Head to Head: Opposing positions on Ky. Oaks prep

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Atropa (2-1)

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Atropa enters off a near miss in the Golden Rod. After racing in mid-field, Atropa launched a rally that propelled her into second, but she ran out of real estate before she could catch winner Bella Ballerina, flashing under the wire just a half-length behind that one. Atropa was sixth on debut in the slop at Saratoga. She caught a fast track in her second start while stretching out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 mile and drew off to win by ten lengths under Jose Ortiz. Spa Prospector, the winner of Atropa’s debut race, was third in the Adirondack (G3) next out. Measure, runner-up to Atropa in her second start, was a next-out winner, and two others finished second next out. The filly’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, culminating with a career- and field-best 91 in the Golden Rod (G2). Jose Ortiz gets the return call. Contender.

Atropa was wide on both turns in the Golden Rod and closed into a moderate pace, making up 11 1/2 lengths from the 3/4 pole to just miss by 3/4 length. It was an impressive effort, earning the Cherie DeVaux trainee a 91 Brisnet rating and a 93 late-pace figure. Atropa posted a sharp 47.60 post-race breeze, the second best of 30, a positive sign. Into Mischief’s daughter is the second foal out of Bellera (Bernardini), a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. The second dam, multiple graded-placed sprinter Habiboo, is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and sire Street Boss. She’s also the second dam of multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter-miler and sire Jack Christopher. Atropa’s speed ratings have improved in each start, and with a good break, she could settle closer to the pace with a cushy rail trip. Contender.

2.  Dancin in Old Town (10-1)

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Dancin in Old Town is still a maiden after two starts. The daughter of Tapit was off slowly in her debut but rallied to finish third of 10, beaten by 2 1/4 lengths. Raspberry, the runner-up from that race, was most recently ninth in the Golden Rod after a troubled trip. But two others were next-out winners, and a third won two starts later. Dancin in Old Town stretched out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles for her second start and finished second, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths. Winner Just Singing was third in the Golden Rod next out, and third-place finisher Search Party has since become a winner. The filly’s Brisnet Speed Rating improved from a 75 to an 84. Desormeaux has 20% wins with a 53% in-the-money clip with runners entered off a 2-6 month layoff. Regular rider James Graham has the return call. Exotics.

As Ashley noted, Dancin in Old Town was off slowly in her debut. She also had to steady hard around the first turn and was stuck in rush-hour traffic most of the way. She took back to almost last to get to the outside and made a sustained four-wide move around the turn. She was tired and one-paced down the lane but managed to check in second, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. The Keith Desormeaux trainee’s Brisnet rating improved to 84, and her 96 late-pace figure is the field’s highest. Tapit’s daughter is the second foal out of the multiple stakes-winning turf router Abingdon (Street Cry). The dam’s half-brother, Francesco Clemente, is a Grade 3 turf router, and a half-sister bore a pair of dirt stakes-winning sprinter-milers. The classy third generation is filled with international Group 1-winning turf routers. Desormeaux gave the pretty gray a six-furlong stamina work before a pre-race bullet four-furlong bullet in 47.80. Dancin in Old Town had trouble in both starts, but she kept going. She has very high knee action and might eventually find her way to the lawn. Exotics.

3.  White Smoke (9-2)

Also from the DeVaux barn, White Smoke debuted a winner at Fair Grounds in a six-furlong sprint. The daughter of Essential Quality was away last of eight but put in a long, sustained drive to win by a length. The early pacesetter ticked off quick early fractions while White Smoke put in a one-paced effort. That race was contested on Dec. 20, and only one runner has made a subsequent start: a 10th-place finish in the mud. Jose Ortiz rode both DeVaux runners last out and opted to stick with Atropa, so Flavien Prat will get the leg up. Exotics.

As Ashley noted, White Smoke walked out of the gate and lost contact with the field but made up more than nine lengths from the half-mile pole to win going away. The effort netted the Cherie DeVaux trainee an 80 Brisnet rating and a sharp late-pace figure of 95. By the third-leading first-crop sire Essential Quality, White Smoke is a half to Promise Keeper, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. She also is half to stakes winner Wicked Awesome and Grade 3-placed War Stopper. The second generation of this classy family includes Owendale, a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles, and Grade 1-winning juvenile Great Hunter. Although she drifted slightly through the stretch, White Smoke didn’t hesitate while passing horses, and she should love the extra distance. Exotics.

4.  Taken by the Wind (5-2)

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Taken by the Wind is undefeated in two starts, including a 5 1/4-length romp in the Pocahontas. The Rock Your World filly debuted in an optional claimer at Saratoga and won by three lengths. That race produced two other next-out winners. Pocahontas fourth-place finisher Dazzling Dame suffered her only career defeat that day and since has won the White Clay Creek Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths and the Busanda by 11 1/2 lengths. Taken by the Wind hasn’t raced since, a gap of four months, and McPeek has 12% wins with a 35% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a 90+ day layoff over the last year, according to Brisnet. Her speed rating improved from an 83 to an 89. Interestingly, however, this filly does not yet have a regular rider. Brian Hernandez Jr. is the named jockey for this race, and he will be her third pairing in as many starts. Contender.

Taken by the Wind tailgated the quick early pace in the Pocahontas while on the rail. She was briefly stuck in a traffic jam around the far turn but threaded her way through a narrow opening between fillies and was gone with the wind. The Kenny McPeek trainee completed a mile in 1:36.50 with a 13.07 final furlong. Her Brisnet rating improved to 89, with a slow 84 late-pace figure. By the fifth leading first-crop sire Rock Your World, Taken by the Wind is a half to stakes-placed sprinter Running Memories. The class skips to the third generation of the distaff line and includes multiple Grade 1-winning heroine Society Selection. Taken by the Wind had a swift second-to-last four-furlong breeze in 47.40, third-best of 20. Taken by the Wind runs with her head up, and her speed figures aren’t all that, but she’s game and wants to win. That can’t be taught. Exotics.

5.   Luv Your Neighbor (4-1)

Trained by Michael Stidham, Luv Your Neighbor has had only one race to not love, and that was over Woodbine’s Tapeta track in the seven-furlong Glorious Song Stakes. Otherwise, despite encountering trouble in her last two starts, Luv Your Neighbor has been the picture of consistency. She won her debut at Colonial Downs by a nose in the slop and was second by a half-length in an optional claimer and second by a head in the Untapable Stakes, both over the Fair Grounds track, in her last two starts. Along with her actual performances, Luv Your Neighbor’s numbers have been consistent: 80, 80 and a career-high 83 last out. Axel Concepcion seems to have become her regular rider and has the return call. Exotics.

In the Untapable Stakes Luv Your Neighbor rated in rush-hour traffic early then scrapped the rail around the turn to engage Pashmina. Luv Your Neighbor and Hit Parade fought head-to-head down the lane, with Hit Parade winning the photo. It was an impressive effort, considering Axel Concepcion lost an iron while playing bumper cars. The Michael Stidham trainee earned a career-high 83 Brisnet rating and a strong 91 late-pace figure. The one mile, 70-yard contest was completed in 1:42.97. Constitution’s daughter is the second foal out of the winning Into Mischief mare Disobedient. Luv Your Neighbor’s half-brother Faber was third in a trio of stakes between a mile and 1 1/2 miles last year at Woodbine. Their dam is half to a stakes winning sprinter and a Grade 3-placed sprinter. The graded black type in this family is found in the fourth generation and includes two-time Champion Turf Mare Tenpin. Luv Your Neighbor luvs close calls and should luv the extra distance. Contender.

6.   Pashmina (5-1)

Trained by Rob Atras, Pashmina debuted on turf, a surface that was not to her liking. When switched to dirt, Pashmina ran like a filly rather than a goat, dashing off to a 10 3/4-length victory while traveling 1 1/16 miles. Pashmina did the early leg work in the Untapable Stakes but was put into tight quarters by winner Hit Parade and runner-up Luv Your Neighbor in the early stretch drive. She gallantly gathered herself to save third, with the stewards ultimately deciding there would be no change to the order of finish. Pashmina appeared to be running on well prior to the incident, but finishing 4 1/2 lengths behind the top two didn’t give her much of a leg to stand on in terms of the stewards’ inquiry. Additionally, this filly’s speed ratings came back at 78 in both dirt races. Regular rider Ben Curtis has the call. I want to like this filly, and a minor placing wouldn’t be surprising. But I am going to pass.

Pashmina set sensible early fractions in the Untapable Stakes but had to steady between Luv Your Neighbor and Hit Parade as the top two engaged. Despite the mishap, she continued on for third place. The Rob Atras filly’s speed ratings are on the low side, and even her 10-length maiden score netted only an 82 late-pace rating. Also by Constitution, Pashmina is the first foal out of the multiple stakes-placed sprinter-miler Panthera Onca (Super Saver). The dam’s half-sister bore Grade 1-winning turf horse and sire Mo Town plus multiple stakes-winning sprinter Justique, a winner on dirt and multiple graded placed on the lawn. Pashmina needs to improve to have a shot. Pass.