Head to Head: Is Bella Ballerina unbeatable Saturday?

Laurie

Ashlely

1. Miss Metoyer (20-1)

Miss Metoyer sandwiched a pair of disastrous outings in a minor stakes and an experiment on turf between two clear victories. Both wins came from pacesetting trips. The Benard Chatters trainee’s speed ratings are low, and although she has speed on the rail, she doesn’t look fast enough on paper to be a threat when the real running begins. Pass.

Trained by Benard Chatters, Miss Metoyer sandwiched a pair of losses between a debut win and a runaway victory in an optional claimer, both at Delta Downs. In her two losses, the filly was fifth in the My Trusty Cat Stakes at Delta Downs, beaten by 12 lengths, and sixth in an optional claimer on turf at Fair Grounds, beaten by seven lengths. Miss Metoyer exited her last-out win with a career-high 82 Brisnet Speed Rating. Though he’s multiple graded-stakes-placed, Chatters never has won a graded stakes; his most recent graded starter was Quiet as Midnight, who finished 13th in the 2023 Risen Star (G2). Regular jockey Edward Santiago also never has won a graded stakes but is a multiple stakes-winning jockey since beginning his career in 2023. Pass.

2. Newtown Pike (8-1)

Newtown Pike just missed winning the Martha Washington Stakes by a neck in a thrilling four-way battle to the wire. She took the overland route while the winner, Search Party, saved ground. It was a strong effort for her second start off the layoff, and her Brisnet rating improved to 88 with an 89 late pace figure. The Lindsay Schultz trainee will benefit if there’s a fast pace. Exotics.

Trained by Lindsay Schultz, Newtown Pike enters off a neck loss to Search Party in the Martha Washington Stakes. Despite a 3: 1-2-0 record, Newtown Pike has been let go at long odds in each start. Two fillies from Newtown Pike’s debut were next-out winners, and two more since have had their picture taken. The two fillies who have beaten Newtown Pike are both stakes winners. In fact, Newtown Pike turned the tables on Counting Stars in the Martha Washington after losing to her in the Year’s End Stakes. Counting Stars, second, in turn outfinished Martha Washington winner Search Party, fourth, in the Honeybee. Newtown Pike’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, culminating with an 88 in the Martha Washington. Schultz is 13% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Francisco Arrieta picks up the mount from Abel Cedillo. Long-shot exotics.

3. Maximum Offer (8-1)

Maximum Offer is cross-entered in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. Fresh off her maiden victory, Maximum Offer flattened out a little in the Martha Washington but was part of the late tussle and missed by a length. Although she equaled her maiden Brisnet rating of 87, her late-pace figure regressed 11 points. The Kenny McPeek trainee can regroup for her third start off the layoff and likely will press the pace. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Maximum Offer was last seen finishing fourth in the Martha Washington at Oaklawn. The daughter of Maxfield had the lead in the stretch but flattened out to be beaten for it all by just a length. Maximum Offer’s two races at Oaklawn were her strongest, and she received an 87 speed rating for both. Brian Hernandez Jr. picks up the mount from regular rider Emmanuel Esquivel. Long-shot exotics.

4. Luv Your Neighbor (7-2)

Luv Your Neighbor has done just that in her last four starts, missing the photo by a head, neck and twice by a half-length. She drifted in the stretch in response to the crop in the Silverbulletday Stakes and stayed a measured neck behind Taken By The Wind.  The Michael Stidham trainee poked a nose in front of Bella Ballerina in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) after adding blinkers but again deferred when that one came back to win by a half-length. Exotics.

Trained by Michael Stidham, Luv Your Neighbor has played the bridesmaid in her last four starts, including in all three previous Kentucky Oaks preps hosted by Fair Grounds. In her other two starts, Luv Your Neighbor won on debut in the slop at Colonial and then was nowhere to be seen in the Glorious Song Stakes over Woodbine’s Tapeta surface. Untapable winner Hit Parade, who bested Luv Your Neighbor by a head, since has finished fifth in the Martha Washington and fourth in the Virginia Oaks. Taken by the Wind, who won the Silverbulletday over Luv Your Neighbor by a neck, won the Pocahontas (G3) in her previous start but was eighth in the Honeybee last out. Most recently, Luv Your Neighbor was beaten by a half-length in the Rachel Alexandra by the undefeated Bella Ballerina. At some point, the daughter of Constitution is going to have her day, but whether it’s this day remains to be seen. Still, she has been game in every dirt race. Luis Saez has the return call from the Rachel Alexandra. Contender.

5. Bella Ballerina (7-5)

Bella Ballerina puts her 3-for-3 record on the line. She hopes to follow in the hoofprints of her champion half-sister Pretty Mischievous, who won this race in 2023 as well as the Kentucky Oaks. The Brendan Walsh trainee showed courage in her first start of the season while pinned on the rail in the Rachel Alexandra, fighting back and inching forward to beat Luv Your Neighbor. Contender.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Bella Ballerina has not put a hoof wrong. She is undefeated in three starts with each race at a different track. With her victories in the Golden Rod (G2) and Rachel Alexandra, she’s 2-for-2 at 1 1/16-miles. The Godolphin homebred’s speed rating declined by only two points last out and first off the layoff, and the 91 she received in the Golden Rod is the highest dirt speed in the field. She showed heart last out in battling back for the victory after being headed in the stretch. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount. The one to beat.

6. Life of Joy (4-1)

Life of Joy wasn’t a match for the undefeated Zany in Tampa’s Suncoast Stakes in her first start off the layoff. Life of Joy battled between rivals with Zany to her outside, but in the end settled for a clear second place. The Brad Cox trainee earned an 87 Brisnet rating with a career-high 97 late-pace figure. She’s had a pair of five-furlong works at Payson Park, including a last-out bullet. Gun Runner’s daughter is out of the stakes-placed turf miler Jordans Leo (Mailbu Moon), so Life of Joy should improve with distance and maturity. Exotics.

Trained by Brad Cox, Life of Joy enters off a runner-up effort to highly regarded Zany in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. As a juvenile, Life of Joy won the Rags to Riches Stakes but was then fourth, three lengths behind Bella Ballerina, in the Golden Rod (G2). The daughter of Gun Runner broke her maiden on debut, winning a mile event at Horseshoe Indianapolis by 14 3/4 lengths. Life of Joy’s speed ratings have consistently been around 87, and she’s acquitted herself well against good company despite her humble start. Flavien Prat has the return call from the Suncoast. Exotics.

7. Love and Trust (9-2)

Love and Trust set slow early fractions in her second start, had a clear lead in the stretch despite ducking from the crop, and won without being challenged The Cherie DeVaux trainee’s 97 late-pace figure is the highest in the Oaks field, but she’ll likely have more experienced company on the front end. Pass.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Love and Trust was fourth on debut. Runner-up Goodall was a next-out winner and then followed that up with a victory in the Purple Martin Stakes at Oaklawn. Love and Trust won at second asking when stretching out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Her Brisnet Speed Rating improved from an 82 to an 87, putting her firmly in the mix numbers-wise. Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for her prior two starts, has the return call. Exotics.