Head to Head: 3 Grade 1 winners clash Saturday in Cotillion

Laurie

Ashley

1. Scottish Lassie (9-5)

Scottish Lassie had a highland fling in the 1 1/8 mile CCA Oaks (G1), dancing home 15 lengths in front of three other fillies, including Dry Powder. No one bothered to challenge, so the Jorge Abreu trainee sauntered home in 1:50.23 with a leisurely 13.24-second final furlong. Scottish Lassie does her best work on the lead. Contender.

Trained by Jorge Abreu, Scottish Lassie was the runaway winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) over underwhelming returnee Immersive, last year’s champion 2-year-old filly. Third place finisher Dry Powder won the Cathryn Sophia Stakes next out. Scottish Lassie received a field best 103 Brisnet speed rating for the CCA Oaks (G1). With a dry track, a clean break, and an unpressured lead, she could prove formidable. Abreu is just 5% wins, with Scottish Lassie accounting for two of three, and 32% in-the-money in graded stakes over the last five years. Joel Rosario has the return call from the CCA Oaks (G1). Contender.

2.  La Cara (7-2)

La Cara was a stewards scratch from the CCA Oaks due to a barn quarantine, so she missed some training. That cost her in the 1 1/4 mile Alabama, where, despite setting a glacial pace, La Cara ran out of oats and finished fourth, 14 lengths behind Nitrogen. I’m drawing a line through that performance. Previously, the Mark Casse trainee bested Scottish Lassie by three lengths in the Acorn. Both fillies love to wing it on the lead. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, La Cara took the Acorn (G1) field gate-to-wire two starts back but tired to finish fourth in the Alabama (G1) last out. As Laurie pointed out, she likely lost some fitness due to that barn quarantine. I, too, will put a line through that race. However, while I can excuse her effort in the Alabama, I cannot look past her poor showing in the Kentucky Oaks, where she finished 13 lengths behind in Good Cheer in ninth. The surface likely wasn’t the issue as she had no issues over similar going next out in the Acorn (G1). Regular rider Dylan Davis has the call. Exotics.

3. Clicquot (8-1)

The up-and-coming Clicquot popped the cork in her last three tests by a combined 11 3/4 lengths, including a four-length score in the Indiana Oaks (G3). Quality Road’s pretty gray daughter is out of Grade 2-placed Royal Obsession (Tapit), and the extended family includes Grade 1-winning heroine Magnificent Song. The Brendan Walsh trainee’s late pace figures are on the low end, but she rated in her last start, which could earn her a check. Exotics.   

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Clicquot enters on a three race winning streak, including a fourth length triumph in the Indiana Oaks (G3) in her stakes debut. She has a career-high 96 Brisnet speed rating but did regress in the Indiana Oaks, bringing in an 89. She faces other classy speed and will need to take a step or two forward to be truly competitive. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has the mount. Exotics.

4. Indy Bay (8-1)

Indy Bay was indy winner’s circle in four of her last five starts, all sprints, including a 1 3/4 length victory in the Charles Town Oaks (G2) over Not Too Late. Indy Bay’s distaff line is speed-oriented. By Take Charge Indy, she is out of Discovery Bay (Speightstown), and the second dam is Grade 1 sprinter Harmony Lodge. Race Lens shows Indy Bay’s half-siblings are zero for six beyond seven furlongs, although one is multiple placed up to 1 1/8 miles on Woodbine’s Tapeta. Saffie Joseph, Jr.’s charge has speed ratings in the 90s and likes to press the pace. Numbers-wise, she needs to duplicate her Charles Town effort while stretching out and stepping up. However, she has shown talent. Exotics.

Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., Indy Bay bested Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Vodka With a Twist last out in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). She previously defeated Clicquot in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park but has never raced beyond seven furlongs. Indy Bay’s speed ratings have also been on the decline. I personally don’t find this filly to be a good fit for this race. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Irad Ortiz, Jr., who will ride Clicquot instead. Pass.

5. Not Too Late (30-1)

Not Too Late isn’t living up to her moniker. She got brave on the front end in Monmouth’s six-furlong Maryfield Stakes two starts back. That was the first time she visited the winner’s circle since last September. The only positive is that the Uriah St. Lewis trainee likes Parx. Not Too Late’s name reminds me of the Carole King hit, “It's Too Late.” Pass.

Trained by Uriah St. Lewis, Not Too Late was most recently fifth, 6 1/2 lengths behind winner Indy Bay, in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). She was similarly beaten earlier in the year in the Miss Preakness (G3). Not Too Late has never raced beyond a mile, and St. Lewis is winless with a 42% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. He’s also just 5% wins with a 16% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Sonny Leon has the mount, and I believe Three Days Grace had it right when they sang “it’s not too late, it’s never too late.” It’s not too late to scratch as long as the gates haven’t opened. Pass.

6. Ourdaydreaminggirl (20-1)

Ourdaydreaminggirl is a useful sort, and I bet the owners are having fun with her. Instagrand’s daughter hasn’t placed worse than fourth in her eight starts. She circled the field in the local prep, the listed Cathryn Sophia Stakes, and passed tired horses to gain second place, 4 1/2 lengths behind Dry Powder. The Louis Linder Jr. trainee earned a career-best 90 Brisnet rating, and her 104 late pace rating is the second-highest in this field. Ourdaydreaminggirl worked a bullet five furlongs in 59.91 seconds in her second-to-last breeze and has tactical speed. However, she must duplicate her last while stretching out and stepping up. Pass.

Trained by Louis Linder, Jr., Ourdaydreaminggirl enters off a runner-up effort to Dry Powder in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes off 18-1 odds. This filly is 6: 2-2-1 at Parx, but she will be stretching out and stepping up in class in this spot. Linder, Jr. is winless with a 23% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Eliseo Ruiz has the return call. Pass.

7. Good Cheer (5-2)

The Kentucky Oaks heroine Good Cheer failed as the favorite in her last two starts. The Brad Cox trainee relaxed in third behind a slow pace in the 1 1/4 mile Alabama (G1). She made a wide move around the turn and closed to within 1 1/2 lengths of Nitrogen while having to switch paths due to that one’s antics. Good Cheer earned a career best 101 speed rating, but her late pace figures have remained in the 80s since the Kentucky Oaks. Good Cheer has class and tactical speed. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Good Cheer was the undisputed queen of the 3-year-old filly division during her seven race win streak, but she enters this spot off two straight losses. She was fifth of six in the Acorn (G1), finishing 9 1/4 lengths behind winner La Cara, and second in the Alabama (G1). Ironically she did earn a career best 101 Brisnet speed rating for her runner-up effort in the Alabama (G1). Her previous best had been a mediocre 95 while winning the Kentucky Oaks. Regular rider Luis Saez has the call. Contender.

8. Dry Powder (10-1)

Dry Powder has finished first or second in each start except the 1 1/8 mile CCA Oaks, where she had the worst performance of her career, finishing 21 1/2 lengths behind Scottish Lassie in the CCA Oaks (G1). In her defense, Dry Powder hit the gate, which took her out of her favored pace-pressing running style. The Chad Summers trainee pressed a slow pace before opening up in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes while racing erratically. She earned a career-best 95 speed rating and 93 late pace figure. Like other long shots, she needs to step up her game to be competitive. Pass.

Trained by Chad Summers, Dry Powder has never finished out of the trifecta in her short career. She’s traded blows with Scottish Lassie, finishing ahead of that filly in an optional claimer at Aqueduct but then getting demolished by her in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Dry Powder most recently won the Cathryn Sophia Stakes, the local prep for the Cotillion, by 4 1/4 lengths, earning a career best 95 Brisnet speed rating. Summers is 5% wins with a 24% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years with his last win coming in 2023 when Clapton won the Lukas Classic (G2). Antonio Fresu takes over from Luis Saez, who will ride Good Cheer instead. Pass.