Head to Head: A full plate of opinions on the Clark Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Cooke Creek (12-1)

Trained by Mike Maker, Cooke Creek enters off a gate-to-wire win in the 1 1/8-mile Battery Park Stakes at Delaware. This inconsistent gelding has finished behind First Mission, Hit Show and Rattle N Roll in previous starts and is 9: 2-0-0 in graded stakes. Maker has 3% wins with a 24% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Francisco Arrieta takes over from Jaime Rodriguez and will be Cooke Creek’s fifth jockey in as many starts in 2025. Pass.

Cooke Creek has speed from the rail and only only as a pacesetter or presser. He’s worked his way up and missed by a neck to Hit Show in last year’s Lucas Classic (G2), so the ability is there. But then he was off form and didn’t return to the winner’s circle until his three-length victory in the Battery Park Stakes. If he’s on top of his game, the 6-year-old gelding could be a pace factor, but as Ashley noted, he’s inconsistent. Pass.

2.  First Mission (5-1)

Trained by Brad Cox, First Mission was last seen finishing fourth in the Goodwood (G1), 7 1/4 lengths behind Nevada Beach, who won the Native Diver (G3) in his next start. He has finished outside the trifecta four times in 12 races and only once in four races at Churchill Downs. First Mission posted triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in four of five starts this year, with the 96 he earned last out in the Goodwood breaking that streak. Flavien Prat, who was aboard in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), the 5-year-old’s only win this year, has the mount. Exotics.

First Mission likes to be on or near the lead, but that didn’t happen in the Goodwood, so he predictably finished off the board. Brad Cox gave the 5-year-old a second-to-last bullet five-furlong move in 59.80 at Churchill Downs and a pre-race half-mile in 48.40, so First Mission should be on his toes. First Mission was second in the 2023 edition of the Clark, and his Brisnet ratings are typically in the 100s, so he should improve with his preferred trip. But his Brisnet ratings have decreased in each start since April, giving mixed signals. If not for that, I’d label him a contender. But I'll settle for an exotics placing.

3.  Hit Show (3-1)

Also from the Cox barn, Hit Show has been hit or miss since returning to the U.S after upsetting the Dubai World Cup. He was fifth in the Stephen Foster (G1) and fourth in the Lukas Classic (G2) but won the West Virginia’s Governor’s Stakes and the Fayette. He bested Rattle N Roll and Gosger last out in the Fayette and received a 105 Brisnet Speed Figure for the effort. Hit Show is 12: 5-1-0 going nine furlongs but is 7: 2-0-0 at Churchill Downs. Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the return call. Pass.

Hit Show showed his pretty gray tail to Clark rivals Rattle N Roll and Gosger in the Fayette. The Brad Cox trainee is following the same path as last year, when he captured the Lukas Classic (G2) and Fayette before checking in third in the Clark Stakes. Hit Show is capable of consecutive victories but hasn’t done it since last year. Still, the Fayette is a key race, and Hit Show has back class. He’ll have speed to help set up his closing kick. Contender.   

4.  Gosger (4-1)

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Gosger was third in the Fayette (G3) last out, missing the win by just 1 1/4 lengths in his first start against older runners. He had the lead in the stretch but was outfinished by Hit Show and Rattle N Roll. If you toss his sixth-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), where he stumbled at the start and raced wide, then he’s never finished outside the trifecta in his career, including a win in the Lexington (G3) and runner-up efforts in the Preakness and Haskell (G1). Walsh adds blinkers to Gosger’s equipment and has 17% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with the first time blinkers angle. Regular jockey Luis Saez retains the mount. Contender.

The well-bred Gosger tangled with Journalism this summer, and he was in the mix against older horses in the Fayette. Toss the Pennsylvania Derby, where he stumbled at the break. He hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since April, but has been close, so perhaps blinkers will help. The Brendan Walsh trainee has recorded three triple-digit E2 figures in his last four starts, and his late-pace figures are in the high 90s, showing Gosger can carry his tactical speed. He’s facing the same Fayette crew and could improve in his third start off the layoff. Contender.

5.  Chunk of Gold (10-1)

Trained by Ethan West, Chunk of Gold took an optional-claiming field gate-to-wire and won by 8 1/4 lengths last out. The colt was second in the Risen Star (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2) and Ohio Derby (G3). Three starts back, Chunk of Gold won the West Virginia Derby (G3). Aside from the Kentucky Derby, in which he was ninth, 15 3/4 lengths behind Sovereignty, Chunk of Gold hasn’t faced tough competition. West has 22% wins with a 67% in-the-money clip in graded stakes. Junior Alvarado has the mount. Exotics.

Other than a troubled ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Chunk of Gold has been consistent in the Grade 2 and 3 ranks. He has tactical speed but has competed as a pacesetter and presser lately. Ethan West gave the 3-year-old a confidence-building trip against allowance-class runners in his last start, and Chunk of Gold hasn’t been out of the money in four starts at 1 1/8 miles. Exotics.

6.  Rattle N Roll (7-2)

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Rattle N Roll closed to finish second to Hit Show and a neck ahead of Gosger in the Fayette last out. It was his best finish since winning the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3) in Saudi Arabia back in January. Between then and now, he was fifth in the Saudi Cup (G1), eighth in the Dubai World Cup, and sixth in the Lukas Classic. Rattle N Roll is the defending Clark champion and is 10: 4-1-3 at Churchill Downs. This will be his third start since getting time off following his overseas efforts, and McPeek has 18% wins with a 51% in-the-money rate with runners third off the layoff in the last year. McPeek’s go-to rider Brian Hernandez Jr. has the call for the first time since last year’s Clark. Contender.

Last year’s Clark hero was no match for Forever Young and Hit Show in Dubai. He needed the start in the Lukas Classic, his first off a long layoff. The Ken McPeek trainee ran a spectacular race in the Fayette. Fourteen lengths behind after a half-mile, Rattle N Roll made a sustained drive, circled the field nine wide and closed within a length of Hit Show. The performance earned Rattle N Role a 104 Brisnet rating, and he previously has strung together back-to-back victories. Yet I wonder how much the Fayette effort took out of him. Exotics.

7.  Who Dey (30-1)

Trained by Thomas Drury Jr., Who Dey enters off a head victory as the odds-on favorite in the state-bred Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes. Although this colt has played in state-bred company as often as not, when he does show up in graded stakes, he takes home a piece of the pie. He was fourth in the 2024 Pat Day Mile (G2), second in the 2024 Matt Winn (G3), and fourth in the Ack Ack (G3) this year. His speed figures aren’t great, and the Ack Ack (G3) didn’t come up strong, so his being 30-1 on the morning line is no surprise. But he absolutely is worth a play underneath. Luan Machado has the mount. Live long-shot exotics.

The consistent 4-year-old Who Dey has finished off the board only twice in his 13-race career and was fourth both times, so he’s always picked up a paycheck, which is an owner’s dream. Tom Drury Jr. has placed Who Day in positions where he can win against lesser types, and he did OK against a strong Grade 2 field in the Pat Day Mile despite being bumped, missing second place by a nose and head. The Clark is Who Dey’s first try at 1 1/8 miles, but he’s won from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles, so that’s not a concern. He’s jumping in class, but as Ashley stated, he’s a live long-shot exotics play.

8.  Willy D’s (12-1)

Trained by Mike Maker, Willy D’s enters off a seventh-place finish in the Lukas Classic. In his only other graded start, Willy D’s was second in the Charles Town Classic (G2), which I am going to toss because of the track configuration. The gelding also has hit the board only once at Churchill Downs. Tyler Gaffalione has the call. Pass.

Willy D’s was an uncharacteristic seventh in the Lukas Classic after setting solid fractions. He was in trouble while tiring down the stretch and had to take up as the also tiring Prince of Power came over, almost knocking Willy D’s into the rail. Even without that issue, Willy D’s was toast. The Mike Maker trainee will be part of the pace, and I predict a similar result. Pass.

9.  Magnitude (9-2)

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude was on the Kentucky Derby trail before suffering a setback. Since returning to the races, he was the runaway winner of the Iowa Derby, a well-beaten third in the Travers (G1), and a competitive second in the Pennsylvania Derby. This will be the colt’s first attempt against elders, and considering who beat him to the wire in his last two starts (Sovereignty, Bracket Buster and Baeza), I think he’s well prepared for this spot. He has hit the board only once at Churchill Downs, but his two off-the-board finishes were as a juvenile, and he certainly has matured and improved since then. He earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in three of his last four starts and will have Jose Ortiz as his jockey. Contender.

Magnitude is a confirmed pacesetter. At least, he was until he showed another dimension in the Pennsylvania Derby. The Steve Asmussen trainee didn’t have his customary zip coming out of the gate and found himself in rush-hour traffic behind the pace for most of the race. Magnitude lacked room at the top of the stretch, but once clear, he gained ground late to grab second place, 2 1/4 lengths behind Baeza. So, will Magnitude take his customary position at the front or try to race? Contender.