Harlan’s Holiday 2021: Odds and analysis

The $150,000, Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream Park on Saturday drew a field of six older males who will race 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Headlining the field is the 2020 Canadian Horse of the Year Mighty Heart, who will make his first career start in Florida.

The Harlan’s Holiday is carded as race 9 out of 11 with, post time scheduled for 3:59 p.m. EST.  Here is a full-field analysis with odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff.

1. Mighty Heart (8-5 – Dramedy – Josie Carroll / John Velazquez – 15: 6-2-2 - $1,059,290) This Ontario-bred is the leading money winner in the field with more than $1 million earned. Last month, Mighty Heart won the Autumn (G2) on the Tapeta at Woodbine. In 2020, he won the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown – the Queen’s Plate at Woodbine and the Prince of Wales at Fort Erie. He was the 2020 Sovereign Award winner as Canada’s Horse of the Year and top 3-year-old. Mighty Heart’s victories were on dirt and Tapeta while hitting the board in 10 of 15 career starts. He has been preparing for his first start at Gulfstream Park at Palm Meadows training center. His pace-pressing style should suit him well to racing at The Florida track. Top choice.

2. Blue Steel (20-1 – Will Take Charge – Jeff Hiles / Paco Lopez – 35: 9-5-2 - $188,125) This veteran 5-year-old is the winner of 5 out of his last 6 starts, which were run at five different tracks. There were two victories in $5,000 starter allowances at Belterra Park and a $10,000 optional claimer at Keeneland in the spring. Aftre a layoff, Blue Steel came back in November to win a low-level claimer at Indiana Grand and most recently the $8,000 restricted race in the Claiming Crown at Gulfstream. This will be only the second time that he has run in a stakes race. Toss.

3. Twenty Twice (20-1 – Honor Code – Jack Sisterson / Julien Leparoux – 8: 2-1-1 - $124,073) Calumet Farms will send Twenty Twice into this Grade 3 after three uncompetitive finishes in allowance races in his only starts in 2021. Twenty Twice ended 2020 with a maiden and an allowance victory at Churchill Downs. After the those wins, he was away from the races for 10 months. Trainer Jack Sisterson has pulled big upsets with Calumet horses in the past, but they usually had back class. Toss.

4. Eye of a Jedi (9-2 – Eye of the Leopard – Steve Budhoo / Javier Castellano – 35: 6-7-7 - $374,358) This 6-year-old gelding won the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream in March by five lengths going nine furlongs. He was given six months off after that victory and returned on a sloppy track to finish second in an allowance. Most recently, Eye of a Jedi ran in a pair of overnight handicaps, finishing seventh and fifth.  Last year, he finished second in Harlan’s Holiday behind Tax when he was in top form. All but one of his career wins happened at Gulfstream. Use underneath.

5. South Bend (4-1 – Algorithm – Bill Mott / Tyler Gaffalione– 21: 5-2-2 - $576,073) We remember South Bend from his runs in the Travers (G1) and the Kentucky Derby (G1) in 2020. Since then he registered a pair of allowance victories, one at Keeneland in April and the other last month at Churchill. He tried the turf eight times but never got a win on grass. As a 2-year-old he won his first three starts and made five starts in stakes at Gulfstream last year. Use underneath.

6. Fearless (2-1 – Ghostzapper – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 10: 4-3-1 - $484,480) Fearless came back from a four-month layoff to finish second in that same handicap race as Eye of a Jedi. The 5-year-old won the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) in February and then was second in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) behind Silver State and third in the Pimlico Special (G3). He began his career with two victories at Gulfstream. Todd Pletcher has had Fearless training at his Florida base at Palm Beach Downs. Win contender.

Summary: The field of six in the Harlan’s Holiday is unlikely to produce any long-shot results. Mighty Heart is the 2020 Canadian Horse of the Year, and Todd Pletcher’s Fearless already is a Grade 2 winner at Gulfstream Park – and both are in good form for this Grade 3 test. Those two are the top win contenders. Eye of a Jedi and South Bend have past races that give them a chance to get a piece of the exacta or trifecta.