Head to Head: Can Spice Runner rebound in Springboard Mile?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Arctic Beast (4-1)

Arctic Beast iced his New York-bred competition at Finger Lakes and heads west for a shot at open company in his first start in two months. By leading first-crop sire Yaupon, Arctic Beast holds the honor as his sire’s highest money earner. His dam Frostie Anne (Frost Giant) is a multiple New York state-bred stakes winner from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. Arctic Beast’s Brisnet ratings are the best in the field, and the pacesetter gets to take the short way around. He gets a class test, but this field doesn’t contain any world beaters. Contender.

Trained by Mike Maker, Arctic Beast is undefeated in three career starts, all against New York-breds. He won his debut by a mere nose but won the Aspirant Stakes by 7 1/4 lengths, earning a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed Rating, and the New York Breeders’ Futurity by 5 3/4 lengths. Arctic Beast’s debut race produced a next-out maiden winner and the eventual winner of a New York Stallion Series Stakes. Diamond Child and Party in the Army took turns finishing second and third to Arctic Beast in the Aspirant and New York Breeders’ Futurity, with Diamond Child nabbing the runner-up position in the Aspirant and Party in the Army turning the tables at in the New York Breeders’ Futurity. With wins at two tracks in three starts, Arctic Beast is a road warrior, but he needs to prove he can carry his form outside New York. Remington Park isn’t a bad place to try open company for the first time. Regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr. has the mount. Contender.

2. Time for Music (9-2)

In his second start, Time for Music had a wide trip while chasing a quick pace. He was one-paced down the stretch and passed tired horses to gain second place. Not This Time’s son is out of the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bling on the Music. His damsire, Too Much Bling, gave us the 2012 Springboard winner Texas Bling. Time For Music is professional and passes other horses without hesitation. His Brisnet ratings are on an upward trend, and his 92 late-pace number is the field’s highest. Contender.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Time for Music has one win from four starts. He was fourth on debut, leading most of the race but getting caught late after failing to switch leads. He was then ninth before winning in his third start. He was most recently second at odds of 24-1 in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Spun D M C, winner of the colt’s second race, is now dual-stakes-placed. Nothing else of note has exited Time for Music’s races. Under other circumstances, this is a runner I wouldn’t look twice at. But since Time for Music is shipping from Kentucky to Oklahoma, he gets more consideration than I might otherwise afford him. His speed ratings have been on the upswing, culminating with an 87 last out. Erik Asmussen has the call for the first time. Exotics.

3. Essential Time (6-1)

Winner of the Clever Trevor Stakes in his second start, Essential Time put in a good effort next out, closing over Remington’s lawn to finish third behind Springboard rival Express Kid. The Danny Pish trainee should appreciate the switch back to dirt. By third-leading first-crop sire Essential Quality, Essential Time is out of the multiple stakes-placed mare, Twilight Curfew. Her half-sister Twirling Candy bore Grade 1 winner Fair Maiden, and that one produced last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) hero First Resort. Essential Time’s third dam is Kentucky Oaks heroine Secret Status, dam of 2009 Belmont Stakes runner-up Dunkirk. Essential Time is a one-run closer. His pace figures are average, but he should enjoy the extra distance and will be running at the end. Exotics.

Trained by Danny Pish, Essential Time is a local runner who broke his maiden in the Springboard Mile prep, the Clever Trevor Stakes, by 1 1/4 lengths with a career-best 79 Brisnet Speed Rating. That victory is sandwiched between a debut second and a good third-place finish on turf last out, in which he was gaining ground late and finished three lengths behind winner Express Kid. Clever Trevor fourth-place finisher Stretch was third in the Zia Park Juvenile next out, and while the sixth place finisher was Express Kid, who turned the tables next out on the lawn. Walter the Mason, fifth in the turf race, won the Zia Park Juvenile next out, and sixth-place finisher Canned Heat was also a next-out winner on dirt. Pish is 19% wins with a 38% in-the-money rate in stakes races over the last year, according to Race Lens, and is 16% wins with a 44% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners. Regular jockey Iram Vargas Diego has the mount, and if the pace is strong enough, Essential Time could pick up a piece of the pie. Exotics.

4. Royalamerican (12-1)

Royalamerican steps into open company after beating state-bred stakes competition in his last two starts. He had a little early trouble in his last start and was a bit green down the lane, lugging in on a rival and turning his head away while deciding if he wanted to pass. His ears were flopping about, so he might have just enjoyed running with another horse. His Brisnet ratings are improving, and he can close or settle in midpack. Upstart’s son is out of the winning Creative Cause mare Scat for the Cause. Most of the family’s black type is Oaklahoma state-bred. Exotics.

Trained by breeder and owner C.R. Trout, Royalamerican is 4: 2-2-0, all in Oklahoma-bred company. The Upstart gelding finished second in his first two starts, both maiden events, losing by just a half-length each time. The third time was the charm as Royalamerican broke his maiden in winning the Oklahoma Classics Juvenile Stakes. He made it two in a row by capturing the Don C. McNeill Stakes in his next outing. The gelding appears to thrive on racing as starts two through four came over the course of a month. Trout gave his stakes winner a breather, however, and Royalamerican enters off a six-week layoff. But Trout is just 6% wins with a 59% in-the-money clip with runners racing off a one- to two-month layoff over the last year. The gelding’s speed ratings have improved with each start, capped off by an 84 at the mile distance last out in the Don C. McNeill. Regular rider David Cabrera has the mount. Exotics.

5. My Dream Zapper (20-1)

My Dream Zapper was caught late in the Gold Rush Futurity, missing by 3/4 length and earning a 78 Brisnet rating. It was a slight regression after beating allowance-class runners by 1 1/4 lengths in his last start. The Stetson Rushton trainee does his best work on the front end. Ghostzapper’s son is out of the restricted stakes placed mare Sincerity (Mucho Macho Man). Her full brother, Ghost Hunter, won the 1 3/16 mile Arlington Handicap. Ghostzapper’s sire, Awesome Again, and Mucho Macho Man’s sire, Macho Uno, are half-brothers. My Dream Zapper is bred to handle distance and improve with maturity. His speed ratings are middling, and he’s taking a step up in class. Pass.

Trained by Stetson Rushton, My Dream Zapper is 5: 2-1-1 with both wins coming in low level races at Arapahoe Park. The Ghostzapper colt was most recently second by 3/4 lengths in the Gold Rush Futurity at Arapahoe Park. My Dream Zapper has a career-best 84 speed rating but showed decline in his last start. Rushton is 11% wins with a 49% in-the-money rate in non-graded stakes over the last year. Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez has the mount for the first time. Pass.

6. Supreme Good (8-1)

After two off-the-board finishes, Supreme Good discovered that he liked to play in the mud. Or maybe it was the drop to maiden-claiming class and being more forwardly placed. In any case, the Ken McPeek trainee galloped home an 8 1/2-length winner and earned a career-best 81 speed rating. Supreme Good’s sire Supremacy, and damsire, Dark Angel, both won the six-furlong Middle Park Stakes (G1), and both claim Acclamation as their second tail sire. The black-type earners in the second generation of Supreme Good’s distaff line are group-class sprinter-milers. Supreme Good has a choppy, upright gait with high knee action. His initial start over the lawn wasn’t terrible, as he gained ground, and his gait was smoother. Given his pedigree and gait, I’m not convinced that dirt is his preferred surface, but Ken McPeek is a top trainer, and I’m not. Anyway, I’m passing.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Supreme Good lost his first two races by a combined 24 lengths. A drop into maiden claiming company resulted in an 8 1/2 length victory going a mile in the mud at Aqueduct. The colt’s speed ratings have risen from a 66 to a 71 to an 81 last out. McPeek has shipped to Remington Park only three times in the last five years but is 3-for-3 at the track. Christopher Elliot takes over from regular rider Luis R. Rivera Jr., and given McPeek’s record at Remington Park, you have to consider this colt. Exotics.

7. Spice Runner (3-1)

Spice Runner cuts back to a mile and drops in company after excuses in his two starts, where he was thrashed by a combined 27 lengths, with his speed ratings on a downward trajectory. Spice Runner’s full brother Gunite is a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and was second in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Their dam, Simple Surprise, is a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Gun Runner can close, press or set the pace, giving him plenty of options here. He’s the class of the field. Contender.

Also from the Asmussen barn, Spice Runner gets major class relief after three straight graded races in which he won the Iroquois (G3) and lost the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) by 12 3/4 lengths and the Kentucky Jockey Club by 15 lengths. As Laurie pointed out, he encountered trouble at the start of both races, but I also believe that he doesn’t want that 1 1/16-mile distance. With the cutback in distance and class relief, I think we’ll see the same colt that tenaciously won the Iroquois (G3) by a head. Stewart Elliot has the call. Contender.

8. Way Beyond (12-1)

In his third start, Way Beyond won the photo in a six-furlong maiden-claiming event but hasn’t come close to the winner’s circle in two starts. Interestingly, the Steve Asmussen trainee earned three 77 Brisnet ratings, so is that the best he can do? Twirling Candy’s son is half to Grade 3 winner King Zachary. The third generation of the family contains Golden Sixty, a three-time Hong Kong horse of the year. Way Beyond hasn’t shown the ability to handle this group. Pass.

The third of the Asmussen trio, Way Beyond is 5: 1-0-1. After two attempts on turf in which the colt didn’t hit the board, Asmussen switched Way Beyond to dirt and gave him class relief by running him in a high-level maiden claiming event. He won that by a nose but then lost his next two starts, including the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs, by 11 1/2 lengths. Speed-ratings-wise, Way Beyond has failed to move forward, and his best effort won’t pass muster here. Ramon Vazquez has the mount. Pass.

9. Western Man (20-1)

Western Man showed a lot of talent and professionalism in his debut. He broke last of seven, giving up a few lengths, but was quickly into stride, passing horses along the inside, only to get caught in a traffic jam. It didn’t bother the Joe Offolter trainee, and he waited patiently for jockey Richard Eramia to find an opening. Once daylight appeared, Western Man dove between horses and kept going without hesitation, galloping home by 9 1/4 lengths and earning a 76 Brisnet rating. By multiple stakes-winner Code West, who was successful to 1 1/8 miles, Western Man is out of a winning Kitten’s Joy mare. No black type in the first three generations of his distaff line. Long-shot exotics.  

Trained by Joe Offolter, Western Man is the least experienced runner in the field with just one career start. As Laurie described, he won convincingly and professionally. It’s too early to tell exactly what he beat in that race since it was on Nov. 28, but it was at Remington Park, so the class is likely to be lacking. It’s also important to note that the race itself was restricted to Oklahoma-breds, throwing more doubt at the class. Offolter is 25% wins with a 59% in-the-money rate in non-graded stakes in the last five years, most of them at Remington Park. Richard Eramia gets the return call. Pass.

10. Big Apple Patrick (15-1)

Big Apple Patrick gets a chance to keep his hooves dry after two decent outings over the Churchill mud. He closed to win his seven-furlong debut by two lengths but wasn’t as effective as a pacesetter going two turns and ran out of oats about a furlong from home, checking in third. Union Rags’ son is out of the unraced Sour Apples. The second generation of his distaff line includes 2022 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Instant Coffee. The Daniel Leitch trainee may have regressed slightly in his initial start around two turns and facing winners. He may improve here with the distance cut back and perhaps not be as forwardly placed. If Big Apple Patrick returns to his maiden form, maybe he’ll earn a piece of the pie. Exotics.

Trained by Daniel Leitch, Big Apple Patrick debuted a winner at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs. But he fell flat going two turns in a starter race. That debut race has produced just one winner, Chayton, who won by a nose in a low-level maiden race at Turfway Park. Leitch is winless in non-graded stakes races in the last five years with a 27% in-the-money clip. Big Apple Patrick’s speed ratings are decent, but I’m not convinced. Regular rider Walter Rodriguez has the mount. Pass.

11. Jets Rio (30-1)

Jets Rio has competed on fast dirt, turf and slop in his three-race career and improved in each instance. He splashed his way to a 5 1/2-length victory in his last start, earning a 70 speed rating. Candy Ride’s son is out of the listed winner Jeweled Princess (Caro Prince). Class skips to the third generation, which includes a stakes winner and a pair of stakes placed runners. Although I respect Ron Moquett, Jets Rio needs to improve to be a contender. Pass.

Trained by Ron Moquett, Jets Rio finally found the winner’s circle in his third and most recent start. The son of Candy Ride gets a pass for his poor debut performance as he hit the gate at the start, but he did well in his other starts. He missed by just three-quarter lengths on the turf in his second start before winning his third start by 5 1/2 lengths. His speed ratings have improved with each start, but his career best 70 just won’t cut it here. Regular rider Rene Diaz has the call. Pass.

12. Express Kid (20-1)

Express Kid has been consistent in three of his first four starts. He got cooked in an early three-way duel in 21.67 and checked in a well-beaten sixth behind Essential Time. He returned the favor when the pair faced off over the lawn. The Wade Rarick trainee was hard held and asked to rate behind horses while on the rail. The lesson paid off and Express Kid won the photo by a nose, earning a 75 speed rating. Bodexpress’s son is out of the winning Street Sense mare Sensationalize. Express Kid’s second dam is multiple stakes-winner Stormy West. This colt needs to take another step up to be competitive. Pass.

Trained by Wade Rarick, Express Kid was second in the Prairie Meadows Freshman Stakes in his second start but finished 12 3/4 lengths behind Essential Time in the Clever Trevor Stakes. The colt has two wins, one on dirt in his debut and the other on turf in his most recent start. Rarick is 11% wins with a 39% in-the-money clip in non-graded stakes in the last five years. Jose Alvarez will be Express Kid’s fifth jockey in as many starts. Pass.