Hambletonian Oaks fair odds: Make sense of strong field

I want to start by saying I love harness racing. This sport is so enamoring and engrossing, and it has left an indelible mark on my life. That said, I also want to share some of the things I wish I were doing instead of facing the impossible task of assigning fair odds for the brain-melding $525,000 Hambletonian Oaks, carded as race no. 14 on Saturday at The Meadowlands.

I would much rather be:

• Eating a delicious meal, perhaps some leftover enchiladas from my favorite Tex-Mex restaurant;
• Playing one of the variety of video games gathering dust by my variety of video game consoles, also gathering dust;
• Mowing the lawn (where I live gets to around 90 degrees with lots of humidity);
• Making a fair-odds line for absolutely any other race on this card;
• Forklift operating (but I’ll be honest, I always want to operate a forklift).

To the contrary, I do not recall as deep and even a field for this race in my entire life of 25 years, and I’ve seen a lot of Hambletonian Oaks.

I watched from the rail in 2012 when everyone was wondering, "Personal Style? Where the hell is Check Me Out?"

I was trackside in Bee A Magician’s romp in 2013.

I remember seeing Jimmy Takter pull the shoes on Lifetime Pursuit and wondering. "Hmm, that’s interesting" before letting out an "Ah, damn it!" when she won at 7-1.

I also stood in the press box of the old grandstand, that titanium fossil, and watched George Brennan swoop by the field in 2011 to pull a 24-1 upset with Bold And Fresh.

Of all the Hambletonian Oaks I’ve seen, the 2011 edition is the closest to capturing the energy of this year's 54th renewal.

And this race has hard hitters. The 2011 edition had a pair of European-trained talents in Crys Dream and Iron Lady. But that edition also had other good fillies, such as Ray Schnittker’s Jezzy, who overcame post 10 to finish fourth, and Lady Rainbow, a Rick Zeron pupil who had tons of hype followed by a shallow disappointment when her incredible rally came a half-length short of Bold And Fresh at the finish.

This race, in a near splitting image of Karl in the Hambletonian, is the proving ground for Annie Stoebe’s Elista Hanover.

If any horse has a good chance of being favored here, the filly risking a 10-race win streak off an elimination win probably holds that honor.

Elista Hanover has been stellar in her last two starts, romping home in a Tompkins-Geers division and then uncorking a 54.3-second back half to win her Oaks elimination. At the same time, she was a good horse who got a great drive inside of her elimination, and the same applies to the other elim winners R Melina and Allegiant.

So we're dealt this race that has three elimination winners who are good horses and possibly great horses, but who will take more money while not getting truly battle tested inside of their elimination. This is a race where all 10 horses have a chance to win.

Of the other two elimination winners, Allegiant has shown more upside, to my eye. Perhaps I have a bias having watched her crush the Oak Grove track record under a chokehold last season, but she’s always been a speedy type who has the chance to take flight. R Melina, meanwhile, needs a perfect drive both to stay flat and be involved. Her best races have come from opportune moves when the coals cool, but she likely doesn’t have that goldilocks zone to pounce into in this race.

Date Night Hanover and Buy A Round also should offer great efforts. Buy A Round tried a first-over blitz instead of following cover in her elimination and reasonably leveled off to just make the final. But she likely will have her shoes pulled on Saturday and, pair that with her getting a helmet to follow, could have a devastating turn of foot in the stretch. Date Night Hanover also should offer late speed; she’s probably the next-best closer in this race and interestingly was Dexter Dunn’s choice over the in-form French Champagne. She’s been nursed into the race well in her last two starts, but her Zweig Memorial effort says she’s a serious racehorse.

Warrawee Michelle and Miss I La should be live long shots, at least for the underneath parts of the ticket. Warrawee Michelle makes her second start following a minor throat operation, and she showed much better late interest in her Hambletonian Oaks elimination as a result. She gets a great draw to try and work a good trip as does Miss I La, whose best work has come from launching and chasing. She made the Oaks final purely on Joe Bongiorno’s willingness to send this speed type, so why change tactics when you have the best draw to fire for a good position?

French Champagne should similarly offer loads of early speed, and maybe Drawn Impression as well. Andy Miller picks up the drive on French Champagne, which does signal that she could hot-foot off the wings of the gate. Drawn Impression similarly has speed, but, depending on how James MacDonald’s drive goes with Luc Blais trainee Private Access in the Hambletonian final, he might try a more methodical move out of post 10.

And then two cool facts about Paulina Hanover. If she’s able to pull off a win in the Hambletonian Oaks, she would follow in her dam Personal Style’s footsteps of pulling a massive upset. She also would be the only other Hambletonian Oaks winner to be out of an Oaks-winning dam. Paulina Hanover would enter a company occupied only by the late, great Moni Maker, who was the foal of 1988 Oaks winner Nan’s Catch.

Coverage of the top standardbred races at Horse Racing Nation is made possible in part through a sponsorship by the Hambletonian Society.