Haskell fair odds: Mindframe is horse to beat whoever shows up

Making a fair-odds line for the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park posed the unique challenge of not knowing the actual makeup of the field after Wednesday's draw, when eight were entered for New Jersey's premiere Thoroughbred race.

Champion 2-year-old male, multiple Grade 1 winner and beaten Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness would be the headliner, but he is undecided for the Shore's Greatest Stretch with the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) on July 27 at Saratoga also an option.

Likewise, trainer Danny Gargan did not love the rail draw for Dornoch, who was compromised from that starting position in the Kentucky Derby before returning to win the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Gargan also has the Jim Dandy as a backup prep for the Travers (G1) on Aug. 24 at Saratoga.

For the purpose of this exercise, I handicapped the race as if all were starting. This makes Mindframe a very likely play, as both Dornoch and Fierceness would take money, but they can't take money if they scratch.

The other angle to this is that if Fierceness does run, then that means Mindframe probably isn't. I totally missed the wedding with Dornoch in the Belmont, so I'm likely to try to beat him here regardless. 

So why the love for Mindframe? What's not to like, really? His first two starts were electric and then he made his Grade 1 debut and just missed to Dornoch, who ran the race of his life to win. I think it's more likely that Dornoch moves backward off that effort while Mindframe absolutely can move forward here.

I have mild interest in Timberlake. The Horse Racing Nation line projects a shorter price than the morning line does. But if he is as overlooked as the morning line thinks he might be, then I could see him being the one I try to hook up with Mindframe. Yeah, there are distance questions, but this is the type of track for him, and he has a number that's faster than everyone but the favorites we discuss above.