Hawthorne Derby fair odds: Really Good is not a great bet

Stop me if you've heard this one before, maybe even this week. A recent maiden winner on turf steps up in class to win a $100,000 stakes in the Upper Midwest.

It happened on Wednesday at Canterbury Park, where Golden Bandit scored a 2-1 upset as the third choice in the Canterbury Derby. It could happen on Sunday at Hawthorne Race Course with no. 6 Out of Deduction in the Hawthorne Derby.

Adding to the comparison is Mike Maker trained the Canterbury Derby favorite Worthington, and he has the morning line favorite here in no. 1 Really Good. Also expected to take money is no. 5 Act a Fool, an Oscar Performance colt making his first start on turf for trainer Larry Rivelli.

As is typical, it is not as if these short-priced horses can't win. Really Good is my most likely winner at 2-1, and Act a Fool is dangerous on the front end and given a 20 percent chance at 4-1 by me. But neither of these horses is likely to offer those prices, whereas Out of Deduction is 9-2 on the morning line and should be every bit of the 3-1 that I want based on fair odds.

Out of Deduction blitzed a field of 10 maidens in his second career start, making a big move on the far turn after breaking from post 9 and drawing off to win by 11 lengths. The speed ratings came back fast, and as long as Act a Fool does not get too far away early, he should be tough again.

No. 2 Wolf Hunter also is worth watching the board. The 15-race maiden ran well in his turf debut last out and is likely to be overlooked with no win, but he fits well enough given the price.