Head to Head: Heavyweights collide in Florida Derby

Laurie

Ashley

1. Albus (20-1)

Albus is coming along the right way. He didn’t show much as a 2-year-old, but he matured to win his 3-year-old debut, galloping home by 6 3/4 lengths. Albus might find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range. So far, Yaupon’s offspring are distance-challenged, with one winner from six starters at 1 1/16 miles. That was Crown the Buckeye, who gave it his best shot in the Gun Runner Stakes and was third, beaten by 3/4 length. Albus is a half-brother to Song of Spring, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. His dam Adream (Bernardini), is a half-sister to Grade 1 winning sprinter Dream Rush, who bore three black-type earners, including Grade 1 heroine Dreaming of Julia, who, in turn, bore two-time champ Malathaat.  Albus might have a promising future, but taking on more experienced heavy hitters in his first start against winners is a lot to ask. Pass.

Trained by Riley Mott, Albus earned his first victory in his third start after finishing fourth at Keeneland and third at Churchill Downs. The victory came with a drop in class and a trip to Tampa Bay Downs, and Albus won the 1 mile, 40 yard  race by 6 3/4 lengths. The colt’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, culminating with an 87 last out. Confessional, the winner of Albus’s debut race, most recently was third in the Virginia Derby after a disappointing seventh in the Sam F. Davis. Liberty National, the winner of Albus’s second race, was second in the Gun Runner next out and most recently fifth in the Southwest (G3). Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount from Sammy Camacho. Pass.

2. Chief Wallabee (2-1)

In his first start against winners, Chief Wallabee gave the more experienced Commandment all he could handle in the Fountain of Youth (G2). While Commandment cut the corner around the far turn, Chief Wallabee had to go three wide. His 12.90 final furlong was strong, and his internal fractions for the last three furlongs were a tick faster than Commandment’s, according to Equibase’s GPS chart. Chief Wallabee should handle classic distances. Constitution's son is out of the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare A La Lucie. His second dam is the Grade 3-winning sprinter Gloryzapper, and the third generation includes a pair of black-type-earning sprinter-milers. Bill Mott gave Chief Wallabee a last-out five-furlong breeze in company with maiden winner Steel at Payson Park. The pair traveled comfortably without being asked, with Chief Wallabee about a half-length in front. He turned his head in the stretch slightly to watch Steel but straightened out once he realized that one wasn’t a threat. Steel was hustled past the wire, but Chief Wallabee did the work without being asked, finishing up in 1:02.20 and galloping out several lengths ahead. Contender. 

Trained by Bill Mott, Chief Wallabee was an impressive second in the Fountain of Youth last out in only his second career start. He then was flattered when The Puma, whom Chief Wallabee beat in his debut, won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) after finishing third in the Sam F. Davis. Chief Wallabee earned a 103 Brisnet Speed Rating, up from the 96 he received for his debut. Mott obviously liked what he was working with as he took him straight to graded company off that maiden win. He tends to be more conservative than that with his runners and doesn’t typically get first-out winners. Regular rider Junior Alvarado, who won the Kentucky Derby for Mott with Sovereignty last year, has the return call. Contender.

3. Wayne's Law (15-1)

Wayne's Law showed promise as a 2-year-old and improved further in his first start at 3. He got a little tired in the Sam F. Davis after setting the pace but wasn’t disgraced by his runner-up finish, and his Brisnet rating improved to 92 with a 99 late-pace figure. Wayne's Law’s pedigree is borderline for 1 1/8 miles. Tiz the Law’s son is a half to restricted stakes-placed sprinter Sea Art. One half-sibling placed at 1 1/8 miles, and their dam Mollie Merisa (Harlan’s Holiday) won once as a sprinter. Her half-sister is a stakes-placed miler. Amador Sanchez gave Wayne’s Law a sharp second-to-last five-furlong work in 59.40, second best of the day. Wayne's Law should progress in his second start and might hang on for a minor award. Exotics.

Trained by Amador Merei Sanchez, Wayne’s Law enters off a surprising runner-up effort in the Sam F. Davis at odds of 48-1. Before that, Wayne’s Law had two wins at Gulfstream, one against state-bred maidens and the other in the one-mile Aventura Stakes. Sandwiched between the Aventura and the Sam F. Davis was a third-place effort in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. Sanchez never has won a graded stakes race and is 18% in the money in graded stakes over the last five years, per Race Lens. The son of Tiz the Law gets brownie points for beating The Puma, but that one is improving. Regular rider Marcos Meneses has the mount. Pass.

4. Commandment (5-2)

What can I say about Commandment? Other than his debut, he’s defeated all comers. He had to work for the Fountain of Youth victory in his first start around two turns, so we know he won’t back down in a fight. Brad Cox gave him a pre-race bullet five-furlong breeze in company last year’s Gotham (G3) winner Flood Zone at Payson Park. Neither was asked, and they galloped out together in a workmanlike fashion. Commandment should handle 1 1/8 miles. Into Mischief's son is out of 2018 Spinaway (G1) heroine Sippican Harbor (by Orb). There are multiple black-type earners in the family, including listed winner Crudo; Grade 3-placed Bodacious Babe, who bore multiple graded winner; Royal Spa, a graded winner at 1 1/16 miles and placed at 1 1/8 miles. Commandment has tactical speed, and his speed ratings have improved in each start. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Commandment gave this year’s edition of the Mucho Macho Man relevance by winning the Fountain of Youth (G2) last out. I have to say that he got a dream trip. He tucked in right behind the early leaders, and when it came time for the serious running, the rail opened up like the Red Sea had been parted. He then had enough gas in the tank to hold off Chief Wallabee in the stretch. I wasn’t sold on Commandment, despite his solid Brisnet Speed Rating, in the Fountain of Youth because of the poor performances of others exiting the Mucho Macho Man. BUt Commandment took his 96 from January and turned it into a 103 in the Fountain of Youth as he continues to improve. Regular jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has opted to ride Renegade in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby instead, leaving Flavien Prat to pick up the mount. Contender.

5. Redland Rebels (15-1)

Redland Rebels was scratched in favor of Arkansas Derby (G1).

6. Nearly (3-1)

Like Commandment, Nearly has destroyed the competition, with his perfect record marred only by his debut. He wasn’t seriously challenged in the stretch of the Holy Bull (G3) despite dueling through quick early fractions, but he was one tired horse, completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.52 and completing his final half-furlong in 7.0. Not This Time’s son is the second foal out of Ib Prospecting (by Mindshaft). The dam is half to multiple stakes-winning miler Frolic’s Revenge. The second and third dams, Stormy Frolic, Lindsay Frolic and Cherokee Frolic, are all multiple stakes winners and black-type producers. Todd Pletcher tightened the screws with a pair of bullet five-furlong moves, including his last one in company with allowance winner Pursuitneversleeps. Nearly passed his mate easily near the wire and opened up, and the rider had a tight hold on him the entire way, being clocked in 1:01.10. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nearly is 3-for-3 at Gulfstream Park, including a dominant victory in the Holy Bull. He won those three races by a combined 20 lengths. Incredibolt flattered Nearly’s Holy Bull victory by bouncing back from a last-place effort to win the Virginia Derby by four lengths next out. Holy Bull runner-up Bravaro was a well-beaten fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) next out. Nearly’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, culminating with a 99 for the Holy Bull. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Contender.

7. Timeless Victory (20-1)

Eddie Plesa Jr., might have discovered the key to Timeless Victory. He’s one-paced and needs to be close to the lead in the stretch. He already is a winner at 1 1/8 miles, although he didn’t beat much while being aggressively ridden through a final time of 1:52.56 with a 13.37 final furlong. He earned a career-high 88 speed rating and a 100 late-pace figure. By My Standard’s son is the first foal out of the unraced Nyquist mare Memento. Timeless Victory’s second dam is a multiple stakes winning spinter-miler, and third dam Smolensk was a multiple group-winning sprinter-miler in France. Pass.

Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., Timeless Victory is another Gulfstream specialist with a combined record of 5: 3-0-2 over the dirt and Tapeta courses. Last out, the son of By My Standards won a 1 1/8-mile optional claimer by six lengths. But two starts back, Timeless Victory was beaten soundly by Nearly. In looking through the previous fields Timeless Victory has faced, I did not find any serious competition. Plesa has 14% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, with Maryquitecontrary accounting for four of seven starts. Regular rider Jose Morelos has the return call. Pass.

8. The Puma (9-2)

From comments on HRN and social media, many consider The Puma their wise-guy horse. He was wide the entire way in the Tampa Bay Derby and was a little green, bearing in and bumping with Canaletto. The Gustavo Delgado earned a 93 Brisnet rating and the same late-pace figure. The Puma should handle 1 1/8 miles. Leading second-crop sire Essential Quality has three starters, with one placed at 1 1/8 miles. The Puma is the first foal out of the Grade 3-placed turf miler Eve of War (Declaration of War). Class skips to the third dam, multiple Grade 3 winner, Bedankin, who was successful from sprints to 1 3/16 miles on turf and dirt. Exotics.

Despite not breaking his maiden until last out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), The Puma hasn’t run a bad race and has kept solid company. He was second to Fountain of Youth (G2) runner-up Chief Wallabee in his debut. He was then third in the Sam F. Davis, and the winner, Renegade, has been made the 3-2 morning line favorite for the Arkansas Derby. Delgado has only 7% wins with a 37% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years, with The Puma giving him his first win since Mage won the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Regular rider Javier Castellano has the mount. Exotics.

9. Gregarious (50-1) 

Gregarious completes the field as the “Why?” horse. On the plus side, he has a start at 1 1/8 miles. On the minus side, he was no match for the winner and earned a 55 late-pace figure. Gregarious has the pedigree to handle middle distances. Mo Town’s son is the fourth foal out of a Mineshaft mare. None of his half-siblings won beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, but Gregarious is the first to try two turns. Class in the female family skips to the third dam, multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter-miler Raging Fever. Pass.

Trained by Jose Castro, Gregarious enters this spot as a maiden after finishing 5 3/4 lengths behind Autobahn in his debut. Autobahn in turn finished ninth, beaten by 33 lengths, in the Louisiana Derby (G2) next out. Castro never has won a graded-stakes race, and jockey Rajiv Maragh has ridden in a graded stakes race only once in the last year, finishing second in the Hurricane Bertie (G3) with Sterling Silver. Pass.