Head to Head: Ragtime tops full field in Raven Run

Laurie

Ashley

1. Delightful Claire (10-1)

On the board in all four lifetime starts, Delightful Claire has tangled with the big girls but is still searching for her first stakes trophy. She was second in the Prioress (G3) after a disastrous start as the odds-on favorite, then zipped out of the gate and set an uncontested pace in the Dogwood (G3). The Phillip Bauer trainee fought valiantly down the stretch while drifting but ran out of oats and finished third behind the closers, Ragtime and Strong State, bested 2 3/4 lengths. Delightful Claire’s Brisnet ratings are in the high 80s, but her late pace figures put her at the lower part of the Raven Run field. She’ll face other speed and will have to hold off closers. Perhaps she can hang on for another lower exotics placing, but I’ll pass.

Trained by Philip Bauer, Delightful Claire was unveiled in June, finishing third, missing the win by just a length. Winner Princess Proud won again next out and was then second in the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park. Fifth place finisher Chaching Chaching was a next out winner, and two others from that field have since broken their maidens. Delightful Claire then won at second asking, scampering off to a 9 1/4-length victory in a seven-furlong event at Saratoga. Third-place finisher Ivory and Ebony was a next out winner and then second in the Seneca Overnight when facing Immersive and Quickick. The fourth and last place finishers also won next out and three more were second next out. Delightful Claire was then second in the Prioress (G3) and third in the Dogwood (G3) behind fellow Raven Run entrants Ragtime and Strong State. Bauer is winless wins over the last 30 days and 17% wins with a 42% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Joel Rosario, who was aboard for the filly’s only victory, has the call. Pass.

2. Vixen (20-1)

Despite a strong turf career, Vixen shortens up and experiments with dirt. Although her sire Vekoma gets runners on all surfaces, Vixen’s half-sister is a turf router, and their dam Top Mission, by Europe champion Noble Mission, was unplaced in four starts on dirt and all-weather. That being said, Vixen has an extended stride and reaches out nicely on dirt during morning works. The $400,000 question is whether she can handle the kickback. Perhaps she can emulate Om N Joy’s successful switch from the turf. Might be worth a long shot exotics bet if you’re spreading the wealth around, but I’m not putting her in my top four. Pass.

Trained by Mark Casse, Vixen will be making her dirt debut despite having finished off the board on turf just once in nine starts. It should be noted that Vixen faced Nitrogen, who did make a successful transition to dirt, twice with no answer to that one. Casse wins at 16% with a 51% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners and 18% with a 43% in-the-money rate with route-to-sprint runners over the last year. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Irad Ortiz, Jr., who has split regular riding duties with John Velazquez. Gaffalione and Casse are just 5% wins together over the last year. Pass.

3. Strong State (15-1)

Strong State has matured this year. The up-and-comer closed from last but couldn’t keep up with Ragtime in the Dogwood (G3) and settled for second. Al Stall, Jr. gives Strong State a shiny new set of blinkers, perhaps to keep her closer to the pace. Ashley can give you the stats on that. A quick early pace will benefit Strong State, and her Brisnet late pace figures are competitive. Live long shot.

Trained by Albert Stall, Jr., Strong State improved from last year to finish second in the Dogwood (G3) last out after being a non-threatening fourth in the Spinaway (G1) and seventh in the Pocahontas (G3) last year as a juvenile. For a quick comparison, Strong State was 4: 1-1-0 last year but is 3: 2-1-0 this year after an 8 1/2 month layoff. Like Laurie said, Strong State will run with blinkers, and Stall, Jr. is 29% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with that angle over the last year. Conversely, he’s winless with a 14% in-the-money rate with blinkers back on. James Graham has the return call from the Dogwood (G3). I concur with Laurie…live long shot.

4. Volleyballprincess (30-1)

Volleyballprincess has talent but needs a major rebound after struggling in graded company. The Louis Linder, Jr. trainee is a pacesetter or presser. She might add early speed, but her form and speed ratings indicate she’ll fade like the summer heat. Pass.

Trained by Louis Linder, Jr., Volleyballprincess is on a six race losing streak, including a ninth place finish in the Miss Preakness (G3) and sixth place finish in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). She did perform better in listed stakes during that period, however, going 3: 0-2-1. Linder, Jr. is winless wins with a 31% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Jaime Torres, who has not ridden for Linder, Jr. in the last year, has the call. Pass.

5. Om N Joy (15-1)

Om N Joy doesn’t have nuts, but she does have five straight victories since switching to the dirt. After outclassing state-breds, the Aggie Ordoñez trainee stepped up against a sweet field in the one-mile Torrey Pines, which included Grade 1 heroine Tenma, eventual Remington Oaks winner So There She Was, and Howin, who was third in the Zenyatta (G2) in her next start. Om N Joy chased a slow pace, circled the field and kept going, winning by a well-timed half-length. Her late-pace ratings are among the highest in the Raven Run field. Contender.

Trained by Aggie Ordoñez, Om N Joy has raced primarily in California-bred company. She did begin her career on dirt, where she went 3: 0-0-2. She then tried turf, going 4: 0-0-2. Since the switch back to dirt, Om N Joy has rattled off five straight victories, including successfully taking on open company in the Torrey Pines (G3). Ordoñez has a poor shipping record, however, with no wins and a 29% in-the-money rate when shipping over the last year and is 50% across the board in graded stakes during that same time. Kent Desormeaux has the return call. Pass.

6. Reputation (15-1)

Blink and you’ll miss her. Reputation went on a road trip this summer from Churchill to Ellis Park to Colonial Downs and back to her home track of Gulfstream. Along the way, she picked up a pair of minor awards, then, after stumbling at the start of her graded stakes debut, the Gustavo Delgado trainee finished a distant third, beaten 5 1/4 lengths in the Princess Rooney (G3). Reputation has tactical speed. She can close, press or set the pace. Her Brisnet ratings aren’t bad, but Reputation must prove she can run with this group. Pass.

Trained by Gustavo Delgado, Reputation has three wins from seven starts including a 6 3/4 length romp in the Tyson Gilpin Stakes at Colonial. Reputation was compromised in the Princess Rooney (G3) due to stumbling, and yet she still received the second highest Brisnet speed rating of her career. She’s also 3: 2-0-1 at the seven furlong distance of the Raven Run. Delgado has 7% wins with a 43% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Luan Machado takes back over from Miguel Vasquez. Exotics.

7. Maida (10-1)

Speedball Maida lost her debut but has had her picture taken ever since. Conditioned by Brittany Russell, Maida has outclassed lesser foes in the mid-Atlantic states and now gets a class test while adding a furlong against other speedy types. Maida’s speed ratings are middling, and she’s never faced a serious threat. Pass.

Trained by Brittany Russell, Maida has won her last three starts by a combined 21 1/2 lengths after dropping her debut, which was contested over a muddy track. In her third start, Maida bested eventual Maryland Million Distaff runner-up Green Eyed Monster, Dashing Beauty Stakes (Delaware) runner-up M J’s Yoshida, and Shine Again Stakes (Timonium) runner-up Hot Fudge Warrior. In the Weather Vane Stakes, Maida’s most recent start, she beat a pair of stakes winners as well as Frizette (G1) third place finisher Social Fortress, who was making her first start in nearly a year. Russell has just 9% wins with a 30% in-the-money rate in graded stakes and 6% wins with a 33% in-the-money clip at Keeneland over the last five years. Husband Sheldon Russell has the mount. Exotics.

8. Usha (9-2)

A muscular chestnut with distinctive chrome detailing, Usha’s form suddenly improved by 16 3/4 lengths this summer when she returned to Bob Baffert’s barn. Like a few others in the Raven Run, Usha gets a class test in her initial graded start. Usha’s speed ratings jumped from the 70s last year to 99 and 100, respectively, this year. Perhaps she’ll run them off their feet, but I expect a lesser placement. Exotics.

Now back with Bob Baffert, Usha matured during a nine-month hiatus from the track. The daughter of Tiz the Law went 4: 0-2-2 as a juvenile but has now won both starts as a 3-year-old. As a juvenile, Usha faced eventual Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed turf runner Thought Process, multiple graded stakes winner Tenma, grade two winner Non Compliant, and New York-bred stakes types Mischief Lady and Princess Mischief. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes over from regular rider JJ Hernandez. Contender.

9. Ragtime (3-1)

A neck shy of being undefeated, Ragtime is a seven-furlong specialist. Conditioned by Bill Mott, Ragtime can be placed anywhere and still run her race. She doesn’t mind bumping, and proved she could overcome trouble in the Dogwood (G3), where she started slow and rolled down the lane to a 2 1/4 length victory. Ragtime completed seven furlongs in 1:22.35 and got her final furlong in a jazzy 12.32 seconds. Her four late-pace figures range from 101 to 104. Contender.

Trained by Bill Mott, Ragtime came up just a neck shy in the Test (G1) but got it done by 2 1/4 lengths last out in the Dogwood (G3). As Laurie said, that was her lone career defeat. She made her first three starts at Saratoga and was last seen at Churchill Downs. Regular rider and this year’s Kentucky Derby winning jockey Junior Alvarado has the call. Contender.

10. Simply Joking (8-1)

Simply Joking looked good on this year’s Kentucky Oaks trail, but 1 1/8 miles was too far. After a summer vacay in California, Simply Joking surfaces in the Raven Run. She had a recent five-furlong bullet in California with Grade 2 winner Liguria. The pair moved easily, completing the work in 58.8 seconds; neither was asked.

Simply Joking’s pedigree is speed-oriented, so she should enjoy the cut back in distance. The concern is how she’ll fare shipping in against other pacesetter-presser types with current form while breaking from an outside post. Exotics.

Now in the barn of Michael McCarthy, Simply Joking debuted a winner in he Letellier Memorial Stakes and followed that up with a win in the Silverbulletday and a runner-up finish to Quietside in the Fantasy (G2). Perhaps the Kentucky Oaks distance was a bit much for the filly, but she also didn’t get her typical pacesetting or pressing trip. I do think she’ll appreciate the cutback in distance, especially for her first start in five months. McCarthy has 8% wins with a 48% in-the-money rate with first after a trainer switch starters over the last year and is 17% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip with starters first off a 61-180 day layoff over the last five years. Frankie Dettori has the mount. Exotics.

11. Quietside (4-1)

Quietside also took a well-deserved break after a poor showing in the Kentucky Oaks, which was her eighth straight start, mainly in stakes competition. The John Ortiz trainee has class and consistency; she hit the board in both starts off layoffs. Malibu Moon’s daughter has a pair of sharp breezes at Keeneland. The concern for this pace-presser is an outside post. She may get a wide trip. Exotics.

Trained by John Ortiz Alexander, Quietside, like Simply Joking, is also making her first start since the Kentucky Oaks, in which she was sixth. That was her only career finish outside the trifecta. Laurie brought up the outside post, but I’m not overly concerned with that. Post 13 may have cost her in the Oaks, but she won the Honeybee (G3) from post 12 and was second to champion Immersive in the Spinaway (G1) from post 11. I’m more concerned with her career high 94 Brisnet speed rating since a few in the field have better numbers than that. However, some of the best runners don’t always post eye-catching figures. Regular rider Jose Ortiz has the mount. Contender.

12. Vodka With a Twist (10-1)

Vodka With a Twist is also very consistent, but had her picture taken only twice in a dozen starts. She was second to eventual 2-year-old champ Immersive in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and her only off-the-board finish was over the lawn in July at Ellis Park. The Phil D’Amato trainee placed second in all three starts at seven furlongs, and perhaps the trend will continue. However, the outside post doesn’t help her pace-pressing style. Exotics.

Trained by Philip D’Amato, Vodka With a Twist is on a nine race losing streak with her last win coming in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs in June 2024. Take nothing away from this filly, though, as she was second to champion Immersive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, second to multiple graded-stakes winner Tenma in the Del Mar Debutante (G1), as well as on the board in four other graded events. D’Amato is 14% wins with a 25% in-the-money rate at Keeneland over the last five years, and Vodka With a Twist was fourth in both previous starts at Keeneland. Luis Saez, who was aboard two starts back for the filly’s second place finish in the Charles Town Oaks (G2), has the mount. Exotics.

13. Kappa Kappa AE (8-1)

Parx-based Kappa Kappa beat up on state-bred allowance types in her last start. She looks up against it if she draws in. Pass.

Trained by Robert Reid, Jr., Kappa Kappa has raced exclusively at Parx and is 3: 2-1-0 lifetime. If she draws in, she will add to the pace and definitely be up against it. Mychel Sanchez has the return call. Pass.

14. Taliesin AE (12-1)

Another Parx-based competitor, Taliesin was bested six lengths in her stakes debut. Pass.

Trained by Jacinto Solis, who has never won a graded event, Taliesin is also Parx-based. She tried stakes company in the Cathryn Sophia and was beaten by weaker than she’ll face here. Regular jockey Frankie Pennington is the named rider. Pass.

15. Tetiaroa AE (15-1)

Tetiaroa beat maidens at seven furlongs in her Churchill debut. She was more recently fourth after a troubled trip against allowance optional claimers. Pass.

Also from the Bauer barn, Tetiaroa won her debut sprinting seven furlongs. She was eased in her second start, a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer, and was most recently fourth in allowance company, though it should be noted that she beat every older runner in the field. Luis Saez, who has the mount for Vodka With a Twist, is the named rider. Pass.