Haskell Invitational 2018: Odds and analysis

While Sunday’s Grade 1 Haskell Invitational won’t include the Triple Crown winner, Justify, as originally hoped, Monmouth Park’s featured race isn’t lacking in star power when it comes to the race favorite.

Good Magic, the reigning 2-year-old champion, headlines a field of seven sophomores running for a $1 million purse as well as a “Win and You’re In” spot for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. NBC will broadcast the Haskell, with post time for the summer classic estimated at 5:57 p.m. ET.

Here’s a look at the field with morning line odds:

1. Lone Sailor, 5-1 (Majestic Warrior — Tom Amoss — 11: 1-4-1 — $479,237): His last out defeat to Core Beliefs in the Ohio Derby looked eerily like Lone Sailor’s other top effort, a near miss in the Louisiana Derby. The colt looked like a winner but hung late, finishing second by a slim margin. Amoss has trained this one to run by his competition, but it hasn’t translated in the afternoon. As a result, Lone Sailor has burned plenty of wise guy money. Here, the issue may be lack of pace at which to run. Tough to trust him as a win pick at this point.

2. Navy Commander, 12-1 (Poseidon’s Warrior — Robert “Butch” Reid — 11: 5-0-1 — $186,663): This colt earned his Haskell invitation by winning Monmouth’s July 7 Long Branch Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. He enjoyed exceedingly soft fractions on the front end that day, however, and will jump into graded stakes for the first time Sunday. In his only start against higher-level competition — Pimlico’s Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard attracted some decent 3-year-olds — Navy Commander was last of six in the slop. Appears overmatched here.

3. Roaming Union, 10-1 (Union Rags — Kelly Breen — 11: 1-3-2 — $104,550): It took seven starts for this $12,000 purchase to break his maiden. Since then, he’s run four races in as many different states without a victory. Breen keeps Roaming Union to his home track for the Haskell, which follows a runner-up effort in the June 17 Pegasus Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. He lost by just a neck after dueling in the stretch. While plenty game, it looks like he could be battling for fourth or fifth at best, not a spot on the board. If you like him, you’ll sure get a price.

4. Core Beliefs, 4-1 (Quality Road — Peter Eurton — 6: 2-1-3 — $535,360): The rallying, nose Ohio Derby winner has repeatedly proven he can ship from the West Coast and put in a top effort. Now comes the class test. While competitive at the Grade 3 level so far, three starts back he finished 9 1/2 lengths behind Justify in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Obviously the Triple Crown winner isn’t in this field, but a horse capable of a similar effort, Good Magic, is the one to beat. Core Beliefs has shown early speed in previous two-turn races that could find him on the front early Sunday. He’s improved, and we’ll find out how much.

5. Bravazo, 3-1 (Awesome Again — D. Wayne Lukas — 11: 3-2-1 — $781,528): He was stuck in traffic early and appeared flat late last time in the Belmont Stakes. His best efforts arguably both came over sloppy tracks with a sixth in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Preakness Stakes. Lukas says Bravazo’s stronger for running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. We’ll find out Sunday, though given the name recognition, he’s likely to go off at a low price. Given the pace scenario, he should be near the front early. His resume’s missing a big fast track performance.

6. Good Magic, 6-5 (Curlin — Chad Brown — 7: 2-3-1 — $2,345,000): It’s a positive when plans work out, and they have since Brown got this one back in training off his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win. Two preps, the Kentucky Derby, a try at the Preakness and now the Haskell at a nine-furlong distance that seems to really suit this son of Curlin. Works have been both consistent and swift, while Good Magic continues to put a smile on Brown’s face. Looking for a third career graded stakes win, he’ll be off the pace — but not too far from it — and should prevail Sunday. It’s tough to imagine this group beating him.

7. Golden Brown, 15-1 (Offlee Wild — Patrick McBurney — 7: 3-3-0 — $209,500): The New Jersey-bred has finished outside of the exacta just once, and last time out he won Delaware Part’s Grade 3 Kent Stakes going 1 1/8 miles, although that score came on turf. But Golden Brown could prove to be more than a field filler given the pace pressing style he’s used since running around two turns. This field is void of a need-the-lead type of runner, which could let the local stick around for a piece of the purse. Don’t overlook the home team.

Summary: Good Magic is the one to beat, but I’m not so sure it’s wise to try and beat him in the wagering. He’s a potential single in multi-race wagers, while playing him over Core Beliefs, Lone Sailor and Golden Brown could yield a decent exotic payout. West Coast horses have had quite a bit of success this year shipping and winning in the 3-year-old ranks. As far as an upset threat, Core Beliefs looks like the one should he set the early fractions and look to stick around.