Watch Sam Houston: Premium is on early speed
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We could debate why the Sam Houston Race Park main track has become even more speed-favoring in February than through the previous few weeks of the 2022 meeting.
Maybe it's a changing main track after last week's winter storm. Maybe it's a changing horse population as we move into the second month of the meeting, but that would be purely academic. As handicappers, the numbers speak for themselves.
I enjoy availing myself to this data, because I think it’s easier to handicap who could be on or near the lead than handicapping who will win. Or put a better way, I’m more likely to be accurate in that endeavor, and it’s something worth gambling on when you consider some big prices are often winging it on the front end.
(Similarly, big prices can clunk up for a piece against a hot pace on a track biased to closers, but we're talking about frontrunners today because of the way the track has played.)
A great place to start figuring out pace and who could be on it is the
Horse Racing Nation Pace Report, which, for Thursday at Sam Houston, identifies immediate opportunities in races 1, 4 and 6, a trio of dirt sprints with soft paces.
Race 6 is especially exciting, because No. 5 Smack Attack is 10-1 on the morning line with a 51 percent probability of being on the lead. Adding to the intrigue is the fact Floyd Wethey Jr. is aboard Smack Attack, and he has been riding well this month with a trio of wins on the main track.
With a 50-cent, non-jackpot carryover in the Pick 6 (races 5-10), 12 percent takeout on all multi-race wagers, and an actionable track profile, I am very much looking forward to discussing and wagering on these races with Sara Elbadwi during our live stream that begins Thursday at 6 p.m. EST (about race 3).
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