Hambletonian day full-card selections, analysis for Meadowlands

Race 1 – Continentalvictory | 3YO Trotting Fillies | Purse: $30,000

Hambletonian Day could open with a surprise depending on how speedy the track plays (in years’ past, the front has been good; last year, not so much). #5 Draw The Line should fire forward from this post and work a good trip. She hasn’t offered much late in her previous starts, but she has also raced against much stiffer competition. This drop in class could have her more active late while offering a great price. #6 Upallnight Hanover appears an obvious factor off her easy win in a Tompkins-Geers division back on July 20, and that effort came off nearly a month’s rest. She’s in form and from a sharp barn so she would surprise if she didn’t get involved. #4 Senorita Palema also comes from the Ake Svanstedt stable and, similar to Draw The Line, should go forward early. She’s got enough speed to be competitive with a field like this and should also appreciate the weaker bunch to face. And then I’m unsure of how to use #7 Emoji Hanover in this race. She popped a :26.3 final quarter to miss the Hambletonian Oaks final, so she likely takes loads of play inside of this race and, as a short price, I don’t like relying on her to be extravagant against a lighter group based off one stellar line. 

Contenders: 5-6-4-7

Race 2 – Cane Pace | 3YO Pacing Colts & Geldings | Purse: $248,000

In theory, this race should be a walkover for #3 Legendary Hanover. He appeared to be one of the top glamour boys leading to the North America Cup, but didn’t work the trip in that race. He again didn’t work a trip in the Meadowlands Pace, but in that most recent race he instead showed he’s a truly talented horse. Of course, he’s likely 1-5 inside of this race, and he does face another talented horse in #1 Captain’s Quarters, who is Jody Jamieson’s only drive the entire afternoon (in fact, he’s flying back to Canada to race that night at Woodbine Mohawk Park). Captain’s Quarters clearly came into the Meadowlands Pace ready to roll, but did not receive luck in the post draw. He enters this race off a solid qualifier and should be able to work the necessary trip to play spoiler, though in a short field like this gauging his possible odds is difficult. #2 Mirage Hanover has a fierce closing kick over this track, but seems a degree weaker than the main two in this field. He at least gets a good draw to get a good piece. #4 Captain Luke seems like the next most logical then in a possibly formful race. 

Contenders: 3-1-2-4

Race 3 – Muscle Hill | 3YO Trotting Colts & Geldings | Purse: $50,000

In his Stanley Dancer division, #2 Caballero exhibited incredible interest, but just came short to Situationship. He clearly has the tools to be a good horse, but he does get a little fumbly even around the wide Meadowlands turns. So he does bear risk of possibly breaking stride (incorporate that into what price feels right), but if he can keep himself together through the turns he will roll down the stretch. I feel like the 5-1, 6-1 range may be a good target then on him. #6 French Kronos stayed engaged despite being beaten by Secret Agent Man with pretty much an eighth of a mile remaining last out. He’s clearly fast enough to do well and was third-best to Hambletonian favorite Karl two starts prior. Though he’s an obvious factor inside of this race and, if below the 4-1 area inside of this race, might not be worth a play. But he certainly figures like Caballero. #1 Big Ben Pellini S hopefully offers some meat to the payoffs. He draws great against this easier group and has the necessary turn of foot to perform strongly as displayed in his win on July 8 at Poco#And he also is learning on the fly – he’s only raced five times in his life, with each start better than the last. He’s worth keeping on the radar as a longshot. #4 Fly By should be a reliable one to use underneath. He has backclass and ability, plus this race should be a proving ground of his class. But he appears a win-shy type, so the lesser spots seem more likely for him. 

Contenders: 2-6-1-4

Race 4 – Continentalvictory | 3YO Trotting Fillies | Purse: $30,000

I do not know why anyone would debut a horse on the biggest day on the harness racing calendar, in a stakes race no less, unless they have an amazing horse. I can only fathom this as the case for #8 Sevemearas, but what makes her more perplexing is that her qualifiers have just been good. She’s responded when asked to accelerate and appears good at her job. But is she fit enough this early in the game to be fast enough to beat this group? Reason says if she can trot in 1:54.2 in qualifiers, then she probably can go a second or two faster in a race. But a first-time starter in a race like this remains a huge gamble. Trond Smedshammer is the type of conditioner who can have them ready for something big, but she remains an unraced horse against eight others with nearly a hundred miles under their total belts. Just a suspiciously intriguing spot for her. Otherwise #5 Cool Ma Belle may do better against this weaker group. She is one that has to come from off the speed, so no matter her level of talent she does carry that liability every time she goes behind the gate. #4 Sister Mary Maude may not offer value inside a race like this because she’s won just about half of her races in her career, but she certainly will be in the right place to do well in this race. And #6 Cheval Rapide probably is the next most logical, but is likely only worth using in the exotics. She’s an even type in spite of her breeding (or perhaps consistent with her breeding), and many in this race just look faster than her at present. 

Contenders: 8-5-4-6

Race 5 – Shady Daisy | 3YO Pacing Fillies | Purse; $101,000

Every time #2 Caviart Belle has hit the track at The Meadowlands she has been amazing. She loves to chase horses down the long stretch and has a knack for just going full tilt and motoring for the finish. In that respect, she’s on a different level than this whole field. Everyone else’s hope is that, somehow, Yannick Gingras finds himself in a tough spot. And even then, if Caviart Belle can find clear sailing on the turn for home, she can pull herself from the fire. #6 Canigetalouploup has seemingly surpassed expectations her entire career. I remember her as a 2-year-old just being okay, but then when she won a Grand Circuit race at The Red Mile she has since raced better and better, even winning an elimination of the Fan Hanover this season in an upset. Now I don’t think she’s as good as her stablemate My Girl EJ (probably Ron Burke’s best pacing filly who is not present here), but Canigetalouploup can get into the race in any way necessary and also is trying from the moment the gate unfolds until they hit the finish. #7 Rocket Deo has not really shown that she can take a beating against a group like this. She did win going first over in a Sire Stake back on June 22, but has otherwise done most her best work in these tougher engagements from great trips. She’s another who’s bred to be good and so far seems capable of meeting those expectations, but taking her at a price below 6-1 in a race where she needs perfect sailing feels tough to swallow. Unless she goes off at 6-1. I’m curious then how #1 Miraculous Deo works into the race, because she doesn’t look like the type that enjoys leaving the pylons. So, starting from the pylon post, Todd McCarthy may work a ground-saving trip and then find room to burst through and hit the ticket. She can kick home well and is another one bred to be good; she is a three-quarter sister to world champion Captaintreacherous. 

Contenders: 2-6-7-1

Race 6 – New Jersey Sire Stakes Final | 2YO Trotting Colts & Geldings | Purse: $240,000

At least at this (early) stage in the game, this race has two standouts: #4 Go Boom and #5 Tactical Dynasty. Go Boom has posted solid miles in both of his starts, his most recent effort a win, but he has also shown greenness inside of his efforts. If he hits the track more focused on Saturday, he can definitely win. But #5 Tactical Dynasty appears to have that studiousness Go Boom is currently refining. Tactical Dynasty moved around the track like a true professional in just the third start of his career to also grab the first win of his career, timed in 1:53.2. He already knows what he has to do out on the track and he gets a perfect draw to just roll, but likely takes more play than Go Boom as a result. #3 Don’t Ask For More has also been solid in both of his starts and has room to take another step forward as does his stablemate #1 Nordic Catcher S from that inside draw. 

Contenders: 4-5-3-1

Race 7 – Preferred | Pace | Purse: $50,000

This Preferred honestly is just in title only – this is a good field. I feel like #4 Act Fast has room to perform well at a price in this spot, especially since his tightening effort coming in appears fairly dull – a 1:50.3 fourth-place finish at Harrah’s Philadelphia. But his miles in the Graduate Series say this is a guy with spunk who might revitalize that same energy in his return to The Meadowlands. Plus, he gets a great draw when many of his prime adversaries do not. #10 Coaches Corner is among those with terrible draws. I have no clue whether Bartlett will blast him or not, but this guy stamped himself a freak a long time ago in the MGM Borgata Series. He’s a classy horse who has a wicked turn of foot, which is to say that he should be good enough to overcome the tough draw. My hope is that the bad post inflates his price a smidge, especially with other good ones to play. #8 Seven Colors is a tricky proposition only because he’s supposed to be in the stakes race on the day and not this Preferred, in terms of his ability. But this also is a perfect spot for him to recalibrate from that seventh-place finish in the Graduate Series, so I’m just curious what price he’ll actually offer. If he somehow is like 4-1, that’s possibly a gift. #2 Oakwood Arden IR is an obvious one inside of this race, but in my mind goes off the favorite given his advantageous draw. He can win here, but others will offer more interesting and potentially cashable prices while he will be short in a race that is not a slam dunk. 

Contenders: 4-10-8-2

Race 8 – Sam McKee Memorial | FFA Pace | Purse: $220,000

What a time for Andrew Harris and company to buy a horse like #2 Abuckabett Hanover. This guy always showed some kind of ability, and some of us who may also be writing this analysis may have been onto him much too soon. Now, his agility from off-the-speed seems like an infallible weapon. He will have speed to chase into, he is capable of going a sub 25-second final quarter if needed (and admittedly, if the conditions are right). Even if everyone in this race knows they hand him the race by going too fast, nobody has a choice. Their fates are sealed. The outside three should bolt forward, and Abuckabett Hanover will just sit, licking his chops and watching, waiting for the world to burn before he pounces and reaps glory. Unless it’s a speed track, haha. #6 It’s My Show displayed actual life when racing from off the speed for the first time in his career. He needs this added dimension, for one because his speed missions continuously went unfulfilled and for two he otherwise had no hope against this class of competition. He at least also has speed to get tactically into the race, and the draw favors him to make a methodical move forward, but not to lead. #10 Voukefalas is in a tough spot. He honestly may be able to carry torrential speed from the outermost post; his effort in the William Haughton Memorial supports that possibility. But this first quarter should go in sub-26 seconds, and once the tempo hits those speeds, who really knows how far Voukefalas can go. #8 Allywag Hanover also remains a threat because of his speed. Plus, from this draw, Todd may miraculously plant him into a pocket ride again, and the harness racing world has not seen a horse so devastating from a pocket trip since Bolt The Duer. 

Contenders: 2-6-10-8

Race 9 – Vincennes | Invitational Trot | Purse: $60,000

Tricky race. This really is #6 Lexus Kody’s to lose, not win. Okay, so like, he can win and is probably the most-likely winner in this race. He has shown speed at Harrah’s Hoosier Park that others in this race struggle to carry, so that makes him a clear standout in the field. But he’s not a favorite to get excited for, especially depending on how the track is playing. He’ll try to roll down the road from this great draw but he feels too elementary a winner for a race on Hambletonian Day. #7 Pretender is, maybe, a better horse than he has shown. In his 4-year-old season, he flashed brilliance when he didn’t break stride and now he enters this race with just two starts under his belt, both alright. He’s supposed to be competitive against a group like this and he will have to take a massive step forward in his third start off the bench. But he might be capable of standing to task. #1 Stable Genius was a menace over this track through the winter and stayed competitive in Pennsylvania against the top stock on the Philly circuit (admittedly a notch below this field). But he gets a good draw and has a clear affinity for the surface, so he may offer some life from this spot. And then #5 Asteroid is supposed to rebound from a spot like this. He’s clearly (or supposedly) classier, but I honestly was not impressed with his race in the Crawford Farms Trot. But his first two starts this season were good, so this perhaps is a race for him to hitch back onto the wagon, though at short odds. 

Contenders: 6-7-1-5

Race 10 – Dr. John R. Steele Memorial | FFA Mare Trot | Purse: $160,000

#3 Special Way got bottled into a terrible spot turning for home in the Hambletonian Maturity. With that nightmare now past her, Tim Tetrick likely works a smoother trip for her which is all she needs. She has the kick, she has the class, she just needs the sailing. #1 M-M’s Dream is similar. She can motor home, but needs to be close to the lead. If she has positional disadvantage on Special Way or others here, her kick isn’t substantial enough to get her home. That said, if she’s offering better odds than Special Way (who would be fair around her morning line), then she’s a viable contender. But because of her resume, and because she’s just a good horse, my inclination is she takes more play. #8 Call Me Goo appeared like she was going to power by everybody and win the Hambletonian Maturity until making a rare break in stride. But that isn’t necessarily a surprise. She did easily overhaul M-M’s Dream to win the Armbro Flight back in June at Woodbine Mohawk Park, and has demonstrated how viciously she can charge off a helmet. Though she also has plenty of hype following her into this race, so her price is tough to gauge. I don’t know then how #7 Bond fits. In my opinion, she’s the second best of the Svanstedt mares here and also is at a disadvantage since this is her first start of the year. But she’s such a bold speed type that we know she launches forward inside of this race, so the gamble then is whether she leads them all the way or not. I feel she’s more likely to hit the ticket under these circumstances versus win, but Ake has pulled off these miracles before. 

Contenders: 3-1-8-7

Race 11 – John Cashman Memorial | FFA Trot | Purse: $282,000 

#3 Jiggy Jog S is something special. She’s facing a real test against the boys in here, but every ounce of dominance she’s rained onto her peers signals she should handle this test with savvy. She trotted, trotted, a :25.1 final quarter without being asked. I will be honest with you all reading this… she scares me. #8 Winner’s Bet through this season has shown himself a serious contender for the top trotting ranks. He has flexed speed, but he has always done his best work with a target. The draw is not ideal for him, but he has the necessary ability to overcome this tough spot. #2 Hasty Bid could offer a slight price for the exotics since he does seem a notch below the best of the best, but tries hard enough that he should be in play late. #6 Southwind Tyrion also seems capable of another big effort in spite of his turnaround performance in the Crawford Farms Trot a month ago. Watch to see if he pulls the shoes. 

Contenders: 3-8-2-6

Race 12 – Hambletonian #99 Final | 3YO Trot | Purse: $1,050,000

Okay, I wrote about this race more in depth with my fair odds piece here on Horse Racing Nation, so I’ll leave the cliff notes here. #3 Highland Kismet is a good horse. In his last two starts, he’s been a good horse despite not winning. He should have more gate speed inside of this spot and a chance to fire late. #9 Private Access should fire forward, and as long as he’s close he is a threat as an exotics contender. #1 Karl has a tall task to prove he’s great. And maybe he is great? But he’s also going to take a ton of play with possibility still existing that he is not great, but just good. #8 Sig Sauer has a tough trip to navigate from this spot, but he clearly is a solid racehorse. But he’s received plenty of wise-guy buzz so who knows if he actually reaches a good price. 

Contenders: 3-9-1-8

Race 13 – New Jersey Sire Stakes Final | 2YO Trotting Fillies | Purse: $240,000

#7 Kendra has shown decent maturity and speed for this early in the season. She coasted to a 1:53.3 win two start ago and then wove through traffic under wraps to notch a third in her most recent start. Her handiness and speed are terrific assets from this draw. #4 Wallies Dolly has demonstrated a good turn of foot that should be useful from this draw in the event the speed doesn’t hold. #5 Torrisi has similarly shown a solid late kick that can earn her a good check. #6 Champagne Problems also seems like a sharp one, but she’ll have to demonstrate a bit more speed inside of this spot. 

Contenders: 7-4-5-6

Race 14 – Hambletonian Oaks #54 | 3YO Filly Trot | Purse: $525,000

Believe it or not, I also wrote more in-depth thoughts on this race for a different piece on Horse Racing Nation! So I’ll keep this brief: #9 Date Night Hanover may be a good price with a good kick. But also #6 Buy A Round may be a good price with a good kick. Plus watch if she pulls the shoes. #7 French Champagne will have speed and, as long as she shows that speed, she should be involved late. #2 Warrawee Michelle should also have more to offer inside of this race, which may either be a great betting opportunity or a level board. Either way, too much can happen in this race to side with the chalk. 

Contenders: 9-6-7-2

Race 15 – Lady Liberty | FFA Mare Pace | Purse: $146,000

I really do not understand why I see so many voices against #7 Twin B Joe Fresh in this spot. Twin B Joe Fresh has shown no weakness this year. None. Zilch. Nada. Sure, she seemed the second fiddle last year, but that was last year. This is a horse that’s smoother with herself, that better knows how to make herself go fast. She’s just a better horse. And sure, she’s going to offer a short price here, but she has not given any sign that she does not deserve respect here. Plus, if anybody could upset here, #1 Silver Label appears the most likely. She’s getting sharp at the right time – a course correction since she was great last year and hit some potholes along the road (metaphorically). She gets a great draw here and will at least offer a slight price, but taking anything below 9-1 would not be worth it. #3 Sylvia Hanover can be involved, sure, but I’m not reading much out of that Clara Barton win beyond that Sylvia Hanover is still a good horse. Still being a good horse does not mean she’s going to beat Twin B Joe Fresh in this spot just because she was the better horse last year. Plus, her confidence-boosting victory is only going to hurt her price as the counteroffer to the favorite. I just see no upside of using Sylvia Hanover as a win candidate inside this race, but all season long she has at least demonstrated she’s among the best of the division. #5 Prohibition Legal also seems alright, too, and she still has a chance to prove herself after the clear hiccup she endured in the Roses Are Red eliminations. 

Contenders: 7-1-3-5

Race 16 – N/W $14,000 L4 CD | Pace | Purse: $18,000

They call this race the “Traffic Buffer Derby”, though getting out of the parking lot will still be a nightmare because Real Madrid and Spain are playing at Met Life Stadium that night. But, I mean, I don’t know. I don’t feel I have a great read on this race. #6 Primary Colors seems too obvious, but he also is a good horse and one that seemed bound for higher than overnight company. So he’s either entering here either off a pop-up show or that 1:48 mile is a sign that he’s getting back on track. He’ll be a short price though. I at least know #9 Stonebridge Reef won’t offer a low price here, and he’s been in good form of late against similar. He can work into the race in spite of the draw and should at least be enough of a longshot where landing him onto exotics is lucrative. #8 Nicholas Beach is also a classy veteran who seems back on track after six starts this season. He belongs against this group. #7 Grand Cayman maybe gets a piece of this race, too, if he gets some speed to chase down. He’s been racing at a career-best level of late, so he can keep that improvement rolling. 

Contenders: 6-9-8-7

Coverage of The Hambletonian is sponsored by The Hambletonian Society and The Meadowlands.