Head to Head: Is Blackout Time a vulnerable favorite in Rebel?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Bravaro (8-1)

Scratched

Scratched, entered in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

2. Litmus Test (7-2)

Litmus Test wasn't in the same class as last year's 2-year-old champ, Ted Noffey, or his stablemate Brant, but he showed ability when finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and winning the Los Alamitos Futurity. By Nyquist, Litmus Test is out of the Malibu Moon mare Study Hard. The mare is a full sister to multiple graded winner and sprinter Sweet August Moon. The third dam, Silent Turn, was a multiple stakes winner at distances up to 1 1/16 miles and was Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles. Litmus Test is a large, long-striding colt, but he wings or "paddles" with his left foreleg. The Bob Baffert trainee's Brisnet ratings range from 90 to 102, and Baffert is noted for winning the Rebel with horses making their first start off a layoff. Contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Litmus Test was last seen winning the Los Alamitos Futurity. Before that, he was fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), third in the Breeders’ Futurity and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Since the Los Alamitos Futurity, runner-up Blacksmith has broken his maiden, and fourth-place finisher Acknowledgemeplz was third in the San Vicente (G2) and seventh in the Saudi Derby (G3) in his next two starts. Each of Litmus Test’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have been 90-plus, including a career- and field-best 102 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Flavien Prat, who was aboard in the Breeders’ Futurity, has the mount. Contender.

3. Class President (10-1)

Class President improved to finish a clear second in the Swale Stakes to Solitary Dude, who is entered in the Fountain of Youth. It wasn't a bad effort for his second start, and Todd Pletcher's charge improved his speed rating to 93, with a strong 98 late-pace figure. Uncle Mo's son is half to American Speed, a stakes-placed miler. Their dam, Top Quality, is a multiple stakes-winning miler and Grade 3-placed at 1 1/8 miles. Class President had a recent four-furlong move in company with Jackson Hole, who is entered in the Fountain of Youth. Class President was on the inside and athletically cut the corner, but he turns his head sideways when he's near other horses. The stablemates were fairly evenly matched. Live long shot.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Class President ships in from Florida after a runner-up effort in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Swale winner Solitude Dude also is testing the distance waters in the Fountain of Youth. Class President has only one other start, a debut win going a mile at Gulfstream Park. The Uncle Mo colt has a career-best 93 speed rating, and jockey John Velazquez travels with him. Exotics.

4. Blackout Time (8-5)

Blackout Time wasn't in Ted Noffey's class in the Breeders' Futurity, but he bested Litmus Test. Not This Time's son is the third foal out of the Grade 3-winning turf router Beauty Parlor. Blackout Time's female family is turf-oriented and, besides numerous European group winners, includes Enola Gay, who set a stakes record of 1:33.97 in the Appalachian Stakes (G2). The Ken McPeek trainee's speed ratings improved in his three starts to 93, and he fired a bullet five-furlong move in 1:00 around mid-February. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Blackout Time will make his first start since finishing second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity. The son of Not This Time was set to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but was scratched by regulatory veterinarians because they didn’t like how he was moving in the days leading up to the race. Bone scans revealed no significant concerns, and Blackout Time by all indications has been training well since. McPeek is 16% wins with a 41% in-the-money clip with runners racing off a two- to six-month layoff in the last year, and regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. is back in the saddle. Contender.

5. Honey's to Blame (20-1)

Honey's to Blame improved in each start and enters on a two-race win streak. He refused to lose an allowance optional claiming event in his last start, but was timed in a slow 1:46.13 for 1 1/16 miles and earned a career-best 82 speed figure. Blame's son is half to the Group 2-winning turf sprinter Black Forza, and their dam is stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles on the lawn. Their dam is half to the Grade 2-winning sprinter California Nectar. Honey's to Blame is a nice colt with a decent pedigree, but his speed ratings are in the low 80s, along with his late-pace figures, so he'll need to improve to have a shot. Pass.

Also from the McPeek barn, Honey’s to Blame was seventh on debut at Saratoga and then third in a pair of turf races. McPeek then shipped the colt to Oaklawn and dropped him into a maiden event for Arkansas-breds, and Honey’s to Blame responded with an emphatic 5 3/4-length win going six furlongs. McPeek put the son of Blame back into open company for his most recent start, and he won the 1 1/16-mile race by a determined head, beating a field of maiden winners. The field Honey’s to Blame debuted against produced a couple of stakes-placed runners, but nothing extraordinary. The colt’s best Brisnet Speed Rating is the 82 he earned last out. Emmanuel Esquivel has the return call. Pass.

6. Strategic Risk (12-1)

Strategic Risk jumped out of Florida-bred company into the Smarty Jones and benefited from a soft pace. So what happened in the Southwest? The Mark Casse trainee stopped in the stretch of the Southwest like he was tied to the rail. The final time of the Southwest was similar to his final time at Gulfstream in the In Reality stakes. By Grade 1 winner Noble Bird, Strategic Risk's full sister, Strategic Bird, is a multiple stakes winner. She and their other full brother, Just Relax, earned black type as juveniles. Second dam Strategy also placed as a juvenile and is a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. The third dam, Educated Risk, was a multiple graded winner from age 2 to 5, including two Grade 1 victories. She was a half to the 1996 champion mare Inside Information. I think Strategic Risk is better than his Southwest performance, and I'm willing to give him another shot. Exotics.

Trained by Mark Casse, Strategic Risk finished a puzzling 10th in the Southwest last out after having won the Smarty Jones in his prior start. Laurie, you asked what happened. According to an Oaklawn news release, Casse indicated that the colt’s performance may have been impacted by the winter storm that closed the track for training for nine days and delayed the Southwest by six days. Assistant trainer Caden Arthur further explained that they put a little easier work into him prior to the Southwest, and coupled with the missed training, that wasn’t the best for the colt’s racing fitness. In looking at Strategic Risk’s work patterns, you can certainly tell that Casse has tightened the screws on the colt, with his lone published work entering this race nearly three seconds faster than the one prior to the Southwest. Javier Castellano retains the mount. I’ve taken this risk twice now and am 1-for-2. I’m going to try to make it 2-for-3 and at least play him for exotics, if not for the win.

7. Silent Tactic (9-2)

Silent Tactic closed for second behind stablemate Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones, then turned the tables in the Southwest. He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.85, with a sharp 6.12 final half-furlong, leaving Soldier N Diplomat 3 1/4 lengths behind. Silent Tactic improved his speed rating to 92. By first -crop sire Tacitus, Silent Tactic is out of the Gun Runner mare Magical Sign who is half to the multiple graded-placed miler Moraz. Silent Tactic's third dam, rene-de-course Macoumba, bore perennial leading sire Malibu Moon. Mark Casse gave Silent Tactic a recent sharp 47.2 four-furlong move. Contender.

Also trained by Casse, Silent Tactic never has been worse than second in four career starts despite racing on two surfaces. He began his career with a win on Woodbine’s Tapeta surface and then was a close second in the Grey Stakes (G3). He successfully switched to traditional dirt, closing from last to finish second to stablemate Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones and win the Southwest (G3). He doesn’t need a torrid pace to be effective, and Cristian Torres retains the mount. Contender.

8. Rancho Santa Fe (12-1)

Rancho Santa Fe improved in his second start off the layoff in the Southwest. He closed late for fourth place in a mad scramble with Soldier N Diplomat and Butane for the photo for second. Rancho Santa Fe came out on the losing end and was awarded fourth place and an 88 speed rating for his effort. Tapit's son is half to Grade 3-winning miler Heroic Move, who won multiple listed stakes up to 1 1/8 miles. Their dam, Family Tree (Smart Strike), is a multiple graded winner at 1 1/16 miles and was third in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama (G1). The third dam is the multiple graded-winning sprinter Gold Mover. The Brad Cox trainee closed in his last two starts but won at the start of his career as a pacesetter and presser. A return to that style might get him to the winner's circle. Exotics.

Trained by Brad Cox, Rancho Santa Fe was unlucky to miss second in the Southwest (G3) last out, losing the placing by a head and a nose after pressing the pace from mid-pack. I mentioned prior to that race that after seeing his run in the Smarty Jones, I felt that a return to his former front-running style would improve his form. And although his finish did improve, it still wasn’t what we saw from him as a juvenile. Cox is switching the colt to jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. after previously using Florent Geroux and Flavien Prat, which I think is a positive change for the colt. I believe Ortiz will get Rancho Santa Fe more forwardly placed. Cox and Ortiz are 26% wins with a 58% in-the-money rate together in the last year, according to Race Lens. Exotics.

9. Time for Music (30-1)

Time for Music was out of tune in his last two starts, finishing a combined 35 1/4 lengths out of it, and his form is a mess. He flashed minor ability last year against maidens and optional claimers, but his highest speed rating was an 87. Not This Time's son is out of the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bling on the Music. Pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Time for Music was last seen finishing seventh, 21 lengths behind winner Honey’s to Blame, in an optional claimer. He was also ninth, beaten by 14 1/4 lengths, in the Remington Springboard Mile. The top finishers from that race have maintained good form, albeit at second-tier tracks. Keith Asmussen gets the return call. Pass.

10. Soldier N Diplomat (10-1)

Soldier N Diplomat is tough, but he has lost ground in both starts beyond a mile. Not surprising, considering his sprinter's pedigree. The Steve Asmussen trainee changed his pacesetting-pressing tactic to rally from off the pace in the Southwest, which helped. By Army Mule, Soldier N Diplomat is out of the unraced Violence mare Diplomatic Miss. Soldier N Diplomat's second dam is the multiple graded-winning sprinter, Miraculous Miss. Soldier N Diplomat has sprinter-miler breeding and runs upright; he doesn't lower his head when he runs. Soldier N Diplomat returned from the Southwest with a bullet five-furlong move in 1:01.60. Exotics.

Also from the Asmussen barn, Soldier N Diplomat won the three-way photo for second in the Southwest (G3) off a slight layoff. Two starts back, he looked like a winner at the top of the lane in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) but couldn’t finish the job, settling for third. Laurie made keen observations about that and summed his style up neatly. Jose Ortiz has the return call. Since we’re still going just 1 1/16 miles, it’s worth playing him in the lower exotics.