Head to Head: See 2 sides of Saturday Derby prep at Oaklawn

Laurie

Ashley

1. Universe (3-1)

Universe owns a trio of runner-up positions in graded stakes. In his last start, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), the Kenny McPeek trainee closed to nab second place, 1 3/4 lengths behind Further Ado. It was a good effort, netting a respectable 90 Brisnet rating, but overall, Universe’s late-pace figures are in the high 80s. By second crop sire Global Campaign, Universe is the second foal and first winner out of the unplaced Quality Road mare Equalityforall. Class skips to the third generation to Grade 3-winning handicap horse, Called to Serve. Universe is facing a lesser group, but his speed ratings need to improve. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Universe is looking for his first stakes victory but never has finished outside the trifecta. After winning his debut by 4 1/2 lengths, the son of Global Campaign finished third in the Champagne (G1) and second in both the Street Sense (G3) and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He obviously has faced some of the better colts in his crop and takes a drop in class here. Universe has a career-high 91 Brisnet Speed Rating and enters off a 90 in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Joel Rosario picks up the mount for the first time. Contender.

2. Baytown Dreamer (30-1)

Baytown Dreamer placed in both starts on dirt as an early 2-year-old, and he has a nondescript turf record, with only a maiden victory. Mendelssohn’s son is out of the stakes winning sprinter Colerful Bride (Munnings). The dam is half to multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler Appealing Tale. The Paul McEntee trainee’s speed ratings are some of the lowest in the Smarty Jones field. He needs at least a 10-point improvement to be competitive. Pass.

Trained by Paul McEntee, Baytown Dreamer has tried dirt and turf and hasn’t been very good on either. His lone victory came in a wire-to-wire effort going one mile on the lawn at Ellis Park. The argument that he is better on dirt can be made as he’s 3: 0-1-1 with a fourth-place finish on that surface vs. 5: 1-0-1 with sixth-, seventh- and ninth-place finishes on turf. His best dirt race saw him finishing second to Spice Runner, who despite being a graded winner has been quite inconsistent. Baytown Dreamer earned his best speed rating, an 85, when finishing fourth in the Tremont Stakes, 11 lengths behind the talented filly Mythical. McEntee is 0% wins with a 12% in-the-money rate in stakes races over the last year, according to Race Lens. Orlando Bocachica picks up the mount for the first time. Pass.

3. Boca Beach Club (4-1)

Boca Beach Club won on class in his sprint debut at Hawthorne, then ran out of real estate in the 5 1/2-furlong Advent Stakes after a sustained wide rally. The James DiVito charge earned an improved 91 Brisnet rating. By leading third-crop sire Omaha Beach, Boca Beach Club is half to multiple graded-placed miler Promise of Spring. There’s a lot to like about Boca Beach Club. He’s bred to love two turns, has tactical speed and can press or close. He posted a pair of recent sharp breezes, five furlongs in 59.60 and a bullet four in 46.20. Additionally, he’s the only one in the field with a race over the surface. Contender.

Trained by James DiVito, Boca Beach Club was a convincing debut winner at Hawthorne, drawing off to win a five-furlong event by 5 3/4 lengths. The son of Omaha Beach stepped up in class to run a good second in the Advent Stakes on Dec. 12. Winner Dirty Rich was making his fifth start and switching back to dirt, which he broke his maiden over, after two failed attempts in stakes races on turf. Third-place finisher Spun D M C already was stakes-placed, and seventh- and last-place finisher Walter the Mason won the Zia Park Juvenile in his previous start. Boca Beach Club’s Brisnet Speed Rating rose from an 84 to a 91, tying him for the second best speed rating in the field. DiVito is 0% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip in stakes races over the last year. Luis Saez, the colt’s third jockey in as many starts, has the mount. Exotics.

4. Silent Tactic (12-1)

In his second start, Silent Tactic closed six wide into glacial fractions to grab second place in Woodbine’s Grey Stakes (G3). The effort improved his Brisnet rating to 83, with a decent late-pace figure of 91. By first-crop sire Tacitus, Silent Tactic is out of the Gun Runner mare Magical Sign, who is half to the multiple graded-placed miler Moraz. Silent Tactic’s third dam, rene-de-course Macoumba, bore perennial leading sire Malibu Moon. Silent Tactic has long, one-paced strides, much like his sire. The Mark Casse trainee has a dirt-oriented, late-maturing pedigree. Can he improve enough to win? Anything is possible with a lightly raced youngster. But I anticipate an exotics placing, also like his sire.

Trained by Mark Casse, Silent Tactic will be making his first traditional dirt start after making his first two starts on Woodbine’s Tapeta surface. Silent Tactic was off a step slow in his debut but got up in the last 70 yards to win by two lengths. He then missed the win by just 3/4 lengths in the Grey Stakes (G3) in his second start. Both races were contested at 1 1/16 miles. Silent Tactic earned a 75 speed rating in his debut and an 83 in the Grey (G3). Jaime Torres, the colt’s third jockey in as many starts, has the call. Exotics.

5. Rancho Santa Fe (5-2)

Rancho Santa Fe passed his initial tests against maidens and optional-claiming allowance runners. In his second start, the Brad Cox trainee raced three wide and gradually gained ground on the pacesetter. The pair were going up and down instead of forward; their minds engaged with each other. Rancho Santa Fe won the dominance test and got up at the wire for the victory. The effort earned an improved 86 speed rating. Tapit’s son is half to Grade 3-winning miler Heroic Move, who won multiple listed stakes races up to 1 1/8 miles. Their dam, Family Tree (Smart Strike), is a multiple graded winner at 1 1/16 miles and was third in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama. The third dam is the multiple graded-winning sprinter Gold Mover. Rancho Santa Fe should improve with racing. Although he enters off an 84-day layoff, he’s been breezing steadily at Payson Park, including two recent five-furlong moves in 1:02. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Rancho Santa Fe is undefeated in two career starts. The colt debuted a winner at Ellis Park, winning a mile event by 1 3/4 lengths. Fourth-place finisher Maximus Prime was second in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes next out, and a couple finished second in their next start, but there have been no other winners. Rancho Santa Fe beat winners in his second start, a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer. The second- and third-place finishers won their next starts. Although the colt’s speed rating improved from his first start to his second, he’s going to need to take another significant step forward from the 86 he received last out. I don’t think I need to go off about Cox’s various stats. Regular rider Florent Geroux retains the mount. Contender.

6. Oscar’s Hope (8-1)

Oscar’s Hope hasn’t placed worse than second in five career starts, all sprints. His Brisnet ratings are in the solid 80s, but he showed improvement at 7 1/2 furlongs in his last start, recording a 96 late-pace figure. Twirling Candy’s son is out of Hopeful Princess (Not This Time), who was Grade 3-placed as a juvenile. The third generation of the family includes Grade 3-placed Street Magician. Multiple Grade 1 hero Mindframe is a distant relative. Oscar’s Hope has the pedigree to relish two turns. Tom Amoss gave Oscar’s Hope a second-to-last five-furlong move in a bullet 59.80. Exotics.

Trained by Tom Amoss, Oscar’s Hope never has been worse than second in five career starts. He enters on a two-race win streak, including a 2 3/4 length victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs for Louisiana-bredslast out. The son of Twirling Candy also has victories at Saratoga and Churchill Downs. Way Beyond, who was fourth to Oscar’s Hope in the Jean Lafitte, then was fifth in the Remington Springboard Mile next out. Jean Lafitte second- and third-place finishers are stakes winners themselves as is the fifth place finisher (turf). Oscar’s Hope’s speed ratings have remained steady in the mid-80s, and this will be his first start around two turns. Amoss is just 4% wins with a 30% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. Ricardo Santana Jr. picks up the mount and will be the colt’s fourth jockey in as many starts after Jose Ortiz rode him for his first three starts. Exotics.

7. Strategic Risk (6-1)

When Strategic Risk is good, he’s very, very good. When he is bad, he lives up to his name. The Mark Casse trainee was very, very good in his first and last races, bookended distances of five furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. But he lost a trio of races by double digits without an apparent excuse. By Grade 1 winner Noble Bird, Strategic Risk’s full sister, Strategic Bird, is a multiple stakes winner. She and their other full brother, Just Relax, earned black type as juveniles. Second dam Strategy also placed as a juvenile and is a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. The third dam, Educated Risk, was a multiple graded winner from age 2 to 5, including two Grade 1 victories. She was a half to 1996 champion mare Inside Information. Strategic Risk owns a 105 late-pace figure, the field’s highest. He’s an ADHD poster boy, but I can’t endorse. Pass.

Trained by Mark Casse, Strategic Risk has done his best running in Florida-bred company. He won his debut by 8 1/4 lengths under a hand ride vs. Florida-breds. In his two most recent starts, the son of Noble Bird was third in the Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes and won the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes by nine lengths. But in his two starts versus open company, Strategic Risk was fourth, beaten by 16 3/4 lengths, in the Sanford (G3), and sixth, beaten by 10 lengths, in the With Anticipation (G3) on turf. Sanford winner Obliteration has continued to run well on dirt and turf in graded company. Strategic Risk earned a career- and field-best 98 Brisnet Speed Rating last out, his first attempt around two turns on the dirt. It was a significant step forward, but perhaps he’s found his calling. Javier Castellano has the return call from the In Reality. I have to completely disagree with Laurie. Contender.

8. Scar Ship (12-1)

Scar Ship is hit or miss in sprints at the Louisiana-bred level. Now he travels, adds distance and faces tougher. Midshipman’s son is out of the winning Dixie Union mare Hopeful Union. None of Scar Ship’s six half-siblings owns black type. The second generation of the family includes Extra Hope, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Scar Ship may vie for the lead, but I predict speed and fade. Pass.

Trained by Ricky Courville, Scar Ship enters off a half-length defeat in the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes. The son of Midshipman has raced exclusively against Louisiana-breds. He was second on debut and then sixth in the Louisiana Legacy Stakes. Scar Ship broke his maiden in his third start, pulling away to a 9 1/2-length victory. In his most recent start, Scar Ship ducked out at the start from his rail post, dueled throughout and came up short. Courville adds blinkers after that effort but is 0% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip with blinkers on and first-time blinkers. He’s also 0% wins with sprint-to-route runners. Ramon Vazquez, who hasn’t ridden by Courville in the last year, has the mount. Pass.

9. Sleepingonfreedom (5-1)

Sleepingonfreedom didn’t beat much in his last two starts, but he looked good doing it. In his maiden victory, the Kenny McPeek trainee fought head-to-head down the lane, with some slight contact. He lost the lead slightly while on the inside but came back to win by a neck. In his last race, the first around two turns and in the slop, Sleepingonfreedom was covered up on the rail in fifth. He cut the far-turn corner then weaved outside of horses and passed them without a second thought. The dark bay colt earned an 86 speed rating for both races, but his late-pace figure improved to 93. By first-crop sire Independence Hall, the cleverly named Sleepingonfreedom is out of the unraced Tiznow mare Siesta. His second dam is a full sister to 2012 champion 2-year-old colt Shanghai Bobby. Sleepingonfreedom has tactical speed and shown that he won’t back down in a fight. Live long shot.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Sleepingonfreedom is riding a two-race win streak after dropping his debut race by a half-length. That debut race was key as six runners, including Sleepingonfreedom, were next-out winners. Third-place finisher Mo’ Em Down, a filly, was then second in Sorrento (G3), and a seventh runner also became a winner. No winners have exited the colt’s second race, though seven runners hit the board next out. Sleepingonfreedom’s most recent race was a 1 1/16-mile starter race in the slop at Churchill Downs. Third-place finisher Big Apple Patrick ran sixth in the Remington Springboard Mile in his next start. Sleepingonfreedom earned a 76 speed rating in his debut and an 86 in his next two starts. He will need to take a step forward, but he fits in this field. McPeek’s go-to rider Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return call. Exotics.