Head to Head: Rising stars collide in Pennsylvania Derby

Laurie

Ashley

1. So Sandy (15-1)

A $535,000 Keeneland September yearling, So Sandy is a late bloomer. He was an underachieving 2-year-old but matured rapidly since May. After he destroyed a herd of maidens at Horseshoe Indianapolis by five lengths, the Cherie DeVaux trainee bested optional-claiming allowance types at Churchill. So Sandy stepped up in the restricted Curlin Stakes. He rated two wide, then hooked up with Chancer McPatrick around the far turn. So Sandy gave the more accomplished colt all he could handle and briefly stuck his head in front but was ultimately denied. Omaha Beach’s son is out of the winning Tapit mare So Fancy. The mare's half sister bore last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine, Vodka with a Twist. So Sandy’s third dam is the 2004 Humana Distaff (G1) winner, Mayo on the Side. So Sandy’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved in his last three starts, topping out at 97. His late-pace figures have followed, and his 102 figure for the Curlin fits with the Pennsylvania Derby heavyweights. Live long shot, exotics.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, So Sandy got up for second at odds of 13-1 in the restricted Curlin Stakes last out, missing the win by a head to Chancer McPatrick. It took the colt five attempts to find the winner’s circle, losing his first four races by a combined 45 1/4 lengths. He finally broke through in a low-level maiden event at Horseshoe Indianapolis when switching to an early run style. After beginning his career with a 4: 0-0-0 record, So Sandy has since scored 3: 2-1-0. So Sandy’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved over his last four starts, culminating with a 97 in the Curlin Stakes. DeVaux has 13% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years. Kendrick Carmouche has the mount. Exotics.

2. Altobelli  (50-1)

Altobelli is the Pennsylvania Derby why? horse. His speed ratings have decreased in each start since moving to James Nicholson Jr.’s barn, and they needed a search party to find Altobelli after his last race at Delaware. He might enjoy a new career as an eventer. Pass.

Trained by James Nicholson Jr., Altobelli enters off a distant sixth-place finish in a starter optional claiming event at Delaware Park. With a career record of 15: 4-0-0, the son of Authentic is the most experienced runner in the field, but that’s about all he has going for him. Altobelli has never raced beyond 6 1/2 furlongs and is with his third trainer. Since joining Nicholson’s barn in May, the colt hasn’t finished better than fourth. Nicholson is 0% across the board in all stakes races in the last five years. Angel Castillo, who has one graded victory in the U.S., has the mount. Pass.

3. Magnitude (6-1)

Magnitude is a drag racer. Pedal to the, uh, dirt, and keep going for as long as he can. That didn’t work out so well in the Travers (G1), where he set solid fractions to the thee-quarters mark while being pressed by Bracket Buster. Then the Steve Asmussen trainee faded like last season’s TikTok trend, finishing 20 lengths behind Sovereignty. Magnitude fired a second-to-last, pre-race, five-furlong bullet in 1:00.64 and returned with a four-furlong move in 49.95, faster than previous works, which is a positive sign for his third start off the layoff. Still, he’ll have his hooves full with other speed types, although unlike them, he can carry his. Lower exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude, who was pegged as the only real threat to Sovereignty, was last seen finishing third in the Travers (G1), 20 3/4 lengths behind winner Sovereignty and 10 3/4 lengths behind runner-up Bracket Buster. The spread on the field of five was a whopping 67 3/4 lengths. Before the Travers, Magnitude won the Risen Star (G2) in gate-to-wire fashion by 9 3/4 lengths and returned a winner in the Iowa Derby, winning that race by 9 1/4 lengths. I like the cutback in distance for Magnitude and believe he will be hard to catch if he shakes loose early. His Brisnet Speed Ratings are among the best in the field, with only Baeza posting a better number. Ben Curtis has the return call. Contender.

4. David of Athens (12-1)

David of Athens is another improving colt. He bested eventual Grade 1 winning sprinter Patch Adams in their debut, then was sidelined until this June, when he surfaced in an optional-claiming allowance at Churchill. David of Athens obviously needed the start. He broke last, had to steady and climbed at the start. The Brendan Walsh trainee was climbing and not appreciating the kickback, then went seven wide around the turn. Despite that, David of Athens passed tired horses and finished with interest behind Camp Hale, who he had bested in their debut. David of Athens showed what he could do in his latest race, destroying allowance runners at Ellis Park by 7 1/4 lengths. He completed a mile in a quick 1:35.07 with a sharp 12.50 final furlong while under strong urging. The performance earned him a 102 Brisnet rating with a 100 late-pace figure. David of Athens didn’t beat much, but he did it with style. Brendan Walsh gave Nyquist’s son a pre-race, five-furlong move outside of Gosger at Churchill in 59.60, the best of 40. It was a thought-provoking move, as neither horse gave an inch, yet Gosger was shaken up past the wire to stay with David of Athens, who galloped out in front. This colt had a trio of quick five-furlong moves, and his pedigree suggests that 1 1/8 miles is within his scope. David of Athens gets a class and distance test against some of the best 3-year-olds. We’ll see if he’s up to it. He doesn’t need the lead to win and is another promising prospect. Long shot, exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, David of Athens enters off a 7 1/4-length victory against older runners in a mile allowance race at Ellis Park. Two from that race won next out, albeit one did so while dropping into the claiming ranks. This colt is lightly raced, with only three starts. David of Athens won his debut at Keeneland in October 2024, defeating eventual Woody Stephens (G1) and H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) winner Patch Adams in the process. He was shelved for eight months, finally reappearing at Churchill Downs, where he was sixth but placed fifth through disqualification in an optional claimer. He lost by only 2 1/2 lengths, however, and was hindered by a slow start and a wide trip. He received a 102 Brisnet Speed Rating for his most recent effort, but a win from this colt would be a surprise. I do think he’s one to keep an eye on in the future. Tyler Gaffalione has the return call. Exotics.

5. Happily Delusional (30-1)

Happily Delusional is living up to his name. The local hope’s sole victory in 15 starts was against maidens in January. Perhaps the flash of the camera in the winner’s circle spooked him since he hasn’t come close since and was 10 lengths out of it in the listed Smarty Jones Stakes in his last start. He’s another why? horse in here. He’s hit the board in optional claimers, so there’s some talent, just not of this quality. Pass.

Trained by Louis Linder Jr., Happily Delusional is an apt moniker for this entrant and his connections. The son of Flatter was last seen finishing 10th, 10 3/4 lengths behind winner Tip Top Thomas, in the Smarty Jones Stakes, the local prep for the Pennsylvania Derby. Earlier in the year, he was seventh in the Peter Pan (G3), fourth in the Federico Tesio, and fourth in the City of Brotherly Love Stakes. Linder has 0% wins with a 23% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years. The colt does own a 9: 1-5-0 record over this track, but that won’t be enough to overcome a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. Paco Lopez has the return call. Pass.

6. Goal Oriented (5-2)

Goal Oriented finished behind Gosger both times they met but gave that one all he could handle in a thrilling Haskell (G1) finish, bested only three-quarters of a length on the wire when a determined Gosger pushed in front at the last moment. Neither were in Journalism’s class, and that one won despite being given a difficult task of being too far back. Brisnet shows that Goal Oriented expends his energy in the early stages of the race. His E2 figures are improving triple digits, but his late-pace figures are middling. Still, Goal Oriented must be respected, given his talent and the connections. Contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Goal Oriented gets a drop in class after facing Journalism in his last two starts. He finished fourth in the Preakness, beaten by 6 3/4 lengths, and third in the Haskell, beaten by 3/4 lengths. Even though Journalism isn’t in this field, Goal Oriented still faces Gosger, who out-finished him in the aforementioned two races. Goal Oriented earned a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Haskell. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over from Flavien Prat. Contender.

7. Big Truzz (10-1)

Big Truzz is hit-or-miss against lesser types. Brian Lynch’s inconsistent charge was no factor in the Indiana Derby (G3) but beat allowance types in the listed Ellis Park Derby. By Justify, Big Truzz is out of a Curlin daughter, so he has the pedigree to run all day. Getting the distance won’t be a problem. Doing it quickly against this group will. Pass.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Big Truzz enters off a seven-length victory in the Ellis Park Derby, where he earned a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed Rating. The drop in class worked wonders for the colt, whopreviously was third in the Woody Stephens (G1) and sixth in the Indiana Derby (G3). This lightly raced colt has finished worse than third only once, and that was when he stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in the Indiana Derby (G3). I don’t believe Big Truzz is best suited to this distance against this caliber of rivals. Javier Castellano takes over from Tyler Gaffalione. Pass.

8. Baeza (2-1)

The multiple classic-placed Baeza gets out of the shadow of the top pair for a chance to shine. His overall Brisnet ratings and late-speed figures are the field’s highest. Contender.

Trained by John Shirreffs, Baeza is arguably the third-best 3-year-old colt in the country. Since breaking his maiden in February, he’s been second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), third in the Kentucky Derby, third in the Belmont, and second in the Jim Dandy (G2), losing only to Sovereignty and-or Journalism during that streak. He has posted four consecutive triple-digit speed ratings, including a field-best 107 when finishing second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). With neither in this field, it could finally be his time to shine. The only downside is that Shirreffs has 0% wins with a 29% in-the-money clip with shippers in the last year. Regular rider Hector Isaac Berrios has the mount. Contender.

9. Gosger (4-1)

Gosger also gets a chance to shine and finished second to Journalism by a combined length in their last two meetings. What’s left to say? Ashley gives the run-down. Contender.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Gosger has never been worse than second in his career. This includes a victory in the Lexington (G3) and runner-up efforts to Journalism in the Preakness and the Haskell (G1), both of which were decided by a half-length. Gosger received a 106 Brisnet Speed Rating for the Preakness and a 105 for the Haskell (G1). Walsh has 11% wins with a 40% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the Preakness and Haskell, has the return call. Contender.

10. Mo Plex (12-1)

Mo Plex finished out of the top three for the first time in the Jim Dandy. He stumbled slightly at the start yet recovered quickly to set the pace. Manny Franco attempted to slow Mo Plex after a half-mile to give him a breather, but Mo Plex resisted. That cost him in the end, as Mo Plex had nothing left for the stretch, finishing 10 lengths behind Sovereignty. Jeremiah Englehart gave Mo Plex a pre-race solo four-furlong bullet in 48. Mo Plex will be outside speed against other quality contenders. Lower exotics.

Trained by Jeremiah Englehart, Mo Plex was last seen finishing fourth in the Jim Dandy (G2), 10 1/4 lengths behind winner Sovereignty. He won the Bay Shore Stakes and the Ohio Derby (G3) in his two starts prior to that start. I didn’t like Mo Plex for the top spots in the Jim Dandy, and my opinion hasn’t changed since then. Englehart has 19% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years. Joseph Ramos, who was aboard for the Ohio Derby, has the mount. Pass.