Head to Head: Split decision on Pletcher entrants in Demoiselle

Laurie

Ashley

1. Jumping the Gun (6-1)

The queen of the Delaware 2-year-old sprint division, Jumping the Gun was handed her first loss in the one-mile White Clay Creek Stakes. Andrew Simoff’s charge was four wide the entire way. Although she made a brief challenge for the lead, Jumping the Gun wasn’t a match for her rival and settled 1 1/2 lengths back in second. Still, she earned an 88 Brisnet rating, and her 92 late-pace figure is the Demoiselle field’s highest. Gun Runner’s daughter is out of the stakes-winning miler Breaking Bread (Quality Road). There’s little class in the first three generations of the family. The dam is half to a stakes-placed runner, and the third dam is stakes winning sprinter. Jumping the Gun has four stamina-building works at five to six furlongs. Although she’s stepping up in company, Jumping the Gun has the pedigree and tactical speed to handle the distance. Exotics.

Trained by Andrew Simoff, Jumping the Gun won her first three races, including the Blue Hen Stakes and the Delaware-bred Small Wonder Stakes. She most recently was second to Dazzling Dame, who won the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth and was fourth in the Pocahontas (G3), in the White Clay Creek Stakes. Two from the White Clay Creek were next-out maiden winners, and her other three races have produced several stakes performers, too. Simoff has never won a graded stakes, and he last had a graded-stakes runner in March 2023. Regular rider Julio Hernandez, who has not won a graded stakes in the U.S. but has two graded wins in Puerto Rico, retains the mount. Pass.

2. Shilling (4-1)

Shilling dominated four rivals in the Tempted Stakes by four lengths over Believable. The Ken McPeek trainee took command early. Shilling was annoyed and had things under control, swishing her tail at her aggressive jockey. She completed a mile in 1:38.45 with a 13.39 final furlong. By second-crop sire Global Campaign, Shilling is half to I’m Freaky Fast, a multiple stakes-placed sprinter–miler. One half-sibling won at 1 1/8 miles in a $13,000 claiming event. Class skips to the third dam, Miss Fortunate, a multiple-stakes-winning router. Race Lens shows that four of Global Campaign’s offspring attempted 1 1/8 miles, and one placed third. Shilling’s Brisnet ratings have decreased in her last start, and she earned a tepid 84 late-pace figure. Her pedigree is iffy for 1 1/8 miles, and she may not have it her own way in the Demoiselle. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Shilling was fourth on debut but then won her next two outings, including the one-mile Tempted Stakes last out. Her debut race hasn’t produced anything of note, and her second race produced one next-out winner. Tempted fourth-place finisher Day to Day was second in the off-the-turf Wait a While Stakes at Gulfstream Park next out, and fifth-place finisher Spa Prospector previously had been third in the Adirondack (G3). Shilling’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have been up and down, and she received just a 79 for the Tempted. Regular jockey Christopher Elliot retains the mount. Exotics.

3. Zany (6-5)

Zany ships from Florida after besting maidens by 6 1/2 lengths. She set swift early fractions of 22.58, 45.72 and 1:10.65 before galloping home in 1:16.98 with a 6.33 final half-furlong under a hand ride. Todd Pletcher’s charge recorded an 88 Brisnet rating. Her 92 late-pace figure is the field’s second highest. American Pharoah’s daughter is out of Mo Green (Uncle Mo), a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Zany has a series of four-furlong breezes in the 48 to 50 range, typical pattern for the Pletcher barn. Although she’s bred for the distance, Zany is shipping, facing winners and adding distance, a tough task. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Zany just debuted on Nov. 2, and the second- and third-place finishers also hit the trifecta in their next starts. She looked good drawing off to win by 6 1/2 lengths after dueling on the lead. I’m not worried about the step up in company and shipping because Pletcher frequently ships into New York from Florida and wins during the winter. Zany also gets a jock upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. Contender.

4. Concurrently (3-1)

In her second start, Concurrently avoided rush-hour traffic by switching to the outside and making a swift move around the turn. Concurrently was shrugged off in her first attempt to engage her rival Believable but refused to settle, and she made another lunge near the wire in a thrilling finish. Unfortunately, she lost the photo to Believable. Concurrently got the job done next out, fighting in the early scramble for the lead. She dispatched her early rivals and held off a late charge. Concurrently knew she had the better of her rival, as her ears went to half-cocked strides from the wire and were up as she crossed, a sign of confidence. Also by American Pharoah, Concurrently is out of the Midnight Lute mare Dreamcall, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Dreamcall’s half-siblings include multiple stakes-winning turf router Gangbuster and Grade 3-placed sprinter Glorified, and another half-sister bore Grade 1-winning turf router Hunter O’Riley. The Chad Brown trainee’s speed ratings have improved in each start, and she can win from on or off the pace. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Concurrently improved when switching from turf to dirt. She was sixth on debut on the lawn but in her second start missed by a nose to Believable, who was second next out in the Tempted Stakes. She then won at third asking. Concurrently’s speed ratings have improved with each start, but her best number is an 82, so she’ll need to take another step forward. Brown told the New York Racing Association media team that he’s pleased with how the filly has developed and believes the 1 1/8-mile distance is exactly what Concurrently is looking for. Regular rider Flavien Prat retains the mount. Contender.

5. Ivy Girl (15-1)

Ivy Girl takes a swing at the big leagues after besting $40,000 maiden claimers. She was green, running in spots, and she slowed in the stretch, 3 1/2 lengths behind the dueling pacesetters. When she saw rivals in front, she picked up the pace to win by 3 1/4 lengths. The Amelia Green trainee completed a mile in 1:37.97, with a glacial 13.40-second final furlong. She earned a 70 speed rating with an average 84 late pace figure. By second-leading first-crop sire Maxfield, Ivy Girl is out of the stakes-placed miler Critikal Reason (Aptitude). Ivy Girl’s half-sister Baan is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter who is Grade 1-placed at 1 1/16 miles. Their half-brother Virtual Machine is a Grade 3-placed miler. Critikal Reason is half to Kentucky Oaks heroine Lemons Forever, who bore 2017 champion older female Forever Unbridled and Grade 1 heroine Unbridled Forever. Ivy Girl has a very nice pedigree, and I’m surprised that she started out at the $40,000 maiden level, considering her connections bought her for $100,000 at the Keeneland September sale. Although her final furlong time wasn’t spectacular, her final time for a mile is quicker than her rivals. Live long shot.

Trained by Amelia Green, Ivy Girl was not in the same ZIP code as the top two finishers in her debut in claiming company at Parx. That race produced one other next-out winner at an even lower level. Ivy Girl won at second asking at Aqueduct, also at the claiming level, and none from that race have made subsequent starts. Green is still a fairly new trainer. She hasn’t had a graded-stakes winner yet, but she saddled a pair of stakes winners this year that won at odds of 11-1 or less. Ivy Girl’s Brisnet Speed Rating took a massive jump forward from 54 to 79, setting her up for a potential bounce, especially as she takes a big step up in class. Manny Franco has the return call. Pass.

6. Believable (5-1)

After having things her own way on the lead in her debut, Believable had a very wide trip in the Tempted Stakes. She broke slowly and was four wide the entire time, but in a good rhythm. She made steady progress while lugging in through the stretch but hesitated to pass a rival to her inside, so she’ll get a shiny new set of blinkers. Curlin’s daughter is a full sister to 2018 Jim Dandy (G2) hero Tenfold, who won the Pimlico Special (G3) a year later. He also placed in the Preakness and Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). Their third dam is 1995 champion turf mare, Possibly Perfect. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s speed rating decreased in her second start, but she owns a pair of 81 late-pace figures. Exotics.

Also from the Pletcher barn, Believable bested Concurrently by a nose in her debut and returned to run second, four lengths behind winner Shilling, in the Tempted Stakes. Pletcher adds blinkers in the hopes of sharpening her up and perhaps getting her out of the gate a bit quicker. He’s 13% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with runners with first-time blinkers and 16% wins with a 49% in-the-money rate with blinkers on overall in the last year. Believable’s Brisnet Speed Rating did drop from an 82 to a 74, but I believe the blinkers will help. John Velazquez replaces Kendrick Carmouche. Contender.