Haskell 2022: Debate rages over favorite in $1 million Haskell
Oceanport, N.J.
Bob Baffert, the trainer, has won the race nine times. Jack Christopher, the colt, is undefeated.
Who should be favored then to win Saturday’s 55th running of the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park?
Using the traditional morning-line odds, it is Baffert’s horse Taiba who was established as the 7-5 favorite. Jack Christopher, trainer Chad Brown’s colt who arrived from Saratoga on Friday night with a 4-for-4 record, was the 3-2 second choice.
But for those who prefer to follow the money, Jack Christopher was cut to an odds-on price of 4-5 by BetMakers, the new fixed-odds provider in New Jersey that has been taking action on the Haskell since it was drawn Wednesday afternoon. Taiba shortened from 5-2 Friday night to nearly 3-1 by the start of business Saturday morning.
“The bulk of the money, I would say close to 90 percent, is on the two favorites at the moment,” Dallas Baker, head of international operations for BetMakers, said Saturday morning.
| Haskell fixed odds | Open | Fri. | Sat. | Frac. | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cyberknife | $7.00 | $10.00 | $11.00 | 10-1 | 6-1 |
| 2 Taiba | $3.50 | $3.50 | $3.20 | 3-1 | 7-5 |
| 3 One Time Willard | $50.00 | $91.00 | $91.00 | 90-1 | 30-1 |
| 4 Howling Time | $13.00 | $17.00 | $17.00 | 16-1 | 10-1 |
| 5 King of Hollywood | $67.00 | $71.00 | $71.00 | 70-1 | 30-1 |
| 6 White Abarrio | $8.00 | $9.00 | $11.00 | 10-1 | 5-1 |
| 7 Jack Christopher | $2.00 | $1.80 | $1.80 | 4-5 | 3-2 |
| 8 Benevengo | $12.00 | $41.00 | $41.00 | 40-1 | 20-1 |
| Source: BetMakers | |||||
| Prices include $1 stake | |||||
| $2.00 = even money | |||||
| Open: Opening fixed odds | |||||
| Fri.: Fixed odds Friday evening | |||||
| Sat.: Fixed odds Sat. morning | |||||
| Frac.: Fixed odds as fraction | |||||
| ML: Pari-mutuel morning line |
The debate was stoked first this week by Brad Thomas, a public handicapper for more than 40 years who writes the pari-mutuel morning line at Monmouth Park.
Defending his decision to install Taiba as the favorite, Thomas told Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Thursday, “Bob Baffert owns Monmouth Park. He owns the Haskell. He’s coming back from a major, major incident in his career. The public understands that they are going to respond to it. Baffert understands it. He’s going to respond to it. He’s not sending anything to Monmouth Park that he does not feel is ready.”
The incident, of course, was a 90-day suspension brought on by Medina Spirit’s failed drug test after last year’s Kentucky Derby. Taiba brought a 2-for-3 record to the Jersey Shore, winning his debut and then the Santa Anita Derby (G1). In his last start, the $1.7 million Gun Runner colt wilted against the blistering early pace to finish 12th in the Kentucky Derby.
Thomas continued making his case for Taiba by pointing out Jack Christopher, a two-time Grade 1 winner, never has raced the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Haskell.
“The public understands that the other horse hasn’t even won around two turns, another eighth of a mile,” Thomas said. “If he winds up favored, so be it. It means there’s a major, major move on that horse, and a morning line is meant to allow people to react to circumstances. The only horse a morning-line maker who works for a racetrack could make the favorite was Taiba. Simple as that.”
Baker admitted Taiba is generating the steam, albeit a small fraction so far of what BetMakers will handle by post time.
“We’ve taken more money on Taiba, probably 2-1 the amount of money of Jack Christopher,” he said. “So we’re holding twice as much money on Taiba as we are on Jack Christopher. The market interest is definitely with the Bob Baffert-trained Taiba.”
So why wouldn’t the money make Jack Christopher the favorite? Because in fixed odds, exposure is as much or more of a factor in setting the market. As such, bets on Taiba may have been lured by the value of locking in odds that were as long as 5-2 when BetMakers started booking the Haskell on Wednesday. Conversely, horseplayers may have thought twice about taking Jack Christopher at a much shorter price than he was showing on the pari-mutuel morning line.
“We opened Jack Christopher even money, but a lot of that was the marketing, to be truthful,” Baker said. “Being our first $1 million race we thought it was much better to see black dollars next to a horse’s name than odds-on. Our modeling has him around $1.60 (4-5). But the $2.00 (even money) that we went out was a very fragile $2.00. We’ve got him marked a lot shorter.”
All the while, BetMakers has been taking an increasing flow of money that will be the most it has handled since it established fixed-odds, horse-race wagering in New Jersey on May 6. While the pari-mutuels are available both on site and online via advanced-deposit wagering, the BetMakers market has been open only at the track.
“We’ve almost got to a half-million dollars turnover now,” Baker said. “I think the numbers that we’re talking now are going to have a couple zeroes on the end of them as soon as we get online (with a mobile app), which is about on par with what we thought. We definitely didn’t go about setting any world records.”
BetMakers, which is a Horse Racing Nation sponsor, targeted this weekend to launch an app that would make fixed-odds betting available across New Jersey.
“The team is working phenomenal hours to try to get this up and running by (Saturday),” Baker said. “If that happens, obviously people can start betting online. That’s when we really start to see the program developing the way we want it to.”
Because the Monmouth pari-mutuels and BetMakers fixed odds represent separate markets, it is entirely possible there could be two favorites by the scheduled post time of 5:45 p.m. EDT.
One thing is virtually certain. It will be hot at that hour. The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, N.J., which looks after the Jersey Shore, forecast a high of 92 degrees with an afternoon sea breeze blowing 5-10 mph.
It got to 96 degrees with a slight breeze Friday, when racing went off without interruption. That was what track bosses were hoping for Saturday rather than a repeat of Haskell day three years ago, when the card was interrupted for nearly five hours because it got too hot. That day the Haskell was not run until 8:12 p.m., 10 minutes before sunset at a track that does not have lights.