Head to Head: Differing views on large Remsen field

Laurie

Ashley

1. Day One Starter

After dominating maidens by 4 1/2 lengths, Day One Starter had a wide trip as the even-money favorite in the one-mile Nashua and ran out of oats in the stretch, checking in 10 lengths behind My World and earning a dismal 70 Brisnet figure. Shug McGaughey breezed Day One Starter a bullet four furlongs in 47.30 in his second-to-last work, always a positive sign from a conservative trainer. Upstart’s son is a half to two Grade 3 turf sprinter-milers, Summer to Remember and Stunning Princess. The extended family includes Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Believe You Can. One Day Starter’s pedigree indicates 1 1/8 miles is within his range. Race Lens shows Upstart’s offspring have a 14% win rate at 1 1/18 miles, and further, and one of Day One Starter’s half-siblings won at 1 1/8 miles. Day One Starter has high knee action, and his breeding suggests he might wind up on the lawn eventually. Although McGaughey is seeking his record fifth Remsen victory, and I’d like to see him extend it, I must pass.

Trained by Shug McGaughey, Day One Starter has one win from three starts, and his only victory came when he set the pace. He was sixth on debut, finishing behind eventual stakes placed Stradale. He won at second asking, and so far that field has not produced a winner. Day One Starter was most recently third, beaten by 10 3/4 lengths as the even-money favorite, in the Nashua Stakes. His Brisnet Speed Rating dipped from a career-best 85 to a career-worst 70 in the Nashua. Although the rail post is winning at a 34% clip, Day One Starter will need to show a lot more here. Junior Alvarado will be the colt’s fourth jockey in as many starts. Pass.

2. Paladin

Paladin showed tenacity in his debut, pressing the pace on the outside then taking over in the stretch. He dug in when Renegade challenged to his inside and stubbornly kept his nose in front. Technically, Paladin lost his debut by a head to the more experienced Renegade, but Renegade came over a few paths, bumping and pushing Paladin out, so Paladin earned his debut victory via disqualification. The Chad Brown trainee completed a mile in 1:36.11 with a sharp 11.92 final furlong. He earned a Brisnet rating of 91 and a late-pace figure of 100. Gun Runner’s son is the third foal out of the unraced Secret Sigh (Tapit), and he has classic-distance breeding. Paladin’s second dam India was a multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler and was a half-sister to Pilfer, dam of Grade 1 winner To Honor and Serve, who captured the 2010 Remsen, plus his half-sister Grade 1 heroine Angela Rene, who won the 2014 Demoiselle. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Paladin crossed the wire second in his debut but was awarded the win when Renegade was disqualified for interference inside the final sixteenth. Paladin had been in hand and moving easily, but Renegade was showing the better turn of foot in deep stretch. However, Renegade drifted out and leaned on and bumped Paladin, resulting in a head margin at the wire. I don’t think we saw Paladin’s absolute best as Flavien Prat went to work on him late. Brown has Paladin on a similar path as Sierra Leone in his early career, and the Gun Runner colt received a 91 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut. Prat has the return call. Contender.

3. I Did I Did

After graduating in his third start in pacesetting style, I Did I Did took on winners in the Street Sense (G3). Racing wide the entire way, the Mike Maker trainee engaged the leaders around the far turn but seemed confused. He stopped his forward momentum and was going up and down, a sign that his mind was elsewhere. He backed off the leaders, then wandered over to bump the passing Incredibolt. I Did I Did got his brain in gear late and surged forward but was passed late for third place. I Did I Did appeared to be feeling his way along because of the blinkers. Despite the fourth-place finish, his Brisnet rating improved to 88. Curlin’s cleverly named son is out of the listed-placed sprinter, Ithinkisawapudycat (Bluegrass Cat). I Did I Did is half to Grade 1-winning sprinter Sweet Loretta,plus the stakes-placed sprinters Bold Connection and Bridlewood Cat. All of the black-type earners in I Did I Did’s immediate family are fillies. None of his half-siblings won beyond 1 1/16 miles, but a couple placed at 1 1/8 miles. I Did I Did could regroup, but I’m passing.

Trained by Mike Maker, I Did I Did has one win from four career starts. The runner-up from his debut race and winner of his second race, Blackout Time, went on to run second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1); I Did I Did was fifth in their debut and second in their second meeting. I Did I Did then won at third asking, winning a 1 1/16-mile event by 1 1/2 lengths in the slop. The Curlin colt was most recently fourth in the Street Sense; runner-up Universe also was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) next out, and third-place finisher Very Connected was fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. I Did I Did received an 80 speed rating for both his second and third starts and an 88 for the Street Sense (G3). Joel Rosario takes over from Irad Ortiz Jr., who will ride Renegade instead. Exotics.

4. Grittiness

Grittiness can’t catch a break. He had trouble in his debut and didn’t run much, finishing a distant sixth behind our likely 2-year-old champ, Ted Noffey. Then Grittiness raced wide and again finished sixth, behind the eventual multiple graded-placed Universe. The Todd Pletcher trainee faced three rivals in his last start and still found trouble. He was mugged at the start with rivals bumping and squeezing him on both sides, causing him to steady. Then he steadied again behind stablemate Courting on the backstretch. Finally getting daylight in the stretch, Grittiness closed to grab second but was no match for Courting. He earned only a 70 Brisnet rating, but a 92 late-pace figure. Curlin’s son is out of Grade 2 heroine Coach Rocks (Oxbow), who placed in the Black-Eyed Susan (G3) at 1 1/8 miles. Coach Rocks is half to the multiple Grade 3-winning turf router, O’Prado Ole. The extended family includes Dixie City, winner of the 2010 Demoiselle. A hard-luck horse since his debut, Grittiness has very high knee action. He’s shown potential, and perhaps his new blinkers will help. Exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Grittiness is still a maiden after three attempts. He was sixth on debut, 7 3/4 lengths behind presumed champion Ted Noffey. He also was sixth in his second start, nine lengths behind Street Sense and Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Universe. Grittiness most recently was second, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths, to Courting. Pletcher adds blinkers and is 13% wins with a 43% in-the-money rate with first time blinkers over the last year. It did take dam Coach Rocks seven starts to finally break her maiden, so I’m thinking we won’t see this colt’s best until after he turns 3. Jaime Rodriguez will be his fourth jockey in as many starts, and Rodriguez and Pletcher don’t have any starts together in the last year, according to Race Lens. Pass.

5. Chambersville

Chambersville makes his initial dirt start after beating maidens at 1 1/8 miles on Keeneland’s lawn. After tracking the early pace, he moved to the outside. He hesitated until a rival to his inside moved away. Then Chambersville regrouped and surged to win by a length. The Kenny McPeek trainee’s Brisnet rating and late-pace figures are 79. Twirling Candy’s son is half to the multiple graded turf sprinter-miler Bubble Rock. Perhaps Chambersville will show improvement in his first dirt start, but I’ll pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Chambersville will make his dirt debut in the Remsen. The son of Twirling Candy is a proven two-turn runner with a nose loss going 1 1/16 miles and a length victory last out at the Remsen distance of nine furlongs. McPeek is 23% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with turf-to-dirt runners over the last year. Distance obviously isn’t a concern, but I don’t love the speed figures, a 72, 83, and 79. Christopher Elliot takes over from Irad Ortiz. Pass.

6. Courting

In his second start, Courting ran to his pedigree. He grabbed the lead, turned back a tepid challenge and won easily by 2 1/2 lengths, completing a mile in 1:36 with a 12:05 final furlong without being seriously threatened. Surprisingly, Todd Pletcher’s charge received only a 73 speed rating but owns a 94 late-pace figure. Curlin’s son is out of the multiple Grade 1 heroine Cavorting, and he is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Clairiere, multiple graded-placed Judge Miller and half to stakes winner La Crete. As an interesting note, although Courting is a chestnut and big sis Clairiere a bay, they have similar facial markings. Courting is professional and has the pedigree to be something special. Contender.

Also from the Pletcher barn, Courting was fourth on debut while rallying from the rear of the field. He finished 2 1/4 lengths behind winner Igniter. The full brother to Clairiere won at second asking, going out for the lead instead of lingering at the back of the field. He drew off to win by 2 1/2 lengths over Grittiness. Unfortunately, the colt’s Brisnet Speed Rating dropped from an 85 to a 73. As a lifelong Clairiere fan, I want to love Courting, but he’s going to have to show me more. I do appreciate regular rider John Velazquez sticking with him, though. Pass.

7. Igniter

Igniter pressed the pace in his second start and was all out to win by a length. He completed a mile in 1:35.69 with a 12.86 final furlong, earning an improved 88 speed rating with an 89 late-pace figure. By fifth-leading second-crop sire   Volatile, Igniter is the fourth foal out of Malibu Prayer, winner of the 2010 1 1/8-mile Ruffian (G1). Igniter’s full brother Mickswagger won this year’s Prairie Mile Stakes. Malibu Prayer’s half-brother is Valid, a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. So far, only two of Volatile’s offspring have attempted 1 1/8 miles or further; both were unplaced. Igniter has high knee action and paddles or “wings” his left foreleg. He didn’t switch leads until about a furlong from home. Although this Rick Dutrow Jr. trainee is well-bred, I prefer others. Pass.

Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr., Igniter broke his maiden in his second start after finishing third in his debut. Igniter’s debut race has produced two stakes winners, and his second race produced two next-out winners including Courting. Dutrow is just 13% wins with a 43% in-the-money rate in graded stakes races over the last five years and 0% across-the-board when you narrow that down to just two-year-olds. Igniter’s Brisnet Speed Rating did increase from an 82 to an 88, and regular rider Manny Franco sticks with him. Exotics.

8. Concarneau

After dominating maidens at Parx by 7 1/4 lengths, Concarneau was surprised that he had to run again and was reluctant to load into the starting gate against optional claimers at Laurel. He settled into fourth place on the rail, decided after a half-mile that it was enough for one day and wandered home 27 lengths behind the winner. By First Crop sire Known Agenda, Concarneau is half to the multiple stakes winner,Miss Leslie, who captured the Delaware Handicap (G2) at 1 1/4 miles. Concarneau is his sire’s first foal to attempt 1 1/8 miles. Known Agenda (Curlin) was third in the 2020 Remsen and won the Florida Derby (G1) the following year. The Marya Montoya trainee’s highest speed rating is a 77, and is the Remsen’s “Why?” horse. Pass.

Trained by Marya Montoya, Concarneau has one win from three starts. In his lone victory, the colt went gate-to-wire and won a mile event by 7 1/4 lengths, but he lost his two other races by a combined 40 1/4 lengths. Montoya has never won a graded race and is 33% in-the-money from three starts in graded races over the last five years. Regular jockey Mychel Sanchez retains the mount. Pass.

9. Renegade

In his second start, Renegade settled behind the early pace then threaded narrowly between rivals to engage Paladin, who was to his outside. Renegade couldn’t keep a straight path and bullied his stablemate, resulting in losing his shot in the winner’s circle. Despite this, the Todd Pletcher trainee recorded a 104 late-pace figure, the Remsen’s highest. Into Mischief’s son is the first foal out of Spice is Nice (Curlin), a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Renegade’s second dam, Dame Dorothy, was a Grade 1-winning sprinter who was Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles. Renegade will settle off the pace and has shown a strong closing kick. Contender.

Also from the Pletcher barn, Renegade is still a maiden after two starts despite crossing the wire first last out. Laurie and I have discussed that race already, so I won’t rehash it again here. Renegade showed marked improvement from his first start in which he finished third, 18 1/4 lengths behind winner It’s Our Time who was subsequently fourth in the Champagne (G1) in his next outing. His Brisnet Speed Rating jumped from a 72 to a 91. Irad Ortiz, who was aboard in his debut, has the mount. Contender.

10. Balboa

Balboa couldn’t cut it in Bob Baffert’s barn. But he rewarded his new trainer Brittany Russell with a 5 1/4-length triumph in Laurel Park’s James F. Lewis III Stakes. Balboa splashed six furlongs in 1:11.87 over the muddy track, getting his final furlong in 13.21. Not This Time’s son is out of the winning War Front mare Tap of War. The mare is half to the Grade 1 winning turf miler,Halladay, and the second dam, Hightap, is a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1 1/16 miles. Balboa earned a 91 speed rating, but his late-pace figures are in the 70s. He will be in the mix early but must improve to have a shot. Balboa has high knee action and turf quality in his pedigree. Perhaps he could improve on the lawn. Pass.

Previously trained by Bob Baffert, Balboa will be making his second start for new trainer Brittany Russell. In his first race for his new barn, Balboa dominated the James F. Lewis III Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths. I have wracked my brain, and I cannot think of another trainer switch from Baffert to a more localized trainer. I certainly found it to be an interesting move, especially for a partnership that includes loyal Baffert supporters. But Balboa was clearly not part of the Baffert “A” team, so the move gives the colt a better opportunity for success. Russell is just 9% wins with a 29% in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the past five years but is 0% across the board in 2-year-old graded stakes. Ricardo Santana Jr. will be the colt’s fifth jockey in six starts. Pass.

11. Talkin

Talkin made a couple of moves in the one-mile Champagne Stakes. Wide early, he slipped to the rail for a ground-saving trip around the turn then swung outside of rivals and passed tired rivals. He wasn’t a match for the winner but grabbed second place by 3/4 length. It was a strong effort in his second start, showcasing his athleticism. Danny Gargan’s charge earned a 90 speed rating. His late-pace figures are low, but he has triple-digit Brisnet E2 figures, showing he has a strong mid-race kick. By Good Magic, Talkin is a half to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Jumby Bay and Grade 2-placed Royal Obsession, the dam of this year’s Cotillion Stakes (G1) heroine Clicquot. The second generation of this female family includes the Grade 1-winning turf router Magnificent Song. Exotics.

Trained by Danny Gargan, Talkin won his debut by a neck and then was second in the Champagne in his second start. Further Ado, who was third to Talkin in Talkin’s debut, just immensely flattered Talkin with a 20 length maiden win followed by a 1 3/4-length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club this past weekend. Universe, who was third in the Champagne, retained excellent form with runner-up efforts in the Street Sense and Kentucky Jockey Club. Talkin has the best speed rating in the field with the 92 he earned in his debut, and he followed that up with a 90 in the Champagne. Gargan is 21% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years and a strong 31% wins with a 46% in-the-money clip in juvenile graded stakes. Regular jockey Kendrick Carmouche retains the mount. Contender.

12. Probably Dreaming

Probably Dreaming awoke from his undefeated streak in the Nashua. He tailgated the pace early and lacked racing room at the top of the stretch until pushing Day One Starter out of his way. Probably Dreaming didn’t switch leads until late in the stretch of the Nashua. He tried to challenge My World but had to settle for second-best. The Gary Capuano trainee recorded a 79 speed rating. His E2 and late-pace figures are both 81, indicating he maintained his speed.  Improbable’s son is out of the winning Broken Vow mare Dreaming as Always. The extended distaff line is international. Probably Dreaming’s second dam Leonor Fini was multiple stakes-placed at 1 1/8 miles on the lawn. According to Race Lens, only two of Improbable’s 20 offspring to race 1 1/8 miles or farther have won, and none of Probably Dreaming’s half-siblings have won beyond a mile. Pass.

Trained by Gary Capuano, Probably Dreaming beat up on lesser types in the mid-Atlantic, including winning the First State Dash Stakes for Delaware-breds and the Rocky Run Stakes, both at Delaware Park. He did well when venturing to New York to contest the Nashua, coming up with a runner-up effort. But that was a weaker bunch than he’ll face here, and his Brisnet Speed Ratings have been on the decline. Capuano hasn’t won a graded stakes since the 2005 Salvator Mile (G3) and is just 23% in-the-money in graded stakes in the last five years. Regular jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez, who has never won a graded stakes, retains the mount. Pass.