Head to Head: Split decision on a murky Pocahontas field

Laaurie

Ashley

1. Starlit Sky (9-2)

Still a maiden after a trio of starts, Starlit Sky gets to play on fast dirt for the first time in her career. She was no factor over a sloppy track in her debut and was outclassed by the Saratoga maiden contingent. The George Weaver trainee found softer company on Monmouth’s turf and finished a competitive third. By Connect, sire of 2021 Pocahontas winer Hidden Connection, Starlit Sky is a half to restricted-stakes-winning dirt miler Kinetic Sky. Two other half-siblings have won as dirt milers. Their dam is multiple stakes-placed sprinter Sky America, a full sister to stakes winner and Grade 1-placed Third Dawn. Starlit Sky may improve over fast dirt. In a breeze over Saratoga’s training track, she rated behind a workmate before pulling clear with a smooth gait. This filly likely wound up on the lawn early because she wants distance, so consider that. If you’re spreading money around, she’s worth a look for the lower exotics. 

Trained by George Weaver, Starlit Sky retains her maiden status despite having faced the starter three times. Three rivals from her debut race have become winners, two on turf and one with a sharp class drop. Only one filly from the Saratoga maiden race has become a winner, and none from Starlit Sky’s most recent race, contested Aug. 15, hit the board in their next start. Weaver is excellent at moving runners from turf to dirt, with a 30% win clip and a 63% in-the-money rate over the last year. I agree with Laurie that this filly could improve while getting a first shot at a fast track. Tyler Gaffalione, who will be the filly’s fourth jockey in as many starts, has the call. Exotics.

2. Miss Complicated (7-2)

Miss Complicated showed speed and faded in her Churchill debut but stumbled coming out of the gate in her second start, which left her at the back of the field. She wanted to run but was steadied, and Julien Leparoux asked her to rate until the five-sixteenths pole, where she was cut loose. Miss Complicated circled seven wide and closed for second place behind Our Two Girls while running out of real estate. The Ian Wilkes trainee earned a 75 Brisnet Speed Rating, and her 94 late-pace figure is the highest in the Pocahontas. By second-crop sire Complexity, Miss Complicated is out of the unraced Creative Cause mare Cause for Praise. The dam’s half-brother Cape Hope is a stakes-winning turf miler, and another half-brother, Shin Forever, is a multiple stakes-placed sprinter on turf and dirt in Japan. Third dam Class Above was a multiple stakes winner and the dam of multiple graded placed Sueno. Miss Complicated had a second-to-last bullet five-furlong work in 59.80. Contender.

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Miss Complicated is also still a maiden. Wickedwithbourbon, who was sixth in Miss Complicated’s debut race, is the only winner to so far come out of that race, but it took a drop into the claiming ranks for her to find the winner’s circle. Two from her second race finished second in their next start. Miss Complicated’s Brisnet Speed Rating dropped from 81 to a 75. Wilkes is winless with a 21% in-the-money rate with runners stretching from a sprint to a route and 6% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip with 2-year-olds. Wilkes is also 0% across the board with 2-year-olds in graded stakes. Regular jockey Julien Leparoux has the call. Pass.

3. Taken by the Wind (5-1)

Taken by the Wind raced against maiden claimers at Saratoga but wasn’t entered for a tag. She won on talent alone while wandering through the stretch like she was on the last stages of a pub crawl, completing seven furlongs in 1:25.37 with a glacial 13.91-second final furlong. Despite the slow time, the Ken McPeek trainee earned an 83 Brisnet rating and 81 late-pace figure. By the fifth leading first-crop sire Rock Your World, Taken by the Wind is a half to stakes-placed sprinter Running Memories. The class skips to the third generation of the distaff line and includes multiple Grade 1-winning heroine Society Selection. Taken by the Wind is the weaker of the McPeek fillies, and although she’s bred for the distance, she’ll need to step up her game. Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Taken by the Wind was slated to debut on turf. That race ended up being run on the fast main track, and, despite meandering in the stretch, Taken by the Wind passed the pace setter and pulled away to win by three lengths. Only the last-place finisher has raced since then, and she finished off the board again. Despite the pedestrian final time that Laurie addressed, the 83 Brisnet Speed Rating she received is the best in the field. Additionally, Taken by the Wind gets a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. I actually rather like this filly. Contender.

4. Joke Maker (12-1)

Joke Maker closed in both sprint starts and should enjoy the extra distance. Practical Joke’s daughter is half to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Normandy Hero, and they are out of Swan of the Nile, a daughter of Pioneerof the Nile. The second generation of the distaff line includes 2021 Schuylerville heroine Pretty Birdie. Champion 3-year-old filly Bird Town and Belmont winner Birdstone are distant relatives. Joke Maker’s speed rating improved in her second start, and her 83 late pace figure could put her in the exotics.

Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, Joke Maker finished second on debut as the favorite in a five-furlong event at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She then stepped up in class and finished third in a six-furlong race at Ellis Park. The winner of Joke Maker’s debut race Hot Crazy Matrix ran third in the Prairie Meadows Debutante next out. The other three fillies in the top four of Joke Maker’s second race held their form, with the winner also triumphing next out and the second- and fourth-place finishers hitting the board. This filly’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved, but Brisset is only 8% wins with a 35% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. But he is also 0% wins with a 36% in-the-money clip in juvenile graded stakes. Luan Machado gets the return call. Exotics.

5. Our Two Girls (6-1)

Our Two Girls broke outward at the start of her debut and raced between horses in early rush-hour traffic. She made her way to the rail to tailgate the pacesetters after the first quarter. Our Two Girls cut the corner athletically and won geared down under a hand ride. Ken McPeek’s charge traveled six furlongs in 1:12.08, with a mediocre 13 final furlong, but her 89 late-pace figure is the field’s second-highest. By multiple Group 1-winning turf sprinter Caravaggio, Our Two Girls is the first foal out of the unraced Curlin mare Candy Apple Red, a half-sister to Good Samaritan, a multiple graded winner over dirt and turf. In her second-to-last breeze, a four-furlong move in 49.0, Our Two Girls was paired with Prowess, who was third in the Ellis Park Debutante. Our Two Girls moved easily over the chewed-up track and opened up without being asked, while Prowess was pushed aggressively to keep up. Contender. 

Also from the McPeek barn, Our Two Girls debuted a winner Aug. 2 at Ellis Park in a six-furlong event. A couple of the also-rans from that race hit the board next out. McPeek has his go-to jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. riding Our Two Girls, which indicates to me that this is the supposed better filly of his in this race. Her 79 Brisnet is close to her stablemate’s and thus on par with the best in the field. Contender.

6. Dazzling Dame (2-1)

Dazzling Dame took them gate to wire in Monmouth Park’s Sorority Stakes, winning by two lengths. But the victory wasn’t very impressive. She could have rated behind the speed, and Jevian Toledo tried rating her for a few strides, but Dazzling Dame shook her head and forged to the front. She relaxed and set slow fractions, but was leg weary in the stretch. The Brittany Russell trainee completed the mile in 1:40.83 with a slow final furlong of 13.53. Girvin’s daughter is the first black-type earner out of the multiple stakes-placed sprinter Awesome Drama. The second generation includes multiple stakes-placed sprinter Lauren C. Dazzling Dame’s 84 late-pace figure is the third highest in the Pocahontas. I’m not confident that she will rate or lull them to sleep on the front end. Exotics.

Trained by Brittany Russell, Dazzling Dame is undefeated in two career starts and went to post as the favorite in both races. But she debuted in Maryland-bred company and faced only three in that race. The runner-up from that race became a winner and the other two hit the board next out. Dazzling Move then won the mile Sorority Stakes at Monmouth in her second start. In the last five years, Russell is 10% wins with a 29% in-the-money rated in graded stakes but is 0% across the board in 2-year-old graded stakes. Dazzling Dame’s Brisnet Speed Rating dropped from a 79 on debut to a 77 in the Sorority Stakes. Luis Saez takes over from Jevian Toledo. Exotics.

7. Embrace the Moment (5-1)

Embrace the Moment took them gate to wire in her Delaware debut. She turned back a couple of rivals and won by a measured 1 3/4 length, kept to task but not under serious threat in the lane. Greg Compton’s charge completed six furlongs in 1:12.52, with a slowish 13.45 final furlong. By leading first-crop sire Yaupon, Embrace the Moment is a half to Carbone, second in this year’s one-mile Hot Springs Stakes. Their second dam, Richwoman, was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, including the Churchill Debutante (G3). Embrace the Moment has a steady string of five-furlong breezes at Delaware. Her 77 late-pace figure needs to improve, but Race Lens shows that Yaupon’s four second-time starters placed first through fourth. Exotics.

Trained by Greg Compton, Embrace the Moment debuted a winner at Delaware Park, winning a six-furlong event by 1 3/4 lengths. Because that race was run on Aug. 28, none from that field have made additional starts. Compton is 17% wins with a 49% in-the-money clip with runners coming off an 8- to 30-day layoff, but is 0% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years. Embrace the Moment’s 82 Brisnet Speed Rating is the second-best number in the field, but she definitely will step up in class here. Jaime Rodriguez has the return call. Contender.