Head to Head: Speed vs. class in Holy Bull

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Incredibolt (3-1)

Trained by Riley Mott, Incredibolt hasn’t been seen since winning the Street Sense (G3) at the end of October. Runner-up Universe was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and third-place finisher Very Connected checked in fourth. Carson Street, the runner-up of Incredibolt’s maiden breaking race, since has run third in the Lecomte (G3), beaten by just a length. Mott has 25% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. He also has 14% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip with runners coming off a 2-6 month layoff. Regular rider Jaime Torres has the mount. Contender.

Incredibolt showed versatility and professionalism in his last two starts. He tailgated the pace while on the rail in his second start, then broke a step slow in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and settled on the outside at the back of the pack through a moderately slow pace. The Riley Mott trainee circled the field and passed horses without hesitation while keeping a straight path, reminiscent of a horse Riley’s dad trained, Sovereignty. Incredibolt completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.67 with a 6.35 final half-furlong. Bolt d’Oro’s son is half to the multiple graded-placed sprinter Fire On Time. Their dam Sapphire Spitfire (by Awesome Again) is half to Americanus, stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles. Class in the third generation includes Grade 3 winner Caribbean Caper and Grade 1-placed Juvenile Magna Light. Incredibolt’s Brisnet ratings improved in each start, and he should take another step forward as a bigger, stronger 3-year-old. He drilled five furlongs in 1:02.30 in company with the unraced Tapit colt Whine Country on Jan. 14. Incredibolt settled off that one’s flank early, then surged ahead near the wire without being pushed, while Whine Country was asked. Incredibolt galloped out in front. He’s had a pair of stamina works and gets to take the short way around. Contender. 

2.  Roger That Dana (20-1)

Trained by Luis Ramirez, Roger That Dana has made every career start at Gulfstream so far. The son of Awesome Slew was a debut winner against Florida-breds. He was then third in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes to Strategic Risk, who won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn next out. In his first start against open company, Roger That Dana finished a distant second to Commandment in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Ramirez has sent out only one graded runner in the last five years, and that runner finished seventh on the turf at Kentucky Downs. Renzo Rojas, who gets the return call from the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, only began riding in 2024, and this will be his first graded-stakes race. Pass.

Roger That Dana changed his pacesetting tactics in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. He battled while in tight between horses around the far turn, then passed tired horses in the stretch while running on his wrong lead and drifting. He wasn’t going to catch Commandment but was a clear second best, which was a success as far as switching running styles. Awesome Slew’s son is half to the stakes-placed sprinters Apocalypso and Mon Petit Chou. Their dam, Take Me to Zuber is by Toccet, like Awesome Slew, is a son of Awesome Again. She is a stakes-placed sprinter. The second and third generations contain restricted and listed black-type-winning sprinters. The Luis Ramirez trainee is still learning and improved his Brisnet rating to 88. He’ll need further improvement to be a factor. Pass.    

3.  Project Ace (15-1)

Trained by Dale Romans, Project Ace finally got his picture taken in his third start. He was third on debut, closing from last to get up for that position while going six furlongs. Romans stretched him out to 1 1/16 miles for his second start, and the son of War of Will closed to miss the win by a nose in a head-bobbing finish. The third time was the charm as Project Ace again went last to first to win by a head. Nothing has come out of any of those three races, and Romans has just 1% wins with a 23% in-the-money finish in graded stakes over the last five years. Regular rider Corey Lanerie has the call. Long-shot exotics.

There’s no denying Project Ace’s tenacity. He lost the photo in his second start after a brave late run up the rail. He made the same move in his last start up the rail and nailed his maiden victory by a head. The Dale Romans trainee completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.28 with a 6.96 final half-furlong. By second-crop sire War of Will, Project Ace is half to Mr. Money, a multiple Grade 3 winner from a mile to 1 1/8 miles, and to stakes-placed juvenile Tizplenty. Their dam is half to the multiple graded-placed turf router Sister O’Toole and stakes-winning turf miler Lady O’Toole. Multiple Grade 1 winners Well Armed, Cyberknife and Patch Adams are part of the third generation. Project Ace’s Brisnet ratings have improved with each outing, although still low. This one-run closer faces a speed bias and needs to improve. Pass. 

4.  Global Aviator (12-1)

Trained by Rohan Crichton, Global Aviator debuted a winner over the Gulfstream main track. The neck margin of victory belies how well the colt actually ran. He broke slowly and spotted the field about eight to 10 lengths. Joe Bravo kept Global Aviator wide down the backstretch and into the far turn, but when he pushed the “go” button as they entered the turn, the colt exploded to the lead. Treptow didn’t back down easily, though, and the two battled to the wire, where Global Aviator found a final gear despite the long, sustained drive. Crichton has 6% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. He has just 5% wins with a 21% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Joe Bravo has the return call. Long-shot exotics.

Global Aviator broke last of all in his debut then flew by the field around the far turn. He was a little leg weary but still game, and he won the challenge late. The Rohan Crichton trainee stopped the clock at 1:10.17 for six furlongs, with a very sharp 12.39 final furlong, which earned him a 93 Brisnet rating and 97 late-pace figure. Global Campaign’s son is the second foal out of Frisco Girl (by Quality Road). The dam is half to multiple stakes winning sprinter Wine Police, and the second dam is multiple stakes winning sprinter Deputy Cures The Blues. Global Aviator owns a trio of quick breezes, including a second-to-last five-furlong move in 59.47, second-best of the day. He flashed a quick four furlongs on Jan. 3 in company with two older stablemates. Global Aviator settled behind then passed both while not being asked and opened up past the wire. He showed the same acceleration as in his debut. Long-shot exotics. 

5.  Cannoneer (2-1)

Trained by Brad Cox, Cannoneer was third on debut at Churchill Downs. He dueled on the lead despite getting off a step slow but weakened to finish three lengths behind winner Comport, who since has run second in the Bashford Manor and Iroquois (G3) and won the Ellis Park Juvenile. In his second start, Cannoneer again went straight to the lead and took the field gate to wire, drawing off to win the seven-furlong event by 7 1/4 lengths. He’ll have to stretch that speed out again, but Cox has 37% wins with a 57% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return call. Contender.

Cannoneer lived up to his pedigree and $1.7 million price tag while winning his second start by 7 1/4 lengths. The Brad Cox trainee completed seven furlongs in a quick 1:21.63 with a 12.43 final furlong. His 100 Brisnet rating is the Holy Bull field’s highest. Into Mischief’s son is half to Grade 1 winner Girvin, Grade 3 winner and classic-placed Midnight Bourbon, and Grade 3 winner Cocked and Loaded. The unraced dam’s full sister bore Grade 1-winning sprinter Brightwork. Cannoneer has a trio of five-furlong moves at Payson Park. He has excellent leg extension and a high cruising speed. Contender.

6.  Buetane

SCRATCHED as his flight to Florida was canceled because of the winter storm.

What storm? I live in Florida.

7.  Nearly (9-5)

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nearly was sixth and last on debut at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. He chased the early pace but shied-steadied at the quarter pole before weakening to cross the wire 13 lengths behind the winner. Winner Epic Summer just finished fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, his second career start. Pletcher then shipped Nearly south to Gulfstream, where he’s won both starts. He demolished a Florida-bred field by 9 1/4 lengths before moving back to open company to win an optional claimer by five lengths. There wasn’t anything remarkable about either of those fields, but Nearly sure looked good while beating them. He also changed his run style to be closer to the early pace. This will be the colt’s first attempt around two turns, and Pletcher has 19% wins with a 44% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. John Velazquez, who rode the colt in his prior two Gulfstream starts, has the call. Exotics.

Nearly had an eye-catching 9 1/4 length romp in his second start last year, against state-breds, completing his final furlong in 12.23 under an aggressive hand ride. Nearly was knocked sideways and lost his footing after the break when Confessional broke outward. That left Nearly about four lengths behind. The Todd Pletcher trainee got his revenge after eyeballing Confessional in the stretch and drawing clear by five lengths, completing seven furlongs in 1:22.88 with a 12.32 final furlong. His Brisnet ratings climbed with each start, and his 100 late-pace rating is the field’s highest. Not This Time’s son is the second foal out of Ib Prospecting (by Mindshaft). The dam is half to multiple stakes-winning miler, Frolic’s Revenge. The second and third dams, Stormy Frolic, Lindsay Frolic and Cherokee Frolic, are all multiple stakes winners and black-type producers. Nearly owns several four-furlong works, including a pre-race 48.59 bullet move. Contender. 

8.  Bravaro (8-1)

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Bravaro is undefeated in two starts, both restricted to New York-breds. A few from his debut race are now stakes-placed against New York-breds, and the Sleepy Hollow Stakes produced two next-out winners. Bravaro won the Sleepy Hollow by 2 1/2 lengths but likely could have won by more if he hadn’t been bottled up and forced to go five wide. Tyler Gaffalione replaces regular rider Dylan Davis, who is recovering from injuries sustained in a spill at Aqueduct in November. Exotics.

After a pair of victories against New York state-breds, Bravaro is ready for a shot at the big time. He captured the one-mile Sleepy Hollow Stakes in his last start despite trouble in 1:35.68, with a 12.73 final furlong. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee earned a modest two-point increase in his Brisnet rating to 89, but his late-pace figure decreased nine points. A son of 2015 Holy Bull winner Upstart, Bravaro is the first foal out of the unraced Opera Star (by Tamarkuz). She is half to a pair of stakes-winning turf sprinter-milers. Bravaro played the rabbit for stablemate Skippylongstocking on Jan. 9, and wasn’t disgraced, completing five furlongs in 1:03. But Bravaro paddles or “wings” his right foreleg. Exotics.

9.  Game for It

Scratched in favor of the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs.

What Ashley said.