Head to Head: East vs. west in Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Laurie

Ashley

1. Intrepido (8-1)

Intrepido prevailed as the long-shot winner of the American Pharoah (G1) despite being steadied between horses on the first turn and having to bull his way out of a box at the top of the stretch. The Jeff Mullens trainee was one-paced down the stretch but kicked into gear once he saw rivals in front. Intrepido completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.67 with a 6.64 final half-furlong. His Brisnet Speed Rating rose to 99, and his 95 late-pace figure is competitive. Intrepido had a pair of solo maintenance works at Santa Anita leading into the Juvenile. By third-leading third-crop sire Maximus Mischief, Intrepido is the fourth foal and third winner out of the Pleasantly Perfect mare Overly Indulgent, who placed twice in five starts as a sprinter. There are no black-type earners in the first two generations of the distaff line. The third dam, Fortunate Faith, won the Demoiselle (G2) and her son, Z Fortune, captured the Lecomte (G3). Intrepido had problems in all three career starts. He broke slowly in his debut but made up ground to finish fourth. Next out, he won at a mile, opening up by 3 1/4 lengths despite the jock losing the whip. Both starts were at Del Mar. Contender.

Trained by Jeff Mullins, Intrepido was the 9-1 upset winner of the American Pharoah (G1) last out. I had him as an exotics play for that race but left him off my ticket. Big mistake, clearly. Intrepido won his second race while on the pace but showcased the ability to rate successfully in the American Pharoah. He also proved once again that trouble does not deter him, which is excellent to see in a runner this young. His Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, tying for a field-best 99 in his last race. That translated to an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. Mullins never has won a Breeders' Cup race and has just 11% wins with  33% in-the-money clip in grade 1 races in the last five years. Hector Isaac Berrios gets the return call. Contender.

2. Blackout Time (5-1)

After dominating maidens by 9 3/4 lengths at Ellis Park, Blackout Time tailgated the pace with Ted Noffy to his outside. Blackout Time swung to the outside in the stretch and passed Litmus Test, but he was no match for Ted Noffy. The Ken McPeek trainee's Brisnet rating gained a point to 93, and his 97 late-pace figure is decent. By 2016 Juvenile runner-up Not This Time, Blackout Time is the third foal out of the Grade 3-winning turf router Beauty Parlor. Blackout Time's female family is turf-oriented and, besides numerous European group winners, includes Enola Gay, who set a stakes record of 1:33.97 in the Appalachian Stakes. Blackout Time had a pair of maintenance breezes at Churchill. On Oct. 24, he worked four furlongs in 49.40 with the maiden winner So Special. Blackout Time started a few lengths behind. He was tough, in the bridle and ears pinned, but relaxed and passed his mate in the stretch and was much the best. Contender.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Blackout Time was most recently second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Laurie and I both liked his chances in that race, labeling him a contender despite his 10-1 morning line odds. He ran a bang-up race but could not run down Ted Noffey in the stretch. All Blackout Time's Brisnet Speed Ratings have been in the 90s with a career-high 93 in the Breeders' Futurity. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount from Cristian Torres, who replaced the injured Brian Hernandez Jr. McPeek scored his first Breeders' Cup victory with Thorpedo Anna in the Distaff last year, ending a 0-for-37 drought that had seen him notch seven seconds and 10 thirds. Exotics.

3. Mr. A.P. (30-1)

This ridgling recently visited the winner's circle for the first time just 18 days ago. Mr. A.P. tailgated the pace inside horses then tilted outside, still between horses. He dueled to the wire, earning the photo by a nose over the favorite, Cherokee Nation, a $1.5 million Baffert baby, in a one-mile event at Santa Anita. The Vladimir Cerin trainee was timed in 1:38.01, with a 12.95 final furlong, earning a 99 Brisnet rating and a 92 late-pace figure. Previously he was second in both starts at Del Mar, bested 5 1/4 lengths in a $150,000 maiden claiming and 3/4 length by Kristofferson in a maiden special. That one faded like a bad Polaroid to last in the American Pharoah (G1). American Pharoah's son is the second competitor out of the multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter-miler Trenchtown Cat. His half-sister Ibuki has been in the money in six of seven starts at Belterra Park, most recently winning a six-furlong allowance contest by 4 1/2 lengths. Trenchtown Cat's full brother Air Khalifa is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter in Japan, and her full sister Princess Princess is a multiple stakes-placed turf sprinter. Mr. A.P. has good numbers but has a quick turnaround after a tough race while facing an elite group for his first start against winners. For those looking for a "what-the-heck" long shot, there's precedent for a last-out maiden winner succeeding in the Juvenile. New Year's Day scored in 2013 for Baffert. Long-shot exotics.

Trained by Vladimir Cerin, Mr. A. P. debuted in a high-level claiming event where he placed second as the favorite. He was then second in a high-level regular maiden event before finally getting the win in his third start in a $60,000 maiden race at Santa Anita. The son of American Pharoah received 98 and 99 Brisnet Speed Ratings in his last two starts, but the competition he's faced doesn't hold water. His best claim to fame is besting a gelding who went on to win a low-level stakes at Sweetwater Downs. Cerin has one Breeders' Cup victory, sending out Albertus Maximus to victory in the 2008 Dirt Mile. But at the time, the race was non-graded. Cerin has not sent out a runner in a Grade 1 stakes in the last five years. Antonio Fresu has the return call. Pass.

4. Comport (30-1)

Comport has a win-lose form. He won his debut and the Ellis Park Juvenile but was second in the Bashford Manor and Iroquois (G3), although he lost the photo in Iroquois by a head. The Eddie Kenneally trainee's speed ratings are in the low 90s, and his late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the Juvenile. By Collected, Comport is the second foal out of the unplaced Flatter mare Bartlett Narrows, a half-sister to Grade 3-winning miler, Trace Creek. Comport ships and tries two turns for the first time against a stronger group. Pass.

Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Comport never has been out of the exacta. He won the Ellis Park Juvenile and was second in the Bashford Manor and Iroquois (G3). He traded decisions with the speedy Spice Runner in the Ellis Park Juvenile and Iroquois, but then Spice Runner could do no better than fifth in the Breeders' Futurity. Comport's best Brisnet Speed Rating is a 92. Kenneally has never won a Breeders' Cup race and is 17% across the board in Grade 1 events in the last five years. Tyler Gaffalione has the return call. Pass.

5. Civil Liberty (30-1)

Civil Liberty was scratched because of swelling in an upper tendon. Hopefully, we'll see him next year. 

Scratched.

6. Litmus Test (15-1)

After a fourth-place finish behind Brant in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) Litmus Test headed east to the Breeders' Futurity, where he set a moderate, uncontested pace. He ran out of oats at the top of the stretch when Ted Noffy breezed by like Litmus Test was tied to the rail. The Bob Baffert trainee earned a 91 speed rating,but a low 82 late-pace figure. By 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Nyquist, Litmus Test is out of the Malibu Moon mare Study Hard. The mare is a full sister to multiple graded-winner sprinter Sweet August Moon. The third dam, Silent Turn, was a multiple stakes winner at distances up to 1 1/16 miles and was Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles. Litmus Test is a large, long-striding colt, but he wings or "paddles" with his left foreleg and is one-paced. He should mature as a 3-year-old and has classic distance breeding. He had a pre-race five-furlong breeze outside of Bottle of Rouge in 1:00.20 at Santa Anita. The pretty gray filly was pushed near the wire to keep up with Litmus Test, who was galloping along doing his thing. Worth a long-shot exotics look.  

Trained by Bob Baffert, Litmus Test traveled east in order to avoid his stablemates but had no better luck in securing a graded victory. After finishing fourth behind Brant in the Del Mar Futurity, Litmus Test was then third in the Breeders' Futurity. The son of Nyquist earned speed ratings of 90, 92 and 91 in his three starts. Jose Ortiz, who will be the colt's fourth jockey in as many starts, has the mount. Exotics.

7. Brant (5-2) 

Bob Baffert's brilliant speedster Brant gets his first two-turn test in the Juvenile. He skipped the American Pharoah and returns off a 54-day layoff. He earned a 98 speed rating and 94 late-pace figure for his Del Mar Futurity performance and was timed in 1:21.92 with a 12.81 final furlong, while winning by a measured length. Gun Runner's sun is out of the winning Liam's Map mare Tynan. The mare's full brother is the precocious sprinter Pappacap, who captured the 2021 Best Pal (G1) and placed in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and other Grade 1 events. Tynan's half-brother Bobby O won the 2022 With Anticipation (G3) and placed in multiple stakes as a turf miler. Brant's leg action isn't pretty. He has a high knee gait, "turfy" action, and he wings, or paddles, with his left foreleg. Brant has a series of five and six-furlong breezes in the 1:11 to 1:12 range. In his pre-race breeze, the pretty gray colt started inside the older Getaway Car, last seen finishing fourth in the Virginia Derby, and the 2-year-old Surfin Candy, unplaced in both starts. The pair were traveling five furlongs to Brant's six. Brant took up his customary position in front, relaxed and moving easily. He hugged the rail athletically and was asked to pick it up under the wire, where he separated from his rivals. Getaway Car was urged to keep up while Surfin Candy was outclassed. Brant has a high cruising speed despite his leg action. We'll see if he can carry his speed two turns. Contender.

Also from the Baffert barn, Brant is undefeated in two starts, including the Del Mar Futurity. His stablemates and O'Neill's colt garnered two-turn experience in either the American Pharoah or the Breeders' Futurity, but Brant remained in the barn. Baffert said the reason for skipping the traditional prep of the American Pharoah was because of how fast Brant ran in the Del Mar Futurity and the desire to give him extra rest before facing the tougher Breeders' Cup competition. Baffert has 30% wins with a 65% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a one- to two-month layoff and 31% wins with a 63% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. Regular rider Flavien Prat retains the mount. Contender.

8. Ted Noffey (4-5)

Breeders' Cup contenders Blackout Time and Litmus Test were no match for the undefeated dual Grade 1 winner in the Breeders' Futurity. After winning the one-mile Champagne (G1), Ted Noffey passed his two-turn test in style by 2 3/4 lengths. Completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.93 with a 6.55 final half-furlong. His 97 speed rating dropped from the 102 he earned in the Hopeful, but his 100 late-pace rating is the highest in the Juvenile. The Todd Pletcher trainee is comfortable pressing the pace and has push-button action. He is very competitive, pins his ears and takes aim on the horses in front. Into Mischief's son is the second foal out of the multiple graded-placed turf miler Streak of Luck. Class skips to the third dam, multiple stakes-winning miler, Lindsay Jean. Ted Noffey has breezed steadily with several four-furlong works in the 48-49 range over Saratoga's training track. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Ted Noffey is undefeated in three starts, including a 8 1/2-length romp in the Hopeful (G1) and a decisive 2 3/4-length victory in the Breeders’ Futurity. The son of Into Mischief received only an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut, but that number jumped to a 102 in the Hopeful and a 97 in the Breeders’ Futurity. If you are a Beyer Speed Figure person, Ted Noffey was assigned a 98 for the Hopeful and a 97 for the Breeders’ Futurity, the second-best figure for a two-turn race posted by a 2-year-old this year. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Contender.