Head to Head: Handicappers differ underneath in Golden Rod

Laurie

Ashley

1. Baracca (15-1)

Baracca was professional in both starts at Churchill. In her initial start facing 10 rivals, she pressed the pace on the outside, vied between horses and opened up by 2 1/4 lengths, completing six furlongs in 1:10.55 with a 12.61-second final furlong. Next out in an allowance-optional claiming contest, the Brendan Walsh trainee had the speed to vie for the lead but settled on the rail behind the pace. She athletically cut the corner, put away rivals and coasted home under a hand ride by 2 1/4 lengths. Baracca completed seven furlongs in 1:24.85, with a 13.30-second final furlong. Her Brisnet rating improved slightly to 87.

By third-crop sire Oscar Performance, Baracca has an illustrious pedigree. She’s a half to Power Broker, winner of the FrontRunner (G1), now the American Pharoah. She is also half to stakes-placed Smart Shopping, dam of Preakness hero Seize the Grey plus stakes winner, Fierce Boots, who bore multiple stakes-placed router Portos. Baracca is bred for two turns and is accomplished in large fields. Live long shot. 

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Baracca is undefeated in two starts, both at Churchill Downs. She won her debut, a six furlong event, by three-quarter lengths, and then took a seven furlong optional claimer by 2 1/4 lengths. The ninth place finisher from her debut Not a Lady won her next two starts and is now stakes placed. Her second race included Schuylerville runner-up My Sweetheart, Ellis Park Debutante third place finisher Prowess, Adirondack (G3) fourth place finisher Tiz in Sight, and Prairie Meadows Debutante runner-up Lady Captain. Baracca’s Brisnet speed rating improved from an 85 to an 87, and Walsh is 17% winners with a 46% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. Axel Concepcion has the return call. Exotics.

2. Essential Coffee (30-1)

Although she won at first asking in May, Essential Coffee was disqualified and had to start over. Over the summer, she threw a couple of clunkers, but got the job done in her last effort, a seven-furlong maiden contest at Keeneland. Where, like her debut, she took command out of the gate and ground under the wire by a length. The effort wasn’t visually impressive, and the Steve Asmussen trainee stopped the clock in 1:25.18, with a snoozing 14.13 final furlong. The daughter of Nyquist is out of the Grade 3-winning sprinter, the Malibu Moon mare Winding Way, making Essential Coffee a half to Skinner, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Essential Coffee is well bred, but has only won on the lead in tepid final times. She needs to improve to be a factor. Pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Essential Coffee romped home an 8 1/2 length winner in her debut but was disqualified to second for interference. Personally, I felt that the order of finish wasn’t affected because Essential Coffee was moving so smoothly over the sloppy surface. The declared winner finished fifth in the My Dear Stakes at Woodbine next out. In her second start, the filly was seventh, 20 3/4 lengths behind winner Percy’s Bar, in the Debutante at Churchill Downs. Percy’s Bar was then second in the Spinaway (G1), won the Alcibiades (G1), and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Asmussen tried her in maiden company again with Essential Coffee running third, beaten by sixteen lengths, in a 6 1/2-furlong event at Saratoga. The winner and runner-up of that race were sixth and fifth respectively in the Frizette (G1). The daughter of Nyquist most recently won a seven-furlong maiden event at Keeneland. This race has thus far produced two next-out winners. Essential Coffee’s speed ratings have ranged from a 53 in the Debutante to an 88 in her last start. Corey Lanerie will be the filly’s fifth jockey in as many starts. Pass.

3. Just Singing (15-1)

The late-running Just Singing graduated in her second start when stretching to two turns. The striking white-faced filly broke slowly and hit the gate, but it didn’t stop her from circling the field like they were tied to the rail. She hit a high note opening up by 3 1/4 lengths and completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.70, with a 6.06-second final half-furlong. Although the final time was the slowest of the day, her final half-furlong was the fastest. Justify’s daughter is half to a pair of stakes winners; multiple graded winning sprinter-miler and sire Danzig Candy, and multiple stakes winner Cedartown. Their dam Talkin and Singing (Songandaprayer) is half to multiple Grade 1 winning turf veteran, Better Talk Now. The Kent Sweezey trainee’s 99 late pace figure is the highest in the Golden Rod. She breezed a second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 59.2 seconds and should get the pace to set up her late kick. Live long shot.

Trained by Kent Sweezey, Just Singing was fourth on debut, finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind winner Americathegreat, who was fourth next out in the Rags to Riches Stakes. The daughter of Justify won at second asking, taking a 1 1/16 mile maiden race by 3 1/4 lengths. Only one from that race has made a subsequent start, finishing twelfth. Sweezey has just one graded stakes win in his career and is 30% in-the-money in graded stakes over the past five years. Just Singing’s best speed rating is an 88. Regular rider Luan Machado retains the mount. Pass.

4. Vita Mia (30-1)

Vita Mia owns one victory in five starts, and recently placed in a pair of stakes at Gulfstream. By first-crop sire Engage, Vita Mia is the second starter out of Distorted Sunrays (Drosselmeyer). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-winning sprinter Sunrise Smarty. Vita Mia has tactical speed, but her speed ratings decreased in her last two starts. Pass.

Trained by Armando De La Cerda, Vita Mia ships in from Gulfstream Park where she’s made all five of her career starts. She has just one win but has only been worse then second once, finishing seventh in her debut. She has runner-up finishes in the Hallandale Beach Stakes on dirt and the Our Dear Peggy Stakes on turf in her last two starts. Vita Mia’s best Brisnet speed rating is the 87 she received when breaking her maiden, but she earned just a 77, albeit on turf, last out. De La Cerda takes the blinkers off Vita Mia but is winless with a 20% in-the-money rate over the last year with that angle. De La Cerda is 10% wins with a 30% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, per Race Lens. Junior Alvarado has the mount for the first time. Pass.

5. Letmecounttheways (9-2)

Letmecounttheways gets a class test after counting 11 1/2 ways to beat New York-bred company in her two career starts. The Mike Maker trainee most recently destroyed seven others in the Maid of the Mist Stakes, completing a mile in 1:35.94, with a 12.86-second final furlong without getting out of second gear in a paid workout. Although her Brisnet rating decreased, her 90 late pace figure is competitive.

By leading first-crop sire Yaupon, Letmecounttheways is the third competitor out of the winning Dialed In mare, Draft. The second generation of the female family includes the precocious Iroquois (G3) victor, Dennis’ Moment. Letmecounttheways had a trio of moderate breezes at Churchill, an indication that the Golden Rod was the next goal. Contender.

Trained by Mike Maker, Letmecounttheways is undefeated in two starts, both in New York-bred company. She wasn’t seriously tested in either race, winning her six furlong debut by 5 1/2 lengths and the one-mile Maid of the Mist Stakes by six lengths. However, her speed rating dropped from a 95 to an 88 last out. Maker is just 8% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years. Joel Rosario has the return call from the Maid of the Mist. Contender.

6. Life of Joy (4-1)

Life of Joy is also undefeated in both starts, including a gritty 2 1/4 length victory over a tenacious The Grumpy Rabbit in the Rags to Riches Stakes. Brad Cox’s charge completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.76, with a 6.46 final half-furlong, good enough for an 87 speed rating and 92 late pace figure. Gun Runner’s daughter is the first foal out of the stakes-placed turf miler, Jordan’s Leo (Malibu Moon). Class skips to the third generation of the family, and is anchored by the third dam, Grade 1 winner Jeannie Jones, who was successful from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in top company. Life of Joy was a one-run closer in her debut and employed pace-pressing tactics in the Rags to Riches. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Life of Joy is undefeated in two starts. She cruised to the easiest of victories in her debut, winning a mile maiden event at Indianapolis by 14 3/4 lengths. She then successfully stepped up in class to win the Rags to Riches Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths over runner-up The Grumpy Rabbit. Her speed rating improved from an 80 to an 87. I don’t need to expound upon Cox’s record, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the return call from the Rags to Riches. Contender.

7. Raspberry (30-1)

Still a maiden, Raspberry was a bit too leisurely down the lane in both starts, missing by a combined 5 3/4 lengths. She looked like a winner in her debut but was nailed on the line by a late closer. Next, she dueled through quick fractions, and once again, someone came “in through the out door” to go by her in the stretch, leaving her to settle for a clear second. The Whit Beckman trainee’s speed rating improved to 83 in her second start. Medaglia d’Oro’s daughter is the first foal out of Grade 3-placed sprinter Bramble Berry (Brethren). The dam’s half sisters are stakes winners from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Raspberry showed tenacity and talent in both starts. However, may be better suited to a stalking or closing position rather than trying to carry her speed. If Saez takes her back, she could have a say in the exotics, but even though I love her I have to pass.

Trained by Whit Beckman, Raspberry finished second in both prior starts. Both starts were at seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. Raspberry’s debut race has produced two next out winners with a drop in class. Beckman will outfit Raspberry with a new set of blinkers but is 6% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip with first time blinkers over the last year. Luis Saez will be the filly’s third jockey in as many starts. Pass.

8. Wonzee Weather (30-1)

The pretty gray Wonzee Weather is the Golden Rod’s “why” horse. She was beaten 21 lengths in her only start on dirt, and wasn’t much closer on turf as a sprinter miler. Cupid’s daughter is the third foal out of Pretty Zippy (City Zip). Class skips a generation in this family. Wonzee Weather’s second dam is Grade 3-winning sprinter Pretty Prolific. Class jumps to the fourth dam, 1979 champion mare Waya. Wonzee Weather closes well on turf and may become a turf router when she matures. Pass.

Trained by Darrin Miller, Wonzee Weather is still a maiden after four starts. Three of them were on turf, and the fourth race resulted in a fifth place, 21 1/4 length thumping in the Alcibiades (G1). Her last three races produced a 70 Brisnet speed rating. Miller hasn’t won a graded-stakes race since 2018, and his only graded stakes win on dirt came in the 2007 Blue Grass (G1) when Dominican beat favored Street Sense by a nose. Regular rider Chase Miller, Darrin Miller’s son, has the mount. Pass.

9. Atropa (8-1)

In her second start and first around two turns, Atropa relaxed on the outside through soft early fractions. She took command around the far turn and opened up by 10 lengths being aggressively ridden the entire way. The Cherie DeVaux trainee completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.50 with a 6.78-second final half-furlong and improved her Brisnet rating to 88, although her late pace figure was 87 despite the aggressive ride. Into Mischief’s daughter is the second foal out of Bellera (Bernardini), a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. The second dam, multiple graded-placed sprinter Habiboo, is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and sire, Street Boss. She’s also the second dam of multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter-miler and sire, Jack Christopher. Even though her race was visually impressive, Atropa’s final time and speed ratings are low, and she’ll need improvement to win. Pass.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Atropa was sixth on debut in the slop at Saratoga. She caught a fast track in her second start and also stretches out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 mile and drew off to win by ten lengths under Jose Ortiz. Spa Prospector, the winner of Atropa’s debut race, was third in the Adirondack (G3) next out. Measure, runner-up to Atropa last out, was a next out winner, and two others finished second next out. Her Brisnet speed rating jumped from a 65 to an 88, potentially setting the filly up to bounce here. DeVaux is 13% wins with a 45% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, per Brisnet. Jose Ortiz has the return call. Exotics.

10. Coco Connect (30-1)

Coco Connect won her second start, holding on by a half length. She was one-paced, with a choppy gait and ears half-cocked despite an aggressive ride. The John Ennis trainee completed about seven furlongs at Keeneland in 1:29.19 with a 17.60 late split, netting a 76 late pace figure, one of the lowest in this field.

Connect’s daughter is the second foal out of the unraced Commissioner mare Miss Chanel. The dam’s half-sister Awesome Baby is a multiple graded winning sprinter-miler. On paper, Coco Connect isn’t fast enough to handle this group. Pass.

Trained by John Ennis, Coco Connect was never involved in her debut. She was off a step slow, raced at the rear of the field, and beat rivals that were going backwards. Coco Connect got off to a better start in her second outing and earned a three-quarter length victory sprinting seven furlongs. She beat Pocahontas (G3) third place finisher Joke Maker in that race, but Joke Maker remains a maiden after five starts. Although Coco Connect’s speed rating improved from a 66 to an 81, that’s not enough to get the job done here. Ennis takes the blinkers off for this race and is 25% wins with a 50% in-the-money clip with that angle over the last year. However, he is also winless with a 22% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners and is 8% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year. Adam Beschizza takes over from Morales. Pass.

11. Bella Ballerina (10-1)

In her Keeneland debut, Bella Ballerina circled the field and danced to a 4 1/4 length victory under a hand ride and hardly being asked. She completed six furlongs in 1:11.36, with a 12.56 final furlong for trainer Brendan Walsh, and her 90 late pace figure is competitive.

This daughter of Street Sense is a half-sister to 2023 champion 3-year-old filly Pretty Mischievous, who was third in the 2022 Golden Rod. Their dam is the precocious Grade 1 heroine, Pretty City Dancer (Tapit). That one is a half to Grade 1 heroine, Lear’s Princess, who bested Rags to Riches in the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle Stakes. Even-though regression is always a possibility in a filly’s second start, Bella Ballerina had plenty of time to recover. Exotics.

Also from the Walsh barn, Bella Ballerina was a debut winner, prancing to a 4 1/4 length victory sprinting six furlongs. Runner-up Debbie Doll was a next out winner in a high-level maiden claiming race. As Laurie already covered, Bella Ballerina has a heckuva of a pedigree. She earned an 87 Brisnet speed rating and can certainly improve when stretching out for the first time. Walsh is 17% wins with a 41% in-the-money clip with first time routers over the past year. Older half-sister Pretty Sassy, who is also in the care of Walsh, won her first race when stretching out to a route. Tyler Gaffalione has the return call. Live long shot.

12. Explora

Explora is scratched.

13. The Grumpy Rabbit (15-1)

After placing third in the Alcibiades (G1), The Grumpy Rabbit hopped to the lead in the Rags to Riches and set a slow pace. She fought hard through the stretch inside of Life of Joy but ultimately gave way. Ken McPeek’s charge’s Brisnet rating decreased four points to 88, but her 87 late pace figure is competitive.

Not This Time’s daughter is the second foal out of the unraced Midnight Lute mare Midtown Traffic. The mare is half to Whitney (G1) winner and sire, Cross Traffic, and the second dam is multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter, Stop Traffic. The Grumpy Rabbit is happiest as a pacesetter/presser. She’ll have to hop to it to get a jump on the field and avoid a wide trip. I expect the pace will be quicker than it was in her last start. Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, The Grumpy Rabbit won at second asking when switching from turf to dirt. She was then third in the Alcibiades (G1) behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Tommy Jo and the disqualified Percy’s Bar and second in the Rags to Riches, 2 1/4 lengths behind winner Life of Joy. She earned a career best 88 Brisnet speed rating in the Alcibiades (G1) and a still respectable 84 last out in the Rags to Riches. I don’t like the far outside post for this front-running filly, but she has so far consistently gotten a piece of the pie. Despite the draw, she stands a better chance of running well than many in this field. Brian Hernandez, Jr., who was aboard when she broke her maiden, has the mount. Exotics.