Head to Head: See 2 sides of Jockey Club Gold Cup

Laurie

Ashley

1. Disarm (15-1)

Off since April, Disarm closed with interest in the Whitney to finish third, two lengths shy of Sierra Leone. It was an excellent effort, netting a 103 Brisnet rating and a 105 late-pace figure. Steve Asmussen’s charge has been firing bullets over Saratoga’s training track and takes his seventh shot at earning a Grade 1 victory. Unless something untoward happens to the top trio, Disarm is looking at another exotics performance.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Disarm finished an excellent third at odds of 46-1 last out in the Whitney. Disarm doesn’t always receive a lot of love at the windows, but he is a reliable play in the lower exotics. Ignore him at your own peril, as Whitney betters found out when he was part of a 50-cent trifecta payout of $127.50 and a 10-cent superfecta payout of $133.90. Joel Rosario has the return call from the Whitney. Lower exotics.

2. Highland Falls (5-1)

Last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup hero Highland Falls returns to defend his title. He looked like a winner in the Whitney until Sierra Leone blew by, reaching the wire a length in front. Highland Falls earned a career-best 106 Brisnet rating, with a 107 late-pace figure. He could improve in his third start of the year, and perhaps he’ll get the jump on Sierra Leone. Win contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Highland Falls helped Disarm provide juicy exotics payouts while running second in the Whitney. The Godolphin homebred won this race last year by four lengths, but this year’s field is arguably tougher than what he faced last year. This will be Highland Falls’s third start off the layoff, and as good as he’s run so far, he can take another step forward here. Cox is 26% wins with a 61% in-the-money rate with runners third off the layoff. But Highland Falls is also just 3: 1-0-0 at 1 1/4 miles. Luis Saez has the return call. Exotics.

3.    Sierra Leone (8-5)

Sierra Leone improved his placing in each race this year, culminating in a one-length score over Highland Falls and Disarm in the Whitney (G1). His Brisnet ratings have followed suit, topping out at a Brisnet 107 with a spectacular 115 late-pace rating, the highest in this field. Now the Chad Brown trainee seeks consecutive victories, something he hasn’t achieved since his Kentucky Derby trail days. He also hopes to become the first Whitney-JCGC winner in 31 years. No pressure. Win contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone enters off a one-length triumph in the Whitney over several that are also in this field. Brown sent rabbit Contrary Thinking to the Whitney to ensure a hot pace for Sierra Leone to close into, and with the help of fellow long shot Mama’s Gold, Contrary Thinking did just that. Sierra Leone has never finished outside the trifecta and is 4: 1-1-2 at Saratoga and 4: 1-1-2 at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He also brings seven consecutive triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings to the table. Regular jockey Flavien Prat has the call. Contender.

4. Mindframe (2-1)

Mindframe scratched from the Whitney to point to this race. The Todd Pletcher trainee puts his three-race win streak on the line and hopes to best Sierra Leone for the third time. Mindframe has tactical speed and can settle behind the other speed types. Win contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Mindframe never has finished worse than second in his career and is undefeated in 2025, taking the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) and the Stephen Foster (G1). Mindframe received a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating for the seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1) and a 104 for the Stephen Foster (G1). He beat favored Sierra Leone in their last two meetings, but Sierra Leone brings his rabbit to the brawl this time. Regular jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Contender.

5. White Abarrio (8-1)

White Abarrio shined in the 2023 Whitney, but hasn’t hit the board at Saratoga otherwise. Gulfstream is his home, and his form is spotty elsewhere. The pretty gray colt gave it his best shot while traveling wide in this year’s Whitney, but the effort was only good enough for fourth place, four lengths behind Sierra Leone. Yet he earned a 102 Brisnet rating with a 104 late-pace figure. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee rarely finishes out of the superfecta, and I predict another fourth-place finish this time. Lower exotics. 

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., White Abarrio hasn’t won a race away from Gulfstream Park since the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He ran his record at Saratoga to 4: 1-0-0 when finishing fourth in the Whitney last out. As Laurie said, he does tend to finish in the superfecta more often than not, but I don’t like him at this distance on this track. Ricard Santana Jr. replaces regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who sticks with Mindframe. Pass.

6. Contrary Thinking (50-1)

Poor Contrary Thinking is being forced to be a rabbit for Sierra Leone again. He bumped at the break in the Whitney and was pushed to ensure a fast early pace with 53-1 long shot Mamma’s Gold. The well-bred son of Into Mischief had enough after a 47-second half-mile and eventually was eased. He deserves better from his trainer and owner. Pass.

Also from the Brown barn, Contrary Thinking is here for one reason and one reason only, to be Sierra Leone’s rabbit. Like the Ramseys’ Shining Copper when Big Blue Kitten wasn’t in the field, Contrary Thinking might get his day in the spotlight eventually, but this will not be that day. Dylan Davis has the return call. Pass.

7. Phileas Fogg (15-1)

A classic distance specialist, Phileas Fogg can run around the oval all day as long as he has the lead. He was last seen in the Suburban (G2), denying Antiquarian the victory by a head. Neither horse was impressive. Both received 107 Brisnet ratings, but Phileas Fogg recorded a 78 late-pace figure. He typically expends his energy mid-race, opens up a lead and plays catch me if you can. The tactic has worked well, since he hasn’t finished out of the top two since he was claimed last August. Now he’s taking on a higher class of runners who are a lot faster at the end of the race. Phileas Fogg may be out of hot air by mid-stretch. Pass.

Trained by Gustavo Rodriguez, Phileas Fogg comes in off a head victory over Antiquarian in the Suburban. He is 2-for-2 at Saratoga and at the 1 1/4-mile distance. But he has earned his oats by overpowering lesser rivals than he faces here. To be fair, he did receive a triple-digit Brisnet Speed Rating in his last three starts. Phileas Fogg accounts for Rodriguez’s only career graded win, and Rodriguez is 14% wins with a 33% in-the-money clip at Saratoga over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Kendrick Carmouche, who was aboard for the gelding’s last three starts, gets the leg up. Pass.

8. Antiquarian (12-1)

Like Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian expends his energy mid-race, but his late-pace figures range in the 80s to 90s. He’s competitive against lesser horses and is a pacesetter or presser. Hopefully, the Todd Pletcher charge won’t mess up stablemate Mindframe’s chances. Pass.

Also from the Pletcher barn, Antiquarian just missed to Phileas Fogg last out in the Suburban. He also was second to Mystik Dan in the Blame (G3) after winning an optional claimer at Gulfstream Park to kick off his 2025 campaign. Last year Antiquarian was steps behind Mindframe and Sierra Leone, and I believe he still is not in their stratosphere. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Pass.

9. Banishing (scratched)