkers and is 3% wins with a 47% in-the-money clip with first-time blinkers and 5% wins with a 46% in-the-money clip with the blinkers on angle. Edwin Gonzalez takes over from Tyler Gaffalione, who will be riding Creole Chrome in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Contender.

10. Red Zone Runner (30-1)

Red Zone Runner improved immensely in his first start for new trainer, Hugo Padilla, running a poor herd of lesser runners off their feet in the City of Brotherly Love Stakes by 15 1/2 lengths, getting 1 1/16 miles in 1:46.67 with a 6.94 final furlong over a sloppy Parx track. He earned a career-best 96 speed rating. Red Zone Runner has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles. His sire has 14% winners at the distance, and his distaff line includes Petitionville, Seattle Slew and Native Charger, all winners at 1 1/8 miles and farther. Class in this family skips to the third generation and includes Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Mighty Adversary. It’s a long way from Parx to Aqueduct, and Red Zone Runner would need to run the race of his life to best this group. Pass.

Now trained by Hugo Padilla, Red Zone Runner kicked off his career against Pennsylvania-breds, winning by a neck going 5 1/2 furlongs. Aside from his career-best race in the City of Brotherly Love, Red Zone Runner has faced open company two other times, finishing second in an allowance race, beaten by 1 3/4 lengths, and third in the Heft Stakes, beaten by two lengths. Padilla has never won a graded stakes and is taking the same route with Red Zone Runner as he did with Lonesome Boy in 2024. Ultimately, Lonesome Boy was fourth in the 2024 Wood Memorial and ninth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Considering the big jump forward he made last out, Red Zone Runner is primed for a bounce. Mychel Sanchez has the return call from Parx. Pass.

11. Ottinho

Scratched in favor of Blue Grass. 

12. Buetane (8-1)

Buetane has more frequent-flyer miles than probably any other 3-year-old, yet he still has only one maiden win to his credit in five starts. He keeps trying, finishing second in the Hopeful (G1) and San Vicente (G2), then third in the Southwest (G3) and fourth in the Virginia Derby. The Bob Baffert trainee has some of the best speed figures in the field. Buetane has a miler-middle distance pedigree. Tiz the Law’s son is half to stakes-winning sprinter Let My People Go, plus Grade 3-placed Der Lu and stakes placed Smartly Agree, dam of multiple stakes-placed Towhead. Their dam is half to Grade 1 winners Creative Cause and Vexatiou and Grade 3 winner Destin, who was second in the 2016 Belmont. The second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Dream of Summer. Has anyone else noticed that the farther Buetane goes, the more ground he loses? Pass.

Good gravy, Buetane has done some traveling! The Bob Baffert trainee has raced at five tracks in as many starts, and while the colt always picks up a check, his only win came in his debut. For me, Buetane is this year’s version of Madaket Road. You can’t leave him off your ticket, but play for the win at your own risk. Martin Garcia picks up the mount as Baffert’s usual riders are engaged elsewhere. Use underneath.

13. Iron Honor (5-2)

I liked the way Iron Honor contested the early pace from between horses in the Gotham Stakes then won the battle of wills in the stretch with the more experienced Crown the Buckeye. The Chad Brown trainee completed a mile in 1:37.94 with a 13.69 final furlong. Nyquist’s son should handle 1 1/8 miles. Iron Honor is the first foal out of the winning miler Orencia (by Blame). Her half-sister is a stakes-winning sprinter. The third generation is filled with distance runners, including the third dam Pratella, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles, and Angliana, multiple stakes-placed at 1 1/4 miles and farther. Iron Honor will be tested by the outside post and speed to his inside, but I like him. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Iron Honor is undefeated in two career starts. Iron Honor debuted in December, and three of his beaten rivals were next-out winners, although one dropped to the claiming ranks. A fourth opponent broke his maiden two starts later. None from the Gotham have made subsequent starts, so who knows how the New York forms will hold. The son of Nyquist received a 99 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut and a 95 for the Gotham. There’s no doubt the colt loves Aqueduct, but the far outside post could be problematic. However, if they can make a good trip, Iron Honor has a shot. Regular rider Manny Franco has the mount. Exotics.