Handicapping the handicappers: Derby picks from my favorites

I'm sure there are other celebrations of the horse around the world as wonderful as the Kentucky Derby, but I'd take 1-10 on there being no better celebration of horse racing.

Part of celebrating is toasting those who do good work and enhance our enjoyment of the game we love. I can think of no better compliment to pay a public handicapper than that I would bet their picks, analysis, tickets blindly. 

These are some of the handicappers I respect most, in alphabetical order. And because it's Kentucky Derby week, a Derby pick from them.

Frank Angst, Blood Horse editorial director, godfather of my daughter, popularized the turf jockey angle.

I've known Frank the longest of anyone on this list, having started working with him in May 2002 at Thoroughbred Times. He's a blast to watch races with and probably, along with the next name on our list, the most like me in terms of handicapping style. He has a great command of the wagering menu and does not waste opinions chasing silly bets.

Kentucky Derby pick: Emerging Market

His improving speed figures suggest a horse that is about to deliver a career-best effort; granted this is only his third start, but he’s won both his races, picked up great experience in the Louisiana Derby, which he won despite a track bias on my ratings; and features an Eclipse-winning owner (Seth Klarman), trainer (Chad Brown), and jockey (Flavien Prat). Beyond the two wins, I love the string of works he’s put together for Brown since the March 21 Louisiana Derby.

Brian Arrigoni, Horseshoe Indianapolis handicapper, hockey player coach, data driven

One of two names on here who have darkened many a door at Canterbury Park, Brian was not fully on my radar until he started working at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which I handicap regularly. His ability to assess horses' chances is exemplary, but I really took a notice to his tickets on Horseshoe's daily low-takeout wagers. He was identifying live long shots, taking stands against chalk and going narrow when that made sense.

Kentucky Derby pick: Commandment

Good post with my main man Luis Saez aboard. Should get a good trip after getting shut off in his last two starts and still winning. Had a huge gallop out after winning the Fountain of Youth.

Pete Denk, Bloodstock agent, Derby Owners Club champion, former Thoroughbred Times co-worker

Pete is one of the most disciplined handicappers/bettors I know. He has a will of steel in terms of being willing to skip playing a race if he's not comfortable with how he's processed the information or if the price isn't right on horses he likes. Pete has a great eye for horses, and if I'm ever in a position to buy bloodstock, Pete would be my first of two phone calls, along with Sean Feld.

Kentucky Derby long-shot pick: Wonder Dean

I came away from my video work this year with two horses in my top tier, Reneagade and Commandment. Neither of those opinions look super interesting after the draw and morning line, so I'd like to share a horse who I think has a chance to crash exotics at a big price: Wonder Dean. He has a great 2-year-old foundation, will like 10 furlongs and is on an improvement pattern at age 3.

Sara Elbadwi: NYRA handicapper/production, orzo enthusiast, Kora's mom

Sara is the only person I've ever hired for a full-time job. I stumbled upon her YouTube videos via her Twitter account before the 2021 Breeders' Cup just in time for me to start at Horse Racing Nation, and she soon followed. Sara is not alone in incorporating replays into her handicapping, but she has a good instinct on how that information will be used by the wagering public. This allows her to take principled stands on horses who will actually be overlaid. 

Kentucky Derby pick: The Puma

Like that he made the first move into the pace in the Florida Derby (G1) and was right there with Commandment. Took a minute to get the first win but really hasn't run a bad race yet and seems to be improving at the right time.

Angela Herman: Canterbury analyst, dad joke enthusiast, B-Dubs regular

Canterbury Park is a fun track to play, but I'm admittedly lost when it comes to that circuit. Whenever I handicap there I tune in to Angela, and at first I was amazed at the long shots she comes up with. Now I'm not amazed. It's clear she's taken the time to learn the circuit and learn the variables that can lead to big prices.

Kentucky Derby pick: Chief Wallabee

The road to the Derby requires so many elements to blend correctly, and, short of being 3-for-3, they have for him. Hard to imagine that he's peaked yet, and I know he's the wise-guy horse, but there's a lot to like.

Scott Shapiro: 1/ST Racing analyst, Badger, my wife cut his hair once

My origin story with Scott is similar to Sara's: I saw his website and wanted to work with him. I've probably sent the most money to Scott in terms of betting blindly into someone's tickets. His Shappy Hour podcast (live on X) is always great discussion of big races coming up, and there is a Wednesday episode with another name in this article.

Kentucky Derby pick: Chief Wallabee

This year's Derby is contentious. I struggled to separate Chief Wallabee and Further Ado. My wagers will be built around one of those two colts winning and Commandment picking up the pieces.