Head to Head: 2 picks against Buetane in Hopeful at Saratoga

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Curtain Call (9-2)

Trained by Mark Casse, Curtain Call finished second in his debut behind Obliteration, the runaway winner of the Sanford (G3) in his next start and second to Curtain Call’s own stablemate Ewing in the Saratoga Special (G2). Curtain Call along with third-place finisher Clocker Special won at second asking, sprinting off to an 8 1/2-length victory despite stumbling at the break. None from that field has won in subsequent starts. Curtain Call received a 70 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut and a 94 for his maiden-breaking victory. José Ortiz, who was aboard in both prior starts, has the return call. Contender.

In his second start Curtain Call rated inside horses on the rail and then tipped out in the stretch to splash home by 8 1/2 lengths over Saratoga’s sloppy track. He completed the six furlongs with a sharp 1:10.31 including a 12.82-second final furlong. The effort was good enough for a lofty 94 Brisnet Speed Rating. By second-crop sire Tiz the Law, Curtain Call is out of unraced Into Mischief mare Deep Troubles. Class in his extended family includes multiple Grade 1 heroine Artemis Agrotera and Grade 1 winner and sire Stephen Got Even. Mark Casse gave Curtain Call a pair of quick pre-race, four-furlong moves over the main track, including a 47.83-secon drill in company with recent maiden winner Our Magical Moon. Curtain Call settled off the filly’s flank before being let out in the stretch, where he galloped out slightly in front while under a hold. He has experience breaking from the inside and can rate behind the speed. Contender.

2.  Flyin Hawaiian (20-1)

Trained by Butch Reid, Flyin Hawaiian debuted in a five-furlong maiden event at Monmouth Park, finishing fourth as the favorite. Runner-up Wise Words finished 22 1/4 lengths behind Curtain Call in his next race, and the only other next-out winner won at Colonial Downs. He made his second start in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden race at Parx and won by 8 1/2 lengths. Runner-up Freely Held was a next-out winner, and two others hit the board in their next race. Flyin Hawaiian received a 70 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut and an 89 for his win. Reid has 10% wins with a 35% in-the-money rate in graded stakes and 14% wins with a 29% in-the-money clip in 2-year-old graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Luis Sáez takes over from Paco López. Pass.

Flyin Hawaiian lived up to his name with an 8 1/2-length score in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden event at Parx under hand urging. He earned an 89 Brisnet Speed Rating with a 90 late-pace figure. Butch Reid gave the colt a trio of breezes at Saratoga this month including a second-to-last, five-furlong move in 1:01.23. By the second third-crop sire Maximus Mischief, Flyin Hawaiian is a full brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Maximus Meridius, who captured those wins at Aqueduct. Flyin Hawaiian’s siblings are competitive at Parx, Aqueduct and Thistledown, so class is a concern. Pass.    

3.  Romeo (3-1)

Now in the care of Steve Asmussen, Romeo was the 10 1/4-length victor of a 4 1/2-furlong maiden event at Laurel Park in his debut. He finished a distant third in the Tremont Stakes to undefeated filly Mythical, who won the Adirondack (G3) next out. Romeo then won the Bashford Manor in his third start. Runner-up Comport won the Ellis Park Juvenile next out. Asmussen has a 14% win rate with a 48% in-the-money rate among runners first after the trainer switch. Joel Rosario takes over from Xavier Pérez, who rode the colt in all of his prior starts for John Robb. Contender.

Romeo enters the Hopeful off a 3 3/4-length victory in the Bashford Manor. He set a new stakes record of 1:08.61 for six furlongs, getting his final furlong in 12.40. He recorded a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating, the highest in the Hopeful field. By second-crop sire Honor A. P., Romeo is out of Not For Love mare Fancy Love. His extended family includes 2008 champion 2-year-old colt Midshipman and Grade 1 hero Frosted. Steve Asmussen gave Romeo a series of five-furlong breezes at Saratoga culminating in a pre-race bullet timed at 1:00.88. Romeo had time between his record-setting performance and the Hopeful. He has captured both victories on the lead, so it remains to be seen if he can rate or if he simply is the fastest horse in the field and doesn’t need to. Contender.

4.  Aye Eye (15-1)

Trained by Joe Orseno, Aye Eye debuted as a winner going six furlongs at Saratoga. The son of Essential Quality broke from the gate like he was moving through cold molasses and spotted the field enough distance that he was nowhere on the viewing screen. He put in an absolutely ridiculous rally, weaving through rivals in the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths. None from that field has made a subsequent start, and Romeo received just a 79 Brisnet Speed Rating for his remarkable effort. Orseno is 8% in wins with a 27% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years. His last graded win came with Hades in the 2024 Holy Bull (G3). Orseno has not had a runner hit the board in a graded stakes at Saratoga. Javier Castellano has the return call. Pass.

Aye Eye made a where-did-he-come-from rally through traffic to score a 1 1/2-length victory in his debut, completing six furlongs at 1:12.64. A surprising 13.40-second final furlong indicated he was simply passing tired horses. The move still was impressive for a first-time starter, since Aye Eye was off slow and was 19 lengths behind in the early going. Despite the eye-catching move, the Joe Orseno trainee received only a 79 Brisnet Speed Rating but has a field-high 98 late-pace figure. By the sixth-leading first-crop sire and two-time champ Essential Quality, Aye Eye is out of multiple-winning stakes sprinter Divine Queen. The extended family includes multiple graded winner The Player. The pretty gray Aye Eye had a pre-race, four-furlong move in 49.0 seconds. Exotics.

5.  Buetane (2-1)

Trained by Bob Baffert, Buetane scampered off to a 3 1/2-length victory in a six-furlong maiden event at Del Mar to kick off his career. He received a 93 Brisnet Speed Rating as the odds-on favorite. Runner-up Falcon Jet is the only one to have made another start and once again was second. Baffert doesn’t typically ship his best 2-year-olds to Saratoga. In fact, a Race Lens search shows that he has had only one juvenile graded-stakes starter at Saratoga in the last five years.  Mission Beach finished fifth for him in the 2023 Hopeful. Flavien Prat takes over from Juan Hernández. Contender.

In his Del Mar debut, Buetane tracked the early pacesetter before turning on the afterburners and opening by 3 1/2 lengths under a hand ride, completing his final furlong in 12.69 seconds. Bob Baffert gave him a pair of recent quick, five-furlong breezes, including a pre-race bullet 58.4 seconds in company with older multiple graded-placed filly Howin. He settled off the flank of the larger mare and was even with her in the stretch. He was given a small shoulder tap to keep going through the gallop-out. Buetane was professional and within himself. Another son of Tiz the Law, Buetane is a half to stakes-winning sprinter Let My People Go and to Grade 3-placed Der Lu and stakes-placed Smartly Agree. Their second dam is Grade 1 heroine Dream of Summer, dam of Creative Cause, Destin and 2020 Personal Ensign winner Vexatious. Shipping for the Hopeful is a surprising move for Baffert, since he does not have any other runners this weekend. Exotics.

6.  Soldier N Diplomat (6-1)

Also from the Asmussen barn, Soldier N Diplomat won his debut by a determined neck, earning an 86 Brisnet Speed Rating. The odds-on favorite tracked the early pace, took over in the stretch and prayed for the wire to come as runner-up Accost charged at him late. Two from the field hit the trifecta in their next start. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return call. Exotics.

Soldier N Diplomat chased the early pace in his debut and then took over in the stretch. He started going up and down instead of forward, thinking about passing the horse to his inside. Once he put away that rival, Soldier N Diplomat held off a late run by Accost. Soldier N Diplomat wasn’t concerned, as he had one ear up and the other listening to his late-charging rival. Although he completed six furlongs at 1:11.87, the Steve Asmussen trainee went his final furlong in a glacial 13.50 seconds. By Army Mule out of Violence mare Diplomatic Miss, Soldier N Diplomat’s second dam is multiple Grade 1-placed Miraculous Miss. Soldier N Diplomat had a second-to-last, five-furlong breeze in 1:00.45. He’s still figuring things out and needs improvement. Pass.

7.  Emphasis (12-1)

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Emphasis went gate to wire in his debut, winning the six-furlong event by a length while taken in hand late. Three from that field have finished in the trifecta in their next starts. Emphasis earned an 89 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Ricardo Santana Jr. has the return call. Exotics.

In his debut Emphasis quarter-horsed out of the gate and kept going. He showed determination with flattened ears and a burst of speed when he turned back a challenger to win by a measured length. The Todd Pletcher trainee completed six furlongs at 1:11.83, with a 13.35-second final furlong. By leading first-crop sire Yaupon, Emphasis is out of multiple graded-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael. He is a half to 2022 Iroquois (G3) winner Curly Jack and to multiple stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Emphasis owns the typical workout pattern of Petcher trainees, slow and even. He had a lesson in rating this month with an overmatched maiden him early before drawing even. Exotics.

8.  Ted Noffey (9-2)

Also from the Pletcher barn, Ted Noffey was a debut winner at Saratoga, taking a 6 1/2-furlong event by 1 1/2 lengths. He received an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating. Only one colt from that field has made a second start, finishing fourth on the turf. John Velázquez gets the leg up again. Exotics.

In his debut Ted Noffey settled in fourth place outside a pair of rivals. He joined the leader at the top of the stretch and had to think about passing. Once clear, he held off another rival by 1 1/2 lengths. The Todd Pletcher trainee completed 6 1/2 furlongs at 1:17.56 with a 6.51-second final half-furlong, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating with a sharp 91 late-pace figure. Ted Noffey owns a trio of four-furlong works in 49 and change, typical for the Pletcher stable. Exotics.