Head to Head: Consensus pick in the Louisiana Derby

Laurie

Ashley

1. Pavlovian (6-1)

After beating state-bred maidens in June, Pavlovian needed seven more starts to find the winner’s circle again against a weak field in the Sunland Park Derby. He managed to win by a nose, earning a career-best 95 Brisnet rating. Pavlovian may find 1 3/16 miles at the top of his distance range. By Pavel, a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles with only 68 foals of racing age, Pavlovian is the first colt and only black-type earner out of the winning Mandy’s Grace (Bellamy Road). He also is the only one in the immediate family to win around two turns. His second dam was the precocious Grade 2-winning sprinter Magicalmysterycat, and third dam Nannerl was a multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler. Pass.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Pavlovian has spent most of his career facing California-breds. But the two times he stepped into open company were two of his best races: a second in the Best Pal (G3) as a juvenile and a nose victory in the Sunland Park Derby last out. Laurie is right that the field for the Sunland Park Derby was weak. Pavlovian faced five rivals whose combined records stand at 26: 8-5-3. To give credit where credit is due, runner-up Express Kid is no slouch by any means as the runaway winner of the Remington Springboard Mile. Edwin Maldonado has the return call from New Mexico. I don’t see Pavlovian winning this, but he could nab a minor award at a price. Long-shot exotics.

2. Autobahn (8-1)

Autobahn benefited from a blazing early pace in his third start, motoring home by 5 3/4 lengths after chasing a blazing pace. The Brad Cox trainee completed 1 1/8 miles in 1:54.69, crawling his last furlong in 14.87. He earned a career-best 80 Brisnet rating, and his 70 late-pace figure is this field’s lowest. Autobahn should handle the extra distance but might not be fast enough. Nyquist’s son is a 3/4 brother to the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Long Neck Paula (Uncle Mo). Their dam Take Charge Paula (Take Charge Indy), is a Grade 3-winning sprinter. There are minor black-type-earning sprinters scattered through the second and third generations. Autobahn benefited from the fast pace, and he would need a similar setup to have a shot here. Pass.

Trained by Brad Cox, Autobahn ships in from Gulfstream Park, where he finally broke his maiden in his third start. The colt was fifth on debut while racing six furlongs and third in his second start while stretching out to Gulfstream’s one-turn mile. The 1 1/8-mile distance of his last race was more to his liking, but that final time is atrocious. It’s worth noting that the winner of Autobahn’s second race, Canaletto, ran third next out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), missing the win by just three-quarters length. Conversely, runner-up Lost Money was eighth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his next start. The runner-up of Autobahn’s debut race was most recently 10th in the Virginia Derby, and none of his last out rivals have made subsequent starts. Marcelino Pedroza Jr., who will be the colt’s fourth jockey in as many starts, has the mount. Pass.

3. Chip Honcho (3-1)

Chip Honcho switched back to a pacesetting style in the Risen Star and was all heart, setting a quick uncontested pace only to be nipped by a half-length by Paladin. It was 5 1/2 lengths back to Golden Tempo. Chip Honcho might find 1 3/16 miles at the top of his distance range. Connect’s son is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Miss My Rose (Magician). There isn’t much black type in the first three generations of the family. The Steve Asmussen trainee earned a career-high 97 Brisnet rating and an 88 late-pace figure, although his mid-race E2 figure was 102, where he spent most of his energy. Contender.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Chip Honcho has been consistently good, finishing outside the exacta only when fourth in the Lecomte (G3), beaten by just 1 3/4 lengths by winner Golden Tempo. He has a victory in the Gun Runner Stakes as well as that runner-up effort to highly regarded Paladin last out in the Risen Star (G2). As Laurie said, distance is the big question for a colt who otherwise has very little to be nitpicked. Maybe he can get an uncontested lead and take them all the way as this is an arguably weaker field than the Risen Star. Luis Saez has the return call. Contender.

4. Universe (12-1)

Universe hasn’t shown the same spark as last year, when he placed in a trio of graded stakes. Perhaps he’s just slow to unwind this year, as his speed ratings improved along with his placement. 1 3/16 miles may be too far for Universe. So far, his second-crop sire, Global Campaign, has no winners beyond 1 1/16 miles. Universe is the second foal and first winner out of the unplaced Quality Road mare Equalityforall. Class skips to the third generation to Grade 3-winning handicap horse Called to Serve. The Kenny McPeek trainee fired a pre-race bullet five furlongs in 1:00. Perhaps he can improve for another lower exotics spot.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Universe last was seen finishing a non-threatening fourth in the Risen Star (G2). I really liked Universe coming off his juvenile campaign, but as Laurie said, we just haven’t seen the same colt this year. If this were a stronger field, I’d ignore Universe altogether. But anything could happen with a field like this. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the mount. Lower exotics.

5. Golden Tempo (7-2)

Golden Tempo was too far back in the Risen Star to catch the top pair, but he closed for a well-beaten third. The Cherie DeVaux trainee’s Brisnet ratings have risen in each start, and his late-pace figures are solid. Golden Tempo has classic breeding and should relish the extra distance. Curlin’s son is the second competitor out of Carrumba (Bernardini), a multiple Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Class skips to the third generation and includes Grade 1-winning turf router Dancing Forever. Contender.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Golden Tempo tried to replicate his Lecomte (G3) performance in the Risen Star (G2) but couldn’t run down Paladin and Chip Honcho in the stretch despite closing the gap a bit. DeVaux is adding blinkers for this race and is 12% wins with a 47% in-the-money clip with first-time blinkers in the last year. With the addition of blinkers and adjustments on Jose Ortiz’s part, expect to see Golden Tempo a bit more forwardly placed. Contender.

6. Spirit of Royal (20-1)

After beating maidens in his sixth start, Spirit of Royal ran with the urgency of a sloth on melatonin in the Southwest Stakes (G3), never getting involved and checking in ninth. Dallas Stewart’s charge earned a career-best 84 speed rating. 1 3/16 miles may be too far for Spirit of Royal. By second-crop sire Global Campaign, Spirit of Royal is out of the winning mare Spirit LetsHearit (By Girolamo), a half-sister to 2017 Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) winner El Deal. Pass.

Can we just take a minute to appreciate that colorful and vivid description? A Dallas Stewart trainee, Spirit of Royal took six tries to find the winner’s circle. Once he got that monkey off his back, Stewart threw him to the sharks in the Southwest. Aside from his victory, the colt’s best race was his debut, where he set the pace himself. He has closed in every other race. I think he’d do a lot better if he went back to being a pacesetter, but that doesn’t seem likely. Francisco Arrieta has the return call. Pass.

7. Blacksmith (6-1)

Blacksmith has kept good company in his five-race career, bested by eventual stakes winner So Happy and Robusta, who just missed in the San Felipe (G2). He finally got the job done after switching to a pace-pressing style in his last start, winning a maiden event by 3 3/4 lengths under a hand ride in 1:37.54 with a 13.36 final furlong. The Bob Baffert trainee’s speed rating rose to 92 with an 83 late-pace figure, although he expended his energy mid-race with a 101 E2 rating. Blacksmith has the pedigree to handle 1 3/16 miles. Liam’s Map’s son is the first foal out of the unraced Sweet Achiever (Curlin). She’s a full sister to the multiple graded-winning sprinter Cezanne and a 3/4 sister to the stakes winning sprinter, Counterforce. The classy third generation of Blacksmith’s family includes 2023 champ Arcangelo, and 2023 Canadian older male champ Tyson. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Blacksmith is an odd entrant for this race simply because Baffert hasn’t sent out any starters at the Louisiana track since Hoppertunity finished fourth in the 2014 Risen Star (G2) and Streaming finished seventh in the Rachel Alexandra (G3) on the same card. Although it took Blacksmith five attempts to break his maiden, he did finish second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in one of those races. The colt has kept good company out west, but none of his prior opponents are scaring anyone off. Florent Geroux has the return call. Exotics.

8. Easterly (6-1)

Easterly looked good in his debut against the eventual Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Class President. Easterly was three wide the entire way and engaged in an extended battle down the stretch with the pacesetter, so he got a little worn out. But he roused himself when he heard the third-place runner on his heels. In his second start, the Brad Cox trainee ran an almost identical race. He settled three wide while tailgating a quick early pace, put away the pacesetter but was stronger and pulled away under a hand ride to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Easterly completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:46.52, with a 6.71 final half-furlong. His speed rating improved to 87 with an 89 late-pace figure. Despite being so close to the pace in both starts, Easterly’s E1, E2 and LP figures get progressively higher, meaning he’s running faster for each section of the race. This is unusual for pace pressers and seen typically with one-run closers. Easterly’s pedigree indicates he should handle classic distances. Uncle Mo’s son is the fifth foal out of Dakota Wind (Tiznow). He’s a half-brother to the restricted-stakes-placed Unanimously, who later won a claiming race at 1 1/4 miles. The second generation of the family includes the multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter The Chosen Vron and Delightful Kiss, a multiple graded winner from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles. Easterly had a recent pair of five-furlong stamina breezes at Payson and should be ready for a class test. Exotics.

Also from the Cox barn, Easterly ships in with stablemate Autobahn from Gulfstream Park. Easterly appears to be the better of the two Cox runners, especially when looking at the jockey situation. Autobahn has had a rotating cast of riders while Easterly has only had Edgard Zayas, who does have the return call here. Exotics.

9. Emerging Market (6-1)

Emerging Market has a ground-eating stride and a nice turn of foot. He settled in fifth place in his debut then quickly joined the pacesetter around the far turn. The pair exchanged bumps down the lane, with Emerging Market doing most of the leaning. He won the battle of wills and inched clear by three-quarters-length late, with the rest of the field over 13 lengths behind. The Chad Brown trainee earned a 99 Brisnet rating and a 106 late-pace figure. Like Easterly, Emerging Market’s E1, E2 and LP figures were progressively higher. Emerging Market has the pedigree to run all day. Candy Ride’s son is the first foal out of the Empire Maker mare Wild Empress, who is a half-sister to the 2009 2-year-old champion Filly She Be Wild. Otherwise, there’s little black type in this family. Adding distance, shipping and facing winners for the first time while moving up in class is a lot to ask. But Emerging Market appears to have talent. Lower exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Emerging Market is a debut winner. Brown unveiled him in a Feb. 7 maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs. Runner-up Powershift finished sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) next out, and eighth-place finisher Mr. Hooligan was a next-out winner while dropping into claiming company. The 99 Brisnet Speed Rating that Emerging Market received is the best dirt speed in the field and the highest last-race speed rating. That 106 late-pace figure is the second best in the field, behind only Blacksmith’s 107. I know there’s a lot working against this colt, but I rather like him. Flavien Prat gets the return call. Contender.