Head to Head: Rivalries are renewed in BC Juvenile Fillies

Laurie

Ashley

1.   Iron Orchard (6-1)

Undefeated in three starts, Iron Orchard was erratic in the stretch of the Frizette, wanting to angle in. But once she straightened out, she passed horses to her inside like they were standing still then fought hard with the runner-up, winning the photo by a nose. The Danny Gargan trainee completed a mile in 1:35.97 with a slow 13.38 final furlong. She earned an 89 Brisnet Speed Rating, and her 80 late pace figure is among the Juvenile Fillies field’s lowest. By Authentic, Iron Orchard is the second foal out of the multiple stakes-placed sprinter Onebrethatatime. The second generation includes Shoemaker Mile (G1) hero Exaulted, and 2021 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Aloha West is part of the extended family. Iron Orchard posted a series of consistent four-furlong moves over Saratoga’s dirt training track in the 48 to 49 range. Previously a pacesetter, Iron Orchard rallied from mid-pack to win the Frizette. Her pedigree suggests the extra distance is within her scope. Exotics.

Trained by Danny Gargan, Iron Orchard is undefeated in three starts, including a determined nose victory in the Frizette. The Frizette was the filly’s first try in open company after facing New York-breds in her debut and in the Seeking the Ante Stakes. Iron Orchard showed speed in her first two starts but sat just off the pace in the Frizette. She received a career-high 89 Brisnet Speed Rating in both stakes races. Gargan has never won a Breeders’ Cup race and is 19% wins with a 31% in-the-money rate in Grade 1 events over the last five years. Regular rider Joel Rosario retains the mount. Exotics.

2.   Bottle of Rouge (9-2)

After outclassing Super Corredora  by 6 3/4 lengths in a maiden race at Del Mar, Bottle of Rouge made Explora and La Wally see red in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). In a textbook ride, Mike Smith settled the pretty gray filly behind the pace, tipped three wide and galloped home a one-length winner. The Bob Baffert trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:23.05 with a 13.31 final furlong. Bottle of Rouge earned an 89 speed rating with a middling 87 late-pace figure. Vino Rosso’s daughter is the second foal out of the Bluegrass Cat mare Blues Corner. The dam is half to multiple stakes winner Pablo’s Corner, who was successful from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles. Bottle of Rouge drilled a second-to-last five-furlong bullet in 59.40 inside the maiden winner, Provenance. Bottle of Rouge was shaken up before and after the wire and kept her measured neck lead. In her final breeze, Bottle of Rouge worked inside Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Litmus Test and was pushed to keep up in the final stages. Bottle of Rouge has tactical speed. She can close or press the pace, but she needs to improve in her first two-turn contest. Pass.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Bottle of Rouge was second on debut to next-out Sorrento (G3) winner Himika. She then trounced Super Corredora in her second outing and bested Explora and La Wally when winning the Del Mar Debutante (G1). Baffert opted to skip the Oak Leaf (G2) with her and train directly up to the Breeders’ Cup, meaning that Bottle of Rouge, like Brant in the Juvenile, does not have experience at a route distance. Bottle of Rouge received a 91 Brisnet Speed Rating for her initial victory, a number that dropped a bit to 89 in the Del Mar Debutante. Mike Smith gets the return call. Exotics.

3.   Meaning (15-1)

Meaning faces winners after beating maidens in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Los Alamitos, earning an 84 Brisnet rating and an 88 late-pace figure. Gun Runner’s daughter is the first foal out of Figure of Speech, who was third in the 2019 Spinaway (G1). The second dam, Colcon, was a multiple graded winner on turf from a mile to 1 1/8 miles and set a stakes record at a mile in 1:32.80 in the 1997 Noble Damsel (G3). Michael McCarthy gave Meaning a pre-race bullet five-furlong drill in 59.40 at Del Mar in company with the turf maiden Counterbalance, who was no match for Meaning. It turned into a solo work. Meaning was professional and not asked. There are lots of questions surrounding Meaning. She’s well-bred but is facing tougher while stretching out and giving up experience. But she bested La Ville Lumiere in a pre-race five-furlong move. Might be worth a long-shot exotic play if you’re spreading the wealth, but for this post’s handicapping purposes, I’ll Pass.

Trained by Michael McCarthy, Meaning debuted a winner at Los Alamitos. She won the lower-level event by 3 1/2 lengths and received an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating. None from that race have become winners. McCarthy is 17% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners. Umberto Rispoli piloted the filly in her debut, but since she shares similar connections to Journalism, he lost the mount in favor of Jose Ortiz. Pass.

4.   Percy’s Bar (9-2)

Percy’s Bar’s only defeat came at the hooves of Spinaway heroine Tommy Jo. This Ben Colebrook trainee was last seen fighting the same rival in the Alcibiades (G1). During an extended stretch batter, Percy’s Bar veered out into Tommy Jo, causing Tommy Jo to switch paths. Despite winning by 2 3/4 lengths, Percy’s Bar was disqualified. She earned a 94 Brisnet rating. But her 82 late-pace figure is one of the lowest in the Juvenile Filly field. By Upstart, Percy’s Bar is out of the unraced Super Saver mare Honestly Deb. The second dam, Debs Charm, was third in the Alcibiades (G2) and bore stakes-winning sprinters Praetereo and Simply Spiteful as well as a pair of graded-placed runners, Defense Wins and Dawn’s Charm. Percy’s Bar had a solo pre-race four-furlong move in 48.20 at Keeneland. Contender.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, Percy’s Bar won her first two races, including the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs. She then ran into Tommy Jo in the Spinaway (G1), finishing second, 6 1/2 lengths behind her. Those two met again in the Alcibiades (G1), and Percy’s Bar crossed the wire 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Tommy Jo but was disqualified to second for bumping Tommy Jo down the lane. She received a 94 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Colebrook has never won a Breeders’ Cup race but did send out Knicks Go to a runner-up effort in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He is also 0% wins with a 22% in-the-money clip in grade one events over the last five years. That stat aside, this filly is clearly talented. Regular rider Luan Machado retains the mount. Contender.

5.   Tommy Jo (7-2)

Undefeated in three starts, Tommy Jo continues her conflict with Percy’s Bar in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Although her speed ratings are in the low 90s, Todd Pletcher’s charge has the lowest late-pace figures in the field, a pair of 78s. That’s balanced by the pair of triple-digit E2 figures, the best in the Juvenile Filly field. Into Mischief’s daughter is the second foal out of the multiple Grade 1-placed sprinter-miler Mother Mother. The dam’s half-brother Commanding Curve was second in the 2014 Kentucky Derby. Tommy Jo owns a sharp pre-race four-furlong bullet in 47.88 over Saratoga’s training track. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Tommy Jo is undefeated in three starts by virtue of being awarded the Alcibiades win after Percy’s Bar was disqualified. Tommy Jo also counts a win in the Spinaway to her name. The Spendthrift homebred received a 91 for her debut and a 92 in the Spinaway. Despite getting solidly bumped in the stretch, she also received a 91 for the Alcibiades. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Contender.

6.   La Ville Lumiere (20-1)

La Ville Lumiere is capable on dirt and turf. She traveled easily on the rail behind the pacesetter in the Oak Leaf (G2) but managed only third place, bested by Explora and La Wally. The Michael McCarthy trainee earned a career-best 90 rating in her two-turn debut. City of Light’s daughter is the second foal out of the unraced Malibu Moon mare Malibu Drive. The highlights in this family include Grade 1 winner Silver State and 2001 Kentucky Derby hero Monarchs. In her final breeze, La Ville Lumiere was outside of Meaning, and the pair fired a bullet five furlongs in 59.40. Both were pushed through the lane, but Meaning wouldn’t let La Ville Lumiere by. La Ville Lumiere could improve with distance but needs to show more. Pass.

Also from the McCarthy barn, La Ville Lumiere’s only win came on turf. She debuted on dirt and was second. The winner of that race was sixth behind Percy’s Bar next out in the Debutante. She won at second asking when switching to the turf but was then fifth in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. McCarthy switched her back to dirt for the Oak Leaf (G2), and she nabbed third off 32-1 odds. Both of her dirt speed ratings were better than her turf efforts, but that’s not saying a lot. Regular rider Kazushi Kimura has the mount. Pass.

7.   Explora (5-2)

Explora’s sole loss was to Bottle of Rouge in the Del Mar Debutante, but this Bob Baffert trainee was bumped at the start and had no response when her stablemate passed only strides from the wire. Explora returned to outclass her rivals by 4 1/2 lengths in the Oak Leaf, stopping the clock at 1:44.13 with a final 6.74 final furlong. The performance received a 97 speed rating with a competitive 96 late-pace figure. Blame’s daughter is the third foal out of the winning Bernardini mare Collections Choice. Explora’s second dam, Model, was multiple Grade 1-placed from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles. Explora breezed a solo five-furlong bullet in 1:00.20 at Santa Anita. She had her ears up early then extended her stride comfortably in the stretch without being asked. Contender.

Also from the Baffert barn, Explora won the Oak Leaf last out as the odds on favorite, winning by 4 1/2 lengths over La Wally and La Ville Lumiere. She also beat La Wally to the wire in the Del Mar Debutante though she was second to Bottle of Rouge. Explora also won her debut, making her 3: 2-1-0 overall. This daughter of Blame has the highest speed ratings in the field with the 98 she earned in her debut and the 97 she received for the Oak Leaf. Regular rider J.J. Hernandez will get the leg up. Contender.

8.   Super Corredora (15-1)

The third time was the charm for Super Corredora when she dominated maidens at Santa Anita, traveling a mile in 1:37.83 with a 12.63 final furlong under a hand ride. The John Sadler trainee’s Brisnet rating improved to 93, and her 99 late pace figure is the field’s highest. Gun Runner’s daughter is the second foal out of the Super Saver mare Super Simple. The mare’s stakes-winning half-sister Simple Surprise bore multiple Grade 1 winner Gunite, who was second in the 2023 BC Sprint. Super Corredora had a solo pre-race four-furlong move at Santa Anita in 47.40, second-best for the day. Despite breaking her maiden 20 days ago, Super Corredora could improve in her second start off the layoff for a conservative trainer. Live long shot.

Trained by John Sadler, Super Corredora broke her maiden Oct. 11 in her third start after getting away from the likes of La Wally and Bottle of Rouge. There were several variables that could have caused her improvement: her run style changed from presser to pacesetter, she moved from Del Mar to Santa Anita, stretched out to two turns, and dropped in class. It is interesting to see Sadler run this filly back so soon. But he is 20% wins with a 54% in-the-money clip with runners racing on an eight- to 30-day turnaround over in last five years. Super Corredora’s speed ratings have improved with each start, culminating with a 93 last out. Regular rider Hector Berrios retains the mount. Live long shot.

9.   La Wally (10-1)

Although Explora bested her twice, La Wally gained ground in all three starts, a challenging feat on speed-favoring tracks. She posted a career-best 92 speed rating in the Oak Leaf in her first two-turn start, and her 91 late-pace figure is the third-best in this field. Constitution’s daughter is the second foal out of the winning Gemologist mare Moonstone. The third generation of this family includes graded-winning sprinter Crafty C.T. Mark Glatt put several five-furlong stamina works into La Wally, all in the 1:00 to 1:01 range. She should improve with distance. Live long shot.

Trained by Mark Glatt, La Wally debuted a winner in a five furlong sprint at Del Mar. She was then third, beaten by just 1 1/2 lengths, in the Del Mar Debutante and second by 4 1/4 lengths in the Oak Leaf. She earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating for her most recent outing. Glatt hasn’t won a Breeders’ Cup race, but he’s had success in hitting the board. Flavien Prat takes over from regular rider Antonio Fresu, who does not have an alternate mount in this race. Prat and Glatt have struck together at a 38% win rate and 81% in-the-money clip over the past year. Exotics.