Head to Head: Opinions clash on contentious Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1.   Mesquite (9-2)

In his second start, Mesquite broke last, was rank and climbing, but settled down around the first turn. He took the long way around, closed into a solid pace while making a sustained drive and picked off rivals with each stride. Mesquite was six wide on the far turn and battled with a pair of rivals in late stretch. He put them away in the shadow of the Churchill Downs wire by 3/4 length, with a final time of 1:45.21 for 1 1/16 miles. The Cherie DeVaux trainee earned an 84 Brisnet rating, with an 81 late-pace figure. Union Rags’s son is out of an unraced Mineshaft mare who is a full sister to the stakes-placed sprinter Makes a Scene. All of the black-type earners in the second generation are fillies, but the third generation includes Met Mile (G1) winner Silver State, and Mesquite’s fourth dam, Regal Band, gave us 2021 Kentucky Derby hero Monarchos. Mesquite sustained his speed while passing rivals throughout the race. It was an impressive effort. Contender.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Mesquite was sixth on debut sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland. The Union Rags colt found the winner’s circle in his next start while stretching out around two turns at Churchill Downs. Mesquite’s debut race produced two other next-out winners, including Gallivant, who won the Bowman Mill Stakes by six lengths. His second race so far has produced two winners, one next-out. The colt’s speed ratings have held steady at 83 then 84, neither of which will win this. Regular jockey Jose Ortiz has the mount. Exotics.

2.   Chip Honcho (9-2)

Chip Honcho set a hot pace in his second start and turned back a mild challenge to splash his way over Churchill’s mud to a 1 1/4-length victory over maidens. He completed a mile in 1:37.60 with a slow 13.60 final furlong. He showed tenacity to keep going, although he was tired, and his 79 late-pace figure reflects this. Connect’s son is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Miss My Rose. Not much black type in three generations of the family. Chip Honcho gets first-time blinkers, but he’ll need to improve to beat these rivals. Pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Chip Honcho was second on debut to even-money favorite Dr. Kapur, who just finished sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Along with Chip Honcho, this race produced two next-out winners, including Liberty National. Chip Honcho took his second race gate-to-wire and won the mile event by 1 1/4 lengths in the mud. Only one from that field has made a subsequent start, and that runner finished third at Turfway Park. Asmussen adds blinkers to keep the colt focused after he wandered a bit in the stretch last out and is 14% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip with runners sporting first time blinkers. Chip Honcho showed declining speed ratings last out, but maybe the blinkers will help with that too. Paco Lopez picks up the mount and will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts. Contender.

3.   Liberty National (7-2)

In his second start and first around two turns, Liberty National settled on the rail in mid-pack, then tipped out and passed the pacesetters like they were tied to the rail. The Ken McPeek trainee completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.41, good enough for a 91 speed rating and a strong 100 late-pace figure. By the second-leading first-crop sire Maxfield, Liberty National is out of a full sister to Grade 1 winner and sire Paynter. Liberty National’s second dam is a full sister to Tiznow. Liberty National was professional in his second start and will be tough if he can duplicate the effort. Contender.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Liberty National debuted in the same race as Chip Honcho and was sixth to that rival’s second, never a threat at any point. McPeek stretched the colt from seven furlongs to 8 1/2 furlongs for his next start. Liberty National was more forwardly placed this time and skipped off to a 4 1/4-length victory after pressing the early pace. His Brisnet Speed Rating improved from a 78 to a 91 in the process. McPeek’s go-to rider Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return call. Contender.

4.   Quality Mischief (10-1)

Quality Mischief looked like an also-ran in the stretch of his second start. He was one-paced while passing rivals, but once clear, he lengthened stride late, made up 3 1/2 lengths and nailed the co-favorite on the wire. The Brad Cox trainee recorded only a 72 speed rating but a strong 90 late-pace figure and completed a mile and 70 yards at Horseshoe Indianapolis in 1:45.33 over a good track. Into Mischief’s son is half to 2023 Saratoga Special (G2) runner-up Market Street. Quality Mischief’s dam is half to Grade 3 winner Super Ninety Nine, and his second dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1 heroine Exogenous. Quality Mischief’s speed rating is low, but his first breeze after graduating was four furlongs in 47.60, more than a second faster than his pre-race breeze. This is a sign that a horse may progress in his next start. Exotics.

Trained by Brad Cox, Quality Mischief debuted on turf. He lingered at the back of the field for the duration of the race but improved position late. He still finished eighth, beaten by 8 1/4 lengths. The intent was to run him on turf again, but the colt’s next race came off the lawn, resulting in a head victory over a track labeled good. Both races were at Indianapolis, and although Quality Mischief’s speed ratings did improve, they topped out at a 72 last out. Quality Mischief’s dirt race hasn’t produced anything, but the turf race is where it gets interesting as winner Gordon Pass was third in the Bourbon Stakes (G2) next out. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts. Pass.

5.   Crown the Buckeye (5-1)

Crown the Buckeye beat up on Ohio-breds in his last two starts, winning by a combined 16 1/4 lengths. He settled off the pace in his last start. Once the Mike Maker trainee took on the pacesetter, he became erratic, drifting in the stretch before refocusing after passing the rival. Crown the Buckeye completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.40 after chasing soft fractions, earning a 90 speed rating. His 104 late-pace figure is the field’s highest. By leading first-crop sire Yaupon, Crown the Buckeye is half to a pair of Ohio-bred, stakes-placed runners. Their dam’s half-sister bore multiple Grade 1 heroine Scottish Lassie, so there’s quality class in this family. Crown the Buckeye’s post-race morning works are quicker than pre-race, a positive sign. Exotics.

Trained by Mike Maker, Crown the Buckeye has raced exclusively in Ohio-bred stakes races. He was second on debut in the Hoover Stakes, getting caught late after doing all the early footwork. He then won the Best of Ohio Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes by 12 1/4 lengths and the Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths. He has raced at three tracks with wins at two of them. Crown the Buckeye also earned a career and field-best 96 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Kindergarten Stakes, and although he showed slight regression last out, he earned a 90 despite the theatrics Laurie pointed out. The son of Yaupon has done well with multiple jockeys, though Jareth Loveberry gets the return call from the Juvenile Stakes. As a lifelong Georgia Bulldogs fan, I want to ignore Crown the Buckeye on principle alone, but he didn’t choose his name. Contender.

6.   Arabia Wild (8-1)

Arabia Wild got the job done in his third start and first time going 1 1/16 miles. He took the overland route the entire way and held off a challenger while drifting a bit in the stretch. He completed 1 1/16 miles in a tame 1:46.39. Brad Cox’s charge saw his Brisnet rating rise to 78, but his 79 late-pace figure is among the field’s lowest. Gun Runner’s son is half to multiple graded winner and Grade 1-placed Protonico and to African Fighter, a stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles. Their second dam Wild Spirit won the Ruffian (G1). Arabia Wild is bred to run all day and to improve with maturity but currently isn’t fast enough to handle these. Although I’d enjoy seeing him win a race named for his sire, I’ll have to pass.

Also from the Cox barn, Arabia Wild, like his stablemate, began his career at Indianapolis. He finished second in his first two starts. Knick the Quick, winner of Arabia Wild’s debut, was a well-beaten fourth in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park next out, and Grand Mahogany, winner of Arabia Wild’s second race, was a well-beaten third in optional-claiming company at Keeneland next out. Arabia Wild picked up his maiden-breaking win at Fair Grounds, winning a mid-level maiden event by three-quarter lengths. Arabia Wild’s speed ratings improved from a 67 to a 68 and then a 78. I have to concur with Laurie’s assessment. Axel Concepcion takes over from Jareth Loveberry, who rides Crown the Buckeye instead. Pass.

7.   Very Connected (9-2)

The most experienced in the Gun Runner field with five starts under his girth, Very Connected closed in the Street Sense (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) for minor awards, earning an 88 Brisnet rating both times and strong late-pace figures in the 90s. Connect’s son is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Hidden Connection, who is also multiple graded-placed. Very Connected is fairly one-paced and wasn’t a threat to the horses in front of him in either graded stakes. But he’s dropping in company and could better his position in the Gun Runner. Exotics.

Also from the McPeek barn, Very Connected enters off two good efforts in graded-stakes company. He was third in the Street Sense off his maiden win and then fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Although Laurie is correct in that Very Connected was never a threat to the horses in front of him in his last two starts, there is something to be said for him always picking up a minor award. His 88 speed ratings for both graded races are certainly good enough to run that streak to three exotics placings in a row. Andnd if he takes a step forward, he could certainly win on the cut back in class. Colby Hernandez takes over from Emmanuel Esquivel. Exotics.

8.   Mister Punch (6-1)

It’s surprising that the $350,000 yearling purchase Mister Punch was dropped into a $100,000 maiden-claiming event in his second start, and even more surprising that nobody picked him up, especially given his pedigree. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a spare $100K lying around. Mister Punch had trouble in his turf sprint debut at Kentucky Downs but had no problems going two turns on Churchill’s dirt. The Brad Cox trainee was reserved on the outside just off the pace, was challenged and passed briefly before coming back to win by a commanding 4 3/4 lengths under hand urging. He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.59, good enough for a strong 90 rating but only an 83 late-pace figure. Mister Punch recorded a trio of moderate breezes at Payson Park. Into Mischief’s son is a 3/4 brother to Grade 3 winner Harlan’s Punch, and half to multiple graded-winning turf router United, who was second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Their half-sister Tensa’s Punch is a stakes winner and black-type producer. The third generation includes Grade 1 winner Liaison. Contender.

The third colt from the Cox barn, Mister Punch debuted on turf like stablemate Quality Mischief with much the same result. A switch to dirt while stretching out around two turns resulted in a nice 4 3/4-length victory in a high-level maiden claiming event. So far only one rival from that race has hit the trifecta in subsequent starts, and that came while dropping further in class. The 90 speed rating Mister Punch received for his maiden win is tied for the third best figure in the field. Luis Saez, who will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts, has the mount. Exotics.