Haskell fair odds: Use this long shot with Journalism

Photo: Bill Denver/ Equi-Photo

Jounalism will look to snap a four-race losing streak by favorites in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park.

The Preakness Stakes winner is likely to be odds-on when he faces seven others in the marquee event at the Jersey shore's greatest stretch. The last two Preakness winners to compete in the Haskell were American Pharoah and Exaggerator, both winners. Overall this century, Preakness winners are 7-for-11 in the Haskell, including eventual Horses of the Year Point Given, Rachel Alexandra and American Pharoah.

Journalism is 4-5 on the morning line but could threaten 1-2 territory or lower. Since 1994, horses 1-2 or less in the Haskell are 7-for-7. All that is to say, there is historical precedence for well-backed Haskell entrants to run to those expectations.

So, I am not looking to try to beat him even if he takes more money than my 3-5 fair odds would allow for a win bet. The name recognition for the expected second to fourth choices, some combination of Burnham Square, Gosger and Goal Oriented, should keep the price on Kentucky Outlaw robust.

Kentucky Outlaw flashed serious potential when winning his first two career starts by a combined 13 1/2 lengths, but a nightmare voyage in the Tesio Stakes derailed graded-stakes plans. Then a smart pressing trip win in the Long Branch at Monmouth must have convinced owner-trainer Felissa Dunn to try the Haskell, even after giving way on the lead in the Delaware Derby. That was a fast pace, though, and if new jockey Florent Geroux can work a similar trip in the Haskell as in the Long Branch then Kentucky Outlaw can stick around for a piece behind Journalism.

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