Head to Head: Ragtime faces test in Churchill Downs feature

Laurie

Ashley

1. Impel (9-2)

2-for-2 at a mile, Impel gets back to her favorite distance after closing in the 6 1/2-furlong Gallant Bloom (G2). Her Brisnet ratings have risen in the last three starts, and she owns a trio of triple-digit late-pace figures to go with them. Brad Cox’s charge does her best work if she’s allowed to settle a length or more off the lead. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Impel is multiple graded-stakes placed and finally nabbed a stakes win two starts back when she won the Groupie Doll at Ellis Park by a head. As Laurie stated, Impel’s speed ratings have improved over her last few starts, and it should be noted that her career-best Brisnet Speed Rating, 95, occurred over the Churchill Downs oval. Regular jockey Florent Geroux has the call. Exotics.

2. Shred the Gnar (5-2)

Shred the Gnar did just that in her last two starts, winning by a combined 13 1/2 lengths with plenty of enthusiasm. This full sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Owendale has improving speed ratings and doesn’t need the lead to win. Sounds good, right? But the Brian Lynch trainee took time off and hasn’t competed since Kentucky Oaks day. Exotics.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Shred the Gnar is a neck away from being undefeated in three starts. This filly’s speed ratings have improved with each start, culminating with a 97 last out. But as Laurie said, she has been off for six months, and Lynch is 6% wins with a 18% in-the-money clip with runners coming off a six-month-plus layoff. Regular rider Luis Saez has the call. Contender.

3. Literate (10-1)

Despite her turf router pedigree, Literate’s strongest performance was a four-length victory in March over optional claimers on the Gulfstream Park dirt at a mile. Now with Brad Cox, Literate could revert to her Gulfstream form. She posted a trio of five-furlong breezes, including a pair in 1:00.80. Literate is best as a pace presser. Live long-shot exotic pick.

Now in the care of Brad Cox, Literate was most recently eighth in the Ontario Matron (G3) over Woodbine’s Tapeta surface. She has hit the board only once (6: 1-0-0) in a stakes race, winning the Trillium (G3) three starts back. In that Gulfstream race Laurie mentioned, Literate beat dual Grade 1 winner and 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine Just F Y I and Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed Gun Song. But Literate contested the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs earlier this year and managed to beat only one runner. So she might have liked Gulfstream Park, but it seems Churchill Downs is a whole other story. Cox is 29% wins with a 59% in-the-money rate with runners making their first start for him after a trainer switch. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Pass.

4. Runaway Diva (20-1)

Runaway Diva has three wins in 15 starts but can be counted on to pick up a check for runner-up positions, especially at a mile. Michelle Hemingway gave her an extra 1/8 mile to play with in the Delaware Handicap. Despite the ground saving trip, Runaway Diva looked like she might win in the stretch, but then was passed by the winner like she was standing still. Runaway Diva held second over the muddy strip to finish a clear second, 6 1/4 lengths behind the winner. She earned a career-best 94 Brisnet rating with a 94 late-pace figure. This filly has tactical speed and always gives her best. Exotics.

Trained by Michelle Hemingway, Runaway Diva most recently was a distant second in the Delaware Handicap (G3) as the second longest shot in the field. She has been adept at picking up checks but has been doing so at lower-tier tracks. Hemingway has never won a graded stakes and is 25% in-the-money with four starters in graded races in the last five years. Jose Ortiz has the mount. Pass.

5. Zadorsky (15-1)

Zadorsky’s form is all over the place. She’s competed mostly in seven-furlong sprints and has been hit or miss. She’s gone 1 1/16 miles and tried a mile on turf. The one standout is that she likes to play in the mud; two of her four lifetime wins were earlier this year at Churchill and Keeneland by a combined 15 1/4 lengths. The Whit Beckman trainee was off form in her last two starts, including a 7 3/4-length loss in an optional claimer behind One Magic Philly. Since a muddy track isn’t in the works, I’ll take a pass.

Trained by Whit Beckman, Zadorsky is 6: 2-0-2 at Churchill Downs but 2: 0-0-0 at the mile distance of the Chilukki. In her last start, she finished 7 3/4 lengths behind One Magic Philly while rounding out the superfecta in a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer at Keeneland. Zadorsky is stakes placed via a distant third in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes at Aqueduct last year, but you never know which version of this filly is going to show up. Joseph Ramos has the mount. Pass.

6. One Magic Philly (3-1)

One Magic Philly started her new job with the Brendan Walsh barn with a one-length victory over optional claimers at Keeneland, earning a 98 Brisnet rating with a 92 late-pace figure. That was her first victory since leaving sunny California, where she racked up three straight victories, including the Chillingworth (G3), where she bested Grade 1 heroine Sweet Azteca. By Good Magic out of a winning daughter of Empire Maker, One Magic Philly is bred for classic distances. Her half-sister My Philly Twirl is a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles over the lawn. One Magic Philly has a trio of progressively quicker four-furlong breezes, a positive indication. Exotics.

Now with Brendan Walsh, One Magic Philly got off to a quick start for her new trainer with a length win in a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer at Keeneland. She’s a Grade 3 winner by virtue of a 2 3/4-length win in the 2024 Chillingworth but was off the board in a trio of attempts in graded stakes since. Although she has classic breeding, she has competed only in sprints except one attempt at a mile in which she finished 5 1/2 lengths behind Splendora in second. But she can typically be counted on to pick up a check. Walsh is 18% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners in the last year. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Flavien Prat. Exotics.

7. Ragtime (8-5)

Never out of the money in five lifetime starts, including a neck defeat in the Test (G1), Ragtime has built a solid career as a seven-furlong specialist. Now Bill Mott gives her an extra furlong to play with after she ran out of real estate in the Raven Run (G2), closing down the lane to miss victory by a half-length, earning a 97 speed rating and a 108 late-pace figure. By Belmont hero Union Rags out of a Grade 2 stakes-winning daughter of Storm Cat, Ragtime should enjoy the extra distance. Her half-siblings have won at 1 1/8 miles over dirt and turf, and her one-run closing style will benefit. Contender.

Trained by Bill Mott, Ragtime was last seen finishing third, missing the win by just a half-length, in the Raven Run (G2) as the favorite. She won the Dogwood (G3) over this track in September and just missed in the Test (G1) at Saratoga in August. Mott adds blinkers to the filly’s equipment and is 14% wins with a 38% in-the-money rate with the blinkers-on angle and 17% wins with a 41% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners in the last year. Regular rider Junior Alvarado has the return call. Contender.