Head to Head: Conflicting views of Breeders' Cup Distaff

Laurie

Ashley

1. Nitrogen (4-1)

Nitrogen hasn’t finished off the board in 11 starts, mostly on the turf. But she’s been on a win-lose streak since June. The Mark Casse trainee’s Brisnet numbers are better on dirt, a 104 and 103, respectively. She captured the Alabama (G1) by 1 1/2 half lengths and finished a stubborn second, beaten a head by Gin Gin, while drifting out in the Spinster (G1). Nitrogen has pressed or set the pace in both dirt starts and is the only one in the Distaff with two back-to-back triple-digit figures. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, Nitrogen is 3: 2-1-0 on dirt and missed being undefeated over this surface by just a head. The rail is currently winning at a 20% rate. Nitrogen can effectively either set the pace or sit just behind the leaders. As Laurie pointed out, she also has back-to-back triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings. Plus the 104 she received in the Spinster is the highest speed figure at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Distaff. Regular rider Jose Ortiz has the mount. Contender.

2. Sarawak Rim (12-1)

Sarawak Rim is one of two mystery horses in the Distaff and earned her spot with a measured one-length victory in the 1 1/4-mile Criadores (G1) in Argentina, where she settled about four lengths off the pace on the outside before mowing down the pacesetters. She ran similarly in other contests. Trainer Ignacio Correas brought Blue Prize from Argentina, but she had multiple starts, including a fourth-place finish in the 2018 Distaff before winning the following year. Sarawak Rim’s sole loss in her homeland was a well-beaten second over heavy ground in March. Correas has been patient with Sarawak Rim and gave her time to adjust to the U.S., breezing at Keeneland in solo moves since August. Butshe had a work with allowance winner, Make the Boys Wink, in September in an easy 1:01.40 for five panels. Deepening the mystery, she gets first-time blinkers and has been breezing in them for the last few months. Wiseguy long shot.

Trained by Ignacio Correas, Sarawak Rim previously was in the care of Juan Saldivia in her home country of Argentina. Although we don’t have Brisnet Speed Ratings for the filly, she did receive a 110 Equibase speed figure when winning the Criadores. By the stats, Sarawak Rim appears to have the deck stacked against her. Correas is 0% wins with a 75% in-the-money clip with first-time blinkers, 5% wins with a 9% in-the-money rate with runners off a 6-month-plus layoff, and 12% wins with a 24% in-the-money rate with runners making their first start after switching to his barn in the last year. But Correas is 27% wins with a 33% in-the-money clip with runners shipping to the U.S. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount. I agree with Laurie on the Wiseguy long-shot assessment.

3. Clicquot (10-1)

Clicquot won her last four starts, including a stubborn neck victory over Dry Powder in the Cotillion (G1). She has met each challenge and faces her toughest task while adding distance. Quality Road’s daughter is out of Royal Obsession (Tapit), who placed in the Gazelle (G2) at 1 1/8 miles. Additionally, she has closed in her last two starts, so the distance shouldn’t be a concern. The Brendan Walsh trainee earned a career-high 98 Brisnet rating, and her 96 late-pace figure is positive. Contender.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, it is difficult to find fault with Clicquot since she broke her maiden at second asking. She beat a trio of Grade 1 winners in Scottish Lassie, La Cara and Good Cheer in the Cotillion, but the first two tend to be inconsistent and Good Cheer fell off form after the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Walsh has one previous Breeders’ Cup win with Worldly in the 2013 Marathon. Flavien Prat takes over from Irad Ortiz Jr., who rides Sarawak Rim. Pass.

4. Scylla (15-1)

Scylla hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since June 2024 but played the bridesmaid in multiple Grade 1 sprints. Surprisingly, Bill Mott didn't stretch her out until the Spinster this year, even though she’s a full sister to Tacitus and Batten Down, both classic-distance winners. Her dam Close Hatches, also conditioned by Mott, was second in the 2013 Distaff. Scylla finished a close third in the Spinster but wasn’t close to passing Gin Gin or Nitrogen. She had to alter paths because of Nitrogen drifting. It was an excellent effort in her first two-turn race since last August, and she earned a 102 rating. Mott gave her a bullet four-furlong move in 46.60 at Del Mar. Long-shot exotics.

Trained by Bill Mott, Scylla has never been worse than fourth in her career. She’s faced some of the best fillies and mares in racing while sprinting and routing. She’s 2: 0-1-0 at Del Mar, but she missed the victory in last year’s Filly & Mare Sprint by just a length when finishing fourth. Scylla is also 2: 1-0-1 at 1 1/8 miles. She’s posted back-to-back triple-digit speed ratings in her last two starts, including a 102 in the Spinster. She also earned triple-digit speed figures in both previous starts at Del Mar. Junior Alvarado gets the return call from the Keeneland race. Live long shot.

5. Scottish Lassie (12-1)

Will be scratched.

6. Alice Verite (20-1)

Alice Verite returns for another go in the Distaff. She shored up the superfecta last year, finishing fourth. But she hasn’t hit the board this year despite a pair of close finishes. Pass.

Trained by Kazuya Nakatake, Alice Verite has raced primarily on turf. But as Laurie pointed out, she did get up for fourth in last year’s Distaff. Though she entered off a 10th-place finish in the Niigata Kinen (G3) last year, she did have better overall form (6: 3-2-0 in 2024). She has very much lost a couple steps this year, going 4: 0-0-0. Kyle Frey has the mount. Pass.

7. Gin Gin (12-1)

Gin Gin lit up the tote in two starts since joining Brendan Walsh’s barn in April. She does her best work on the front end and stubbornly held on to beat Nitrogen in the Spinster, earning a career-best 104 rating. It was her first start since June, and she hasn’t put together back-to-back wins in her career. But she hasn’t placed worse than fourth for Walsh. Lower exotics.

Also from the Walsh barn, Gin Gin is a filly who gives me fits. She’s always been a good filly, but she’s inconsistent. She has improved since joining Walsh’s barn, however, including notching her first career Grade 1 victory in the Spinster. She does her best work on the lead, but she’s not going to have an easy time getting that preferred spot. I’m on the fence about using her, but if I write her off completely, she’ll light up the tote board … again. Luis Saez has the return call from the Spinster. Exotics.

8. Seismic Beauty (9-5)

Seismic Beauty won her last three by a combined 16 1/2 lengths, including the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), where she recorded a career-best 107 rating while stopping the clock at 142.33 with a 6.81 final half-furlong. The Baffert trainee has been beating up on lesser and faces a class test against the East Coast invaders. Seismic Beauty is a need-the-lead type and faces other speed types. Baffert is missing a Distaff trophy despite 10 attempts. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Seismic Beauty owns the best speed rating in the field with the 107 she received for the Clement L. Hirsch. She was assigned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form for that race, the second-best Beyer for a main-track race longer than a mile this year. Only Sovereignty’s 115 in the Travers (G1) is higher. Like many Baffert trainees, Seismic Beauty has a high cruising speed. She does face a class test but is a neck away from being undefeated at Del Mar. I wasn’t a fan of the decision to train Seismic Beauty up to the Distaff after the Clement L. Hirsch, but Baffert is 27% wins with a 68% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a 2-6 month layoff. Regular rider J.J. Hernandez has the call. Contender.

9. Majestic Oops (30-1)

Majestic Oops won the listed Lady’s Secret in June at Monmouth, but her speed figures have decreased since then. She finished fourth in the Delaware Handicap (G3), beaten 11 1/2 lengths. Pass.

Trained by Dan Ward, Majestic Oops has a whopping 32 starts under her girth but just seven wins. As a former claimer, she’s in the best form of her career. Three of her victories came earlier this year, including two stakes wins. She’s 3: 0-1-1 in graded stakes but had no answer for a couple who she will face here. Ward has saddled only two Grade 1 starters in the last five years and is 0-0-1. Umberto Rispoli picks up the mount from Sonny Leon. Pass.

10. Gun Song (30-1)

Gun Song found the winners circle in the Beldame (G2) for the first time in a year, earning a career-best 101 rating. Although she’s game, Gun Song has been beaten by lesser types than she faces here. Pass.

Trained by Mark Hennig, Gun Song is a filly anyone would be proud to own. She’s 16: 5-5-2 in her career and enters off a career best effort in the Beldame (G2). She only faced three in the Beldame, though, and none of them are of the caliber she will face here. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from regular rider John Velazquez, who will ride Dorth Vader instead. Pass.

11. Dry Powder (20-1)

Never out of the money in her six lifetime starts, Dry Powder missed by a neck to a determined Clicquot in the Cotillion. Dry Powder’s speed ratings aren’t as lofty as some, but she’s game. Chad Sumers gave her a five-furlong bullet in 1:01 at Del Mar, and Dry Powder looked good. She was relaxed during the work but responded when pushed past the wire. Despite the positive signs, Dry Powder hasn’t won beyond 1 mile 70 yards. Pass.

Trained by Chad Summers, Dry Powder nearly had a breakthrough win in the Cotillion but came up a neck short when Clicquot ran her down. In her other grade one attempt, Dry Powder was beaten 21 1/2 lengths by Scottish Lassie in the CCA Oaks (G1). Antonio Fresu gets the return call from the Cotillion. Pass.

12. Dorth Vader (5-1)

Dorth Vader came within a nose of beating Thorpedo Anna in the Personal Ensign (G1). She loves 1 1/8 miles, and the two bright spots on her otherwise average form this year were both at the distance, and she earned triple-digit speed ratings both times. Contender.

Trained by George Weaver, Dorth Vader is 5: 1-2-0 in 2025. Despite being 5 years old, this will be the mare’s Breeders’ Cup debut. After making only one start last year, getting to the Breeders’ Cup became one of Dorth Vader’s connections’ main objectives. She ran huge against Thorpedo Anna in August, and Weaver is excellent at getting his trainees ready off the bench. He’s 21% wins with a 65% in-the-money clip with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Contender.

13. Regaled (30-1)

Regaled’s form has improved in each start since joining Whit Beckman’s barn in August, and she won the Delaware Handicap by a widening 6 1/4 lengths, earning her first triple-digit figure and a gaudy 113 late-pace figure. She owns a trio of triple-digit late-pace figures, and the one-run closer could hit the lower exotics if they go fast early.

Trained by Whit Beckman, Regaled certainly passed the eyeball test in the Delaware Handicap (G3), but that doesn’t negate the fact that the competition was much softer than she’ll face here. She has no prior Grade 1 attempts, and Beckman is 0% wins with a 13% in-the-money rate in Grade 1 races over the last five years. Joseph Ramos, who is having a breakout year, has the return call. Pass.